Many people choose to go out for fun during the May Day holiday, and the prices of some agricultural products also take the opportunity to increase. The price of pigs rises to an average price of 7.8 yuan, the wholesale price of eggs exceeds 5 yuan, the retail price approaches 6 yuan, and the price of gasoline Also because of the increase in May Day, increased demand and expected price increases, fruit has become even more crazy.
But just after the May Day holiday, pig and egg prices have cooled down one after another, expectations for gasoline price increases have also changed, and fruits continue to go crazy. What's the situation?
Pork prices and egg prices have been cold one after another
On May 5, egg prices were "cold", and the main producing areas were stable and fell, with prices falling in Hebei, Shanxi and Northeast China. Mainly, the price dropped by 0.03-0.11 yuan. Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui were mainly stable, with a slight decrease of 3-7 cents in some areas.
The main sales areas mainly declined, with prices in Guangdong falling by 0.05-0.13 yuan, Beijing falling by 0.02-0.12 yuan, and Shanghai remaining stable.
The price of eggs has been cold. The author believes that there are several logics: 1. The stocking of the two major sales areas of Guangdong and Beijing has ended, and traders are cautious in purchasing.
2. As the temperature rises, grassroots farmers’ willingness to stock up weakens.
3. The mask incident affects terminal egg demand.
4. After prices in sales areas drop, production areas are willing to follow suit.
However, considering that the overall production capacity of laying hens is weak, egg prices will gradually stabilize. With subsequent transportation recovery and terminal consumption recovering, there is still hope for egg prices to rise.
On May 5, the price of live pigs was also "cold". Except for Anhui, Jiangsu, Hainan, Shanxi, Hebei, Chongqing, Sichuan and Shaanxi, which remained stable, all other regions fell. However, there are differences in the decline between the north and the south. The decline in the north is 0.05-0.2 yuan, while the decline in the south is larger at 0.1-0.5 yuan.
At present, the mask incident is still serious in various parts of the north, which is unfavorable for end-use pork consumption, and the price of pigs has risen to around 7.8 yuan. This price is basically close to the cost price of pig farms, and the losses of pig farmers have been reduced. This means that the losses of butcher companies are increasing, and in order to reduce losses, butcher companies can only lower prices.
On the breeding side, as pig prices have risen above and below the cost line, enthusiasm for selling pigs has increased, creating opportunities for butchery companies to lower prices.
The previous excessive rise in pig prices has almost reached its end, and the next step will be to enter a downward adjustment stage.
It is expected that pig prices will continue to fall in the short term. However, considering that production capacity is shrinking and consumption is recovering, the decline in pig prices will be limited, and it will not be a big problem to eventually maintain it above 7 yuan.
Gasoline price increases are expected to change
In recent times, international crude oil prices have fluctuated frequently. Some institutional analysts believe that considering that OPEC + oil production increases are limited, demand is increasing at 3.67 million The barrel/day rate is increasing, European and American countries are resisting Russian oil, and the industry has always believed that gasoline prices are expected to rise.
However, several recent changes have changed expectations for gasoline price increases:
1. The epidemic in Asia has not improved as a whole, and the industry's concerns about demand are still strong.
2. The Federal Reserve starts an interest rate hike cycle, and the dollar strengthens, which is negative for oil prices.
3. Countries are looking for ways to resist the rise in crude oil prices. For example, European and American countries use a large amount of grain to process biomass gasoline and diesel.
4. With the domestic epidemic situation recurring, the demand for gasoline and diesel has a downward trend.
At present, the impact of negative factors on oil prices has been reflected. On May 4, international crude oil closed with mixed prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 06 contract fell by US$2.67/barrel, while ICE Brent crude oil The futures 06 contract rose by US$1.75/barrel, and the 07 contract fell by US$2.61, but the decline was more obvious.
If this trend continues, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle on May 16 is expected to usher in the second price cut this year.
The current domestic price of No. 92 gasoline is basically around 8.4 yuan, with the highest price in Hainan at 9.57 yuan, followed by Tibet at 9.33 yuan, and the lowest price in Shaanxi at 8.34 yuan.
The price of No. 95 gasoline is around 9 yuan, with the highest price being 10.17 yuan in Hainan, followed by 9.87 yuan in Tibet, and the lowest price being 8.81 yuan in Shaanxi.
The price of No. 98 gasoline is around 9.9 yuan, with the highest price being 11.53 yuan in Hainan, followed by 10.99 yuan in Tibet, and the lowest price being 9.61 yuan in Gansu.
Fruits are crazy
As of April 29, the official statistics show that the average price of six types of fruits under domestic monitoring is 7.78 yuan/kg, which is an increase from April 28. 1.8%.
Fruit prices have increased more significantly during the May Day holiday, especially for fresh fruits that have recently been on the market. For example, the bitter and sweet amla fruit has become an internet celebrity in recent years because of its unique taste. , the price has been high since it was launched on the market, and has now risen to 15 yuan per pound. Although the quantity is relatively scarce when it is launched, the planting volume of amla is not large, and the price is expected to remain strong in the future.
Many farmers also lamented that they never expected that this niche fruit could become popular, and some farmers regretted planting it too late or planting too little.
Another popular fruit is Feizixiao lychee. Feizixiao has just been launched, and the price is very high. The price in the place of origin is about 15 yuan, and the retail price in other areas has reached 30-40 yuan.
This may be related to the fact that after the price of Feizixiao plummeted last year, some fruit farmers chose to change varieties, resulting in a decrease in the production of Feizixiao this year. In addition, it has just been launched, and the overall market volume is not large. By May In the middle of the year, as the quantity on the market increases, the price will generally fall back to about 10 yuan per pound.
Not only are the prices of newly launched fruits relatively high, but the prices of some fruits stored in cold storage are also not low. A typical example is apples. Compared with the end of March, the current average out-of-warehouse price of apples above 80# in Shandong is from 3.05 yuan/jin rose to 3.86 yuan/jin, a cumulative increase of 26.56%; the average out-of-warehouse price of 70# and above in Shaanxi rose from 2.62 yuan/jin to 3.18 yuan/jin, a cumulative increase of 21.37%.
In addition, inventory sales in some areas have ended, and fruit dealers are increasingly reluctant to sell. Coupled with the stimulation of new fruit prices, apple prices are likely to continue to rise.
Of course, there are fruits whose prices have risen crazily, and there are fruits whose prices have fallen crazily. It is understood that there are still hundreds of tons of sugar-coated oranges in cold storage in Guangxi. Local fruit farmers say they cost less than 50 cents per catty. People want to know that the Black Beauty Watermelon, which was launched recently, has also dropped from 3 yuan in late April to 1 yuan now.
On the one hand, this is affected by the impact of other fresh fruits on the market. On the other hand, it is also closely related to the sharp decline in the quality of watermelons, sugar oranges and other fruits in recent years.