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Looking at the historical causal cycle, we can imagine what will happen in the oil market and what impact it will have on the Russian economy. All these terrible phenomena remind us of the lessons of the Soviet Union.
2. The Russian Herald reported on June 65438+1October 65438+April 4 that oil prices are known for their unpredictability. Vagit alekperov, president of Luke Oil Company, gave an accurate definition in 1999: "Oil price is God's will." President Putin said in June last year that the price of $80 per barrel was not in the interest of any big player. At that time, badri, Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said that the shale oil bubble in the United States would burst at $90 a barrel. However, now the price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea is around $45, and shale oil exploitation in the United States is on the rise.
3. The 1970s was a period when oil prices rose steadily. The Bretton Woods system collapsed. 1973 The fourth Middle East war broke out, and then Arab countries imposed an oil embargo on the West. 1978- 1979 The Islamic Revolution occurred in Iran, and then the war broke out between Iran and Iraq. Oil prices soared from 1970 to $0.8 to 1980 to $36.83. During this decade, the Soviet Union was relatively rich and peaceful, and high oil prices made the Soviet Union play an important role on the world stage. The Soviet Union was in short supply of food and daily consumer goods, and needed to rely on imports. The Soviet Union, which has abundant energy reserves, no longer acted cautiously and invaded Afghanistan on 1980.
4. At that time, the oil price surged back, but it reached about $30 at 1982- 1985. 1986, Saudi Arabia significantly increased its production to punish other OPEC members for overproduction, which reduced the oil price to 12 USD. The Soviet Union's economy collapsed immediately, and the slight rebound in oil prices at 1987- 199 1 failed to turn the tide.
At the beginning of 20th century, Russia's stability and prosperity also depended on petrodollars. The oil price rose from 12.72 US dollars in 1998 to 108.66 US dollars in 20 13. In recent years, Russia's foreign policy is obviously aggressive. This reached its peak on the Ukrainian issue. Oil prices peaked in 2008, and then hovered at such high levels as 1982- 1985.
In 6.20 14, the oil price reached a high point and then plunged rapidly, just like in the 1980s. Saudi Arabia was the initiator again, although this time for different reasons: suppressing some American shale oil producers in the market.
7. Even if the oil price rises after stopping a series of unprofitable projects and the Russian economy recovers again, the history of the disintegration of the Soviet Union after five years of falling oil prices should be a warning to Russia.