On February 2 1 2022, Russia held an enlarged meeting of the Federal Security Conference to discuss whether to recognize the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Lugansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine, and broadcast it on television. At the meeting, the Russian Speaker, Foreign Minister, Defense Minister and other senior officials reported the situation in turn and unanimously expressed their support for recognizing the independence of the two countries. Putin immediately issued relevant presidential decrees and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance with the two countries. The situation in Ukraine has once again undergone major changes.

On the 22nd, US President Biden made a speech, saying that he would impose sanctions on two major Russian financial institutions.

If the situation in Ukraine can be resolved in a short time, given its small economic capacity, it is unlikely to have a huge impact on the world economy. However, the situation in Ukraine has been in a state of chaos since 20 14, and the situation has not shown the possibility of calming down.

So what impact may the changes in the situation in Ukraine have on the world economy?

First of all, it is possible to raise the global prices of bulk agricultural products such as grain.

Among the purchasing proportion of Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, Russia accounts for 60% and Ukraine accounts for nearly 30%. The Middle East and North Africa are the largest wheat demand areas in the world. Due to the lack of water resources, local food depends on imports. China accounts for 30% of Ukrainian corn export target countries. Russia and Ukraine play an important role in world food security.

The tension in Ukraine has become the fuse of high agricultural prices. Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, and Ukraine is a supplier of many agricultural products such as wheat and corn. If there is an emergency, the crops supplied by these two countries may be reduced. If the prices of agricultural products soar, it may lead to political turmoil in the Middle East, which depends on food from both countries, and global inflationary pressure may further increase.

Second, the crisis that may affect the energy market.

If the tension between Russia and Ukraine turns into a conflict, the energy market may be affected. About 35% of Europe's natural gas depends on Russian supply. Due to the blockade of the epidemic, the natural gas transported from Russia to Europe decreased in 2020, and it did not fully recover when consumption surged, pushing the natural gas price to a record high. Once sanctions occur, Russia's natural gas exports to western Europe through Ukraine and Belarus may be greatly reduced, and the price of natural gas will rise.

The oil market may also be affected. Ukraine transports Russian oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Platts Energy Information Company said in a report that in 20021year, Russian crude oil exported to the EU through Ukraine was110.9 million tons, which was lower than that in 2020. Recently, due to the tense situation in Ukraine, international oil prices have been fluctuating at a high level, setting a record high in the past seven years.

Third, it may trigger turmoil in the international financial market.

The international financial and energy markets fluctuated sharply on the 24th. European stock markets closed at their lowest level since last June at 5438+ 10. The price of natural gas in Europe soared, and the three major indexes of new york stock market once fell more than 3% in intraday trading. The deterioration of the situation in Ukraine, the accelerated tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the slowdown of world economic recovery have strengthened and resonated, which has had a significant impact on market trends. It is expected that the volatility of global financial and energy markets will increase in the future.

The geopolitical crisis triggered by the sharp escalation of the Ukrainian crisis has affected the global investment market, making it impossible for investors to respond rashly. In view of the close financial and debt ties between Ukraine and Russia and the European Union, the deepening of the Ukrainian crisis first affects the financial markets of Russia and the European Union. It is precisely because of the close financial ties between Ukraine and Russia that the deepening of the Ukrainian crisis triggered a rapid reaction in the Russian financial market.

In this regard, everyone should be alert to potential market risks, and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis is related to you, me and him. Since ancient times, the game between countries has only talked about interests and not morality. As long as the benefits are large enough, any bottom line will become the starting line. Xing, the people suffer; Death makes people suffer.