It has been 20 years since China Stock Market opened at 1990. Looking back over the past 20 years, the bull-bear alternation in China stock market is basically manifested by the "symmetrical beauty" of ups and downs. Here, the author divides these 20 years into four stages: 1000 axis stage, 1000 bottom stage, 1500 bottom stage and new axis confirmation stage. \x0d\ (1) The first stage of China stock market: the value axis stage of 1000 points (which takes six years) \ x0d \ 1990- 1996. The value axis of China stock market has always been 1000 points. In the past six years, China stock market has experienced three frequent ups and downs. \x0d\( 1) The first round of ups and downs: 100 points-1429 points -400 points (down more than 50%)\x0d\ and 1990 19 February. On May 26th, 1992, the Shanghai Composite Index soared to 1429, which was the "peak" of the first big bull market in China stock market. In a year and a half, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 1300 points or more. Then the stock market quickly fell back, causing panic. Five months after the plunge, in June1992165438+10/6, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 400 points, almost returning to its original shape. \x0d\(2) The second round of ups and downs: 400 points-1536 points -333 points (down more than 50%)\x0d\ The Shanghai Composite Index set sail from the low of 400 points at the end of 1992 and started the second round of ups and downs. This time, the surge came even more violently, rising from around 400 points to1February 993 1536.82 points (the Shanghai Composite Index stood above 1500 points for the first time). In just three months, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1 15. The stock index stood above 1500 for four days, then turned around and continued to fall. This time, there was basically no resistance, but the decline time was longer than the previous round, and it continued to fall 17 months. On July 29th, 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest point of this round of market, closing at 333.92 points. \x0d\(3) The third round of inflation and plunge: 333 points-1053 points-5 points 1 2 points (down more than 50%)\x0d\ As a result of three major policies to rescue the market,1August 19941day started again. Then a longer bear market began. Until 199665438+1October19, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest point of 5 12.80. This round of decline took 16 months in total. \x0d\ (2) The second stage of China stock market: the bottom confirmation stage of 1000 (it took 9 years) \x0d\ Until1February 2, 997/0/day, China stock market stood at 1000 again, which is a. On June 6, 2005, although the Shanghai Composite Index once broke through the 1000 mark in intraday trading, the stock index still stubbornly closed above 1000 on that day. \x0d\ From 1996 1 to June 2005, China stock market experienced the fourth round of ups and downs. Its main symbolic significance is that this round of ups and downs broke through the historical "box top" of 1500 points and turned the "value axis" of 1000 points into a new market. \x0d\(4) The fourth round of inflation and plunge: 5 12-2245-998 (with a drop of more than 50%)\x0d\ 1996, this big bull market quietly unfolded in the disclosure of regular annual reports. The Shanghai Composite Index 1996 65438+ 10/9 started above 500 points. On 2001June 14, the Shanghai Composite Index hit an all-time high of 2245 points. The bull market has accumulated more than 300% in five years! Since then, it has officially declared the real end of this bull market in China, which lasted for five years. \x0d\ In the rising channel of the fourth big bull market, its "twists and turns" market perfectly dissolved the bubbles gathered in the process of staged stock market inflation. This is very conducive to the continuation of the bull market: 5 12 (1996 65438+ 10 month)-15 10 (1997 May)-/kloc-0. At the same time, it also shows a symmetrical decline: 2245 points-1500 points-1200 points-1000 points. It is the ups and downs of the bull market that lead to its ups and downs. It is also the case that this bull and bear market can last for 9 years. This is the only "slow bull and slow bear" mode experienced by China stock market in the past 20 years. \x0d\ (3) The third stage of China stock market: 1500 bottom confirmation stage (which lasted for three years) \ x0d \ In the second half of 2005, China stock market consolidated above 1000, regaining confidence, and once again opened the prelude to the most violent fifth round of ups and downs in China stock market in 20 years. \x0d\(5) The fifth round of ups and downs: 998 -6 124-1664 (down more than 50%) \ x0d \ On June 6, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1000, with a minimum of 998.23. Compared with 2245 points on June, 20065438 14, the total decline was more than 50%, marking the official establishment of the bottom of this bear market. \ x0d \ 2005 the second half of 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index started a new round of super bull market around 1000. On May 9, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index finally stood at 1500 again. On October 20th, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 2000 points. \ x0d \ 2006 June 65438+February 14, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a record high for the first time, closing at 2249. 1 1. Eight trading days later, at 65438 on February 27th, 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to the 2500 mark for the first time. On February 26th, 2007, the market stood at the 3000 mark for the first time. On May 9, 2007, the market stood at the 4000 mark for the first time. On August 23, 2007, the market stood at the 5000 mark for the first time. \ x0d \ 2007 June 65438+1October 65438+May, the market stood at 6000 points for the first time. The next day hit a record high of 6 124. The market only stood at 6000 points for three days and then turned down, marking the official end of this bull market. \x0d\ In this bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index soared from 65438+2245 on February 4th, 2006 to 10 on October 6th, 2007, and it only took 10 months; However, in the next big bear market, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged from 6 124 to 2,245, which just took 10 months. This is the true "symmetrical beauty" of China stock market! \x0d\ However, things are far from over. On June 28th, 2008, 10, China stock market continued to plummet to 1664, revealing the absolute bottom of this bear market! Some people say that it should be almost enough to fall from 6 100 to today's 1600; However, some people say that it will at least fall below 1500. What's more, some people predict that this bear market will fall to 1200 or try again at the bottom of 1000. Fortunately, all this is just the imagination or pessimism of a few people. \x0d\ 1664 o'clock, it really stopped! The significance of this great signal lies in: it marks that the China stock market has finally confirmed the historical new "bottom of the box" of 1500; 1500 points finally built the Wan Li Great Wall of China stock market! \x0d\ (4) The fourth stage of China stock market: where is the new value axis? 2000 or 3000? \x0d\ 1500 is the "bottom of the box" of China stock market in the future, which is unbreakable! So, where is the value axis of China stock market in the next three to five years? How long will it take to cross the historical peak of 6 124 again? Will it repeat the mistake that the Japanese stock market failed to cross the historical peak of 40,000 points in 20 years? Or will it return to the historical peak of 5500 points on Nasdaq in ten years? The 20-year K-line chart of China stock market may give us some enlightenment, some inspiration, or some answers. Last reference: The author made a wild remark that the China stock market will fluctuate between 2000 and 4000 points at 20 10. There may not be a real bull market in China stock market in the next three years! Mainly based on the following three background factors: \x0d\ First, in 20 10, China stock market will truly enter the era of "full circulation". With the deepening of the "marketization" reform of the new share issuance system, especially the introduction of stock index futures, the "symmetrical beauty" of the skyrocketing will gradually fade out. What's more, it is a necessary process to spend three years laying a solid foundation, regaining the old mountains and rivers and re-accumulating energy. We can't rush things! \x0d\ Second, the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction will stifle the expansion of industries with high energy consumption, high pollution and high resources, and the profit growth of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises in industries with high energy consumption and high capital will be greatly reduced. Traditional GDP and high GDP growth will no longer be effective, and new profit growth points will be difficult to find in economic transformation and industrial upgrading! The quality target of economic growth will completely replace the simple economic growth rate index. Third, as a barometer of China's economy, the banking industry will enter a consolidation period next year. On the one hand, if banks want to "charge" themselves, they need to borrow the stock market to issue additional capital for the second time; On the other hand, in the post-crisis era, it is a godsend opportunity to expand the capital market and accelerate the expansion of the stock market under the condition of limited bank credit expansion. This can greatly alleviate the huge pressure of bank credit, which is a traditional and single financing channel for enterprises in China.