When domestic corn is still tottering, American corn has come to a "big fryer":
As of April 19, the corn futures in Chicago, USA, broke through $8/bushel in July, once approaching the historical high of $8.49/bushel in September 20 12.
At this price, the US corn futures price has increased by more than 30% this year.
Why did the price of corn in the United States suddenly rise? There are two reasons:
First, the global corn supply has changed.
There are three main corn suppliers in the world: the United States, South America and the Black Sea.
As we all know, due to the conflict and sanctions between Russia and Ukraine, the output and export volume of the Black Sea region have been greatly reduced.
As an important corn exporter, Ukraine's sown area has been seriously reduced due to conflicts, blocked sowing in spring, and lack of fertilizer, seeds and fuel for machinery.
According to conservative estimates, the output of wheat and corn in Ukraine will be reduced by more than 40% this year.
On the other hand, the situation in South America is not optimistic.
Similarly, dry weather also affects corn in South America. At present, Brazil's second-season corn is facing this kind of impact. The second-season corn accounts for more than 60% of Brazil's annual corn output, and it usually does not enter the market until August-September.
In other words, in the near future, the export of the Black Sea will be blocked, while the situation in South America is uncertain, and it will wait until August-September, so before that, American corn will become the main supply force in the global market.
Therefore, the sudden increase in market demand has led to an increase in corn prices in the United States.
Second, American corn has also "had an accident".
Demand will increase, but the supply of corn in the United States will decrease.
On the one hand, the United States is also affected by dry weather, and more than 60% of the United States is in a state of drought, including the main corn producing areas.
On the other hand, due to the high global fertilizer price, American farmers' enthusiasm for planting corn has decreased because corn needs more fertilizer, and the US government has lifted the ban on using more ethanol gasoline in summer. In the current situation of high oil prices, a lot of corn may be "burned" to stabilize oil prices.
The demand for American corn in the international market has increased, but the supply of American corn is also facing the risk of decline, so it is not surprising that the natural price has risen.
Moreover, from the current situation, these factors are difficult to be properly solved in the short term, so it is more likely that the international corn price will fluctuate greatly this year.
What impact will international corn have on China? According to the new agricultural concept, there are at least two effects:
1, which plays a certain supporting role in domestic corn prices.
Although our grain market is not fully in line with international standards, it will also be affected by international food prices to a certain extent.
Especially in the international corn market, the supply prospect fluctuates.
The sharp rise in prices, in turn, pushed up the price of imported corn, which supported the domestic corn price to some extent.
On the other hand, we all know that there has always been a gap between the production and demand of corn in China, which is usually made up by the substitution and import of grain.
The price of imported corn has gone up, and its supplement will be limited accordingly, which is also a favorable factor for domestic corn.
2. The pattern of supply and demand changes, and the staged trend of corn will be highlighted.
Earlier, we mentioned the three major regions of global corn supply, and these three regions have problems to varying degrees, which also means that our corn import pattern will also change accordingly.
Take last year as an example. In the past, Ukrainian corn accounted for the largest proportion of our imported corn, but last year, corn imported from the United States accounted for 70% and Ukrainian corn accounted for 30%.
With the suspension of Ukrainian grain exports, China buyers bought two million tons of American corn at the beginning of this month. With the constant changes in corn prices, it is not excluded that they will consider choosing South American corn.
With the continuous change of imported corn and the fluctuation of domestic corn market, there may be a linkage effect, which makes the corn market show an obvious stage trend.
Obviously, this feature is already obvious at present, that is, corn shows a trend of strengthening for a while, weakening for a while, and the strength is constantly alternating. It is expected that this function will continue to increase in the future.
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