First, the price of urea "roller coaster"
It is not an exaggeration to describe the fluctuation of domestic urea price this year with "roller coaster".
At the beginning of the year, urea rose, but this increase was mainly due to the fact that production enterprises stopped production one after another during the Spring Festival and the downstream stocking increased, which led to short-term supply and demand shortage. After the year, with the start of the enterprise and the increase of output, the price returned to a stable level. However, in the middle of the year, with the opening of summer sowing, the increase in agricultural demand and the frequent price increase of Indian tenders, domestic prices rose, once soaring to more than 3,000 yuan.
In the second half of the year, the state successively "cooled down" urea through measures such as roll call, interview and review. However, due to international inflation and other reasons, the prices of commodities such as coal and natural gas soared, which made the production cost of urea soar, so the price of urea fluctuated frequently, but remained at a high level. Until the end of the year, under the strong control of the state, the price of coal was almost halved, and the price of urea fell back to the range of 2300~2600 yuan/ton.
Second, the "two paradise" at home and abroad
The domestic urea market experienced a "roller coaster", and the international urea rose unilaterally and linearly.
Due to energy shortage, the international prices of natural gas and coal have risen sharply, which has increased the production cost of fertilizer enterprises. Many manufacturers can only reduce or even stop production, so the international supply of urea is tight and has been transmitted to many countries.
For example, in June 5438+065438+ 10, there was a crisis of urea for vehicles in South Korea, and India, a big urea producer, kept bidding. In June 5438+ 10, the lowest price on the east and west coasts was nearly 1000 yuan higher than the domestic price, which once boosted the domestic urea to rise again. In the bid opening in June 5438+065438+ 10, a Malaysian national oil company became a producer at a high price of more than 6300 yuan/ton.
At present, international coal and natural gas prices are still rising, which means that urea prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and will once again increase the planting pressure of global farmers next year.
3. What is the price of urea next year?
This is also a concern of many people. At present, it is the off-season of agricultural demand, and it is reasonable for urea prices to fall back. But what will happen to the price of urea with the opening of spring ploughing next year?
First of all, in the recent central rural work conference, it was explicitly mentioned that efforts should be made to ensure the stability of agricultural materials prices, which means that chemical fertilizers and agricultural materials will remain the key targets of regulation next year.
Second, recently, the relevant departments have issued continuous notices to help chemical fertilizer enterprises increase their production capacity and strive to increase their inventory reserves to ensure the needs of spring ploughing next year.
Third, the current domestic coal price has fallen sharply, the production cost of urea has fallen sharply, and the factors supporting the increase of urea price have decreased.
The word "stable" is the main premise next year, so it is unlikely that urea will experience the "roller coaster" market again next year. The probability of unilateral skyrocketing is not high, and the probability will fluctuate in stages, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited. Overall, the urea market will gradually stabilize next year. After all, the price of chemical fertilizer is directly related to the vital interests of farmers, and it can't stand the ups and downs, otherwise it will directly damage farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain and affect the development of the national economy and people's livelihood.