China's exports in September (in US dollars) increased by 9.9% year-on-year, expected to increase by 9%, and the previous value increased by 9.5%; imports increased by 13.2% year-on-year, expected to increase by 0.1%, and the previous value fell by 2.1%; trade The surplus was US$37 billion, compared with the previous value of US$58.93 billion.

Export data continued to rebound strongly in September, with overall exports slightly exceeding market expectations. The gradual recovery of overseas economies has promoted export data to improve. Import data exceeded market expectations. The low base effect in the same period last year, domestic economic recovery and RMB appreciation may be important factors.

China's exports in September (in US dollars) increased by 9.9% year-on-year, expected to increase by 9%, and the previous value was 9.5%; imports increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and were expected to increase by 0.1%, and the previous value fell by 2.1%; trade The surplus was US$37 billion, compared with the previous value of US$58.93 billion.

1. Exports continued to rebound, but sustainability is questionable

Export data continued to rebound strongly in September, with exports in U.S. dollars increasing by 9.9% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, hitting a record high in April 2019 A new high since last month, exports as a whole slightly exceeded market expectations, and the gradual recovery of overseas economies has pushed export data to improve. Judging from the PMI data of major overseas countries in September, the Eurozone rebounded significantly, recording a manufacturing PMI of 53.7%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month; the US PMI fell slightly. The prosperity of most Asian countries has recovered. India's PMI continued to improve significantly, increasing by 4.8 percentage points from the previous month to 56.8%; Japan's manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.7%. High-frequency data shows that the comprehensive index of export container freight rates continues to rise, mainly driven by the improvement of US-European routes, the partial recovery of overseas demand and various domestic policies to stabilize foreign trade, which have supported imports and exports.

Looking at different countries, exports to ASEAN and the United States continued to be strong, with export growth rates increasing by 1.5 and 0.8 percentage points respectively; exports to the EU slowed down by 1.3 percentage points, mainly due to the effectiveness of European epidemic prevention and control. Better, the steady recovery of the manufacturing industry has narrowed the gap between supply and demand, and the export substitution effect has weakened.

2. The economy gradually recovered and imports exceeded expectations

In September, imports in US dollars were 13.2% year-on-year, an increase of 15.3 percentage points from the previous month. The data exceeded market expectations and was lower than the same period last year. Base effect, domestic economic recovery and RMB appreciation may all be important factors. With proper epidemic prevention and control, my country has taken the lead in resuming work and production in the world, and its domestic economy has continued to recover steadily, driving a recovery in imports. The domestic manufacturing PMI index overall improved in September, with both supply and demand recovering. The arrival of the traditional peak consumption season, holiday effects and the relaxation of consumption restrictions have provided support for economic recovery. The new export order index and import index in September were 50.8% and 50.4%, which were 1.7 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the previous month respectively, which also pointed to the continued recovery of import and export trade.

Looking at different countries, my country's imports from the United States, Europe, Japan and ASEAN all increased year-on-year in September. In terms of imports of major industrial products, crude oil imports continued to recover at 17.6% year-on-year; iron ore imports rebounded slightly, recording 9.2% year-on-year; copper imports remained high, at 60.5% year-on-year.

The recent continuous appreciation of the RMB has also been beneficial to imports. The year-on-year decline in the RMB exchange rate in September expanded by 2.5 percentage points compared with the previous month. In addition, the month-on-month growth rate of imports in September last year was the lowest in the past five years. The low base also contributed to the sharp rise in import data this time.

This article comes from GF Futures