Kazakhstan, the ninth largest wheat exporter in the world, announced that it would ban the export of 1 1 kinds of agricultural products such as wheat, carrots, sugar and potatoes. Serbia stopped exporting sunflower oil and other commodities; Vietnam, the world's third largest rice exporter, said it would suspend signing new rice export orders; Exports from Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer, also slowed down. In addition, as the world's largest rice exporter, India's exports have also stagnated due to "sealing the country". Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, recently revealed that it does not rule out the implementation of the export ban. Once Vietnam's export restriction order was promulgated, it quickly aroused some people's concerns, and even some agricultural products (7.240, 0.60, 9.04%) stocks were affected by the wind. At present, the overall price of agricultural products is upward, and the kinetic energy comes from three aspects:
First, for soybean, corn, soybean meal and other products, the emergence of the inflection point of the industrial cycle is the main reason for the price increase;
Second, in the short term, rice and wheat prices are mainly affected by overseas market supply news;
Third, before this round of rebound, the futures prices of early rice, japonica rice and wheat were all at historical lows.
At present, the Wenhua Agricultural Products Index is around 145. To catch up with the all-time high of 225 points set in February of 201/kloc-0, it has to rise by 55%. In addition, the grain price has risen sharply recently, but it is also within the historical price range, and there is still room for growth of 10% from the historical peak. Recently, the attention of market funds to agricultural products has increased significantly, mainly due to concerns about global food security in the context of the epidemic. The rapid spread of the epidemic has affected the efficiency of ports, transportation and quarantine, as well as the implementation of embargo policies in some countries, which has caused the market to worry about the future supply of global agricultural products. Short-term hype will end after the inflection point of the epidemic. The relatively firm performance of agricultural products market will lead market hedge funds and hedge funds to allocate agricultural products as long positions, which will make agricultural products and futures products that are already at the bottom perform well in a long period of time, and are easy to rise and difficult to fall.