Mo, 1994- 1995 Mexican financial crisis and 1997 southeast Asian financial crisis cover a wide range.
The financial crisis with great influence also includes those financial turmoil with relatively little influence. These shocks in Brazil,
Argentina, Russia and other countries have never stopped. Let's briefly introduce the three most influential ones.
Shao:
The economy fell from 1990 to 1992 for the first time.
During this period, the Gulf War, the first war after the Cold War, broke out.1August, 990, Iraq invaded. 19960.8888888899 16
Kuwait. The Gulf War took place in February199117-28, and it was a multinational alliance headed by the United States.
Under the authorization of the United Nations Security Council, the African Union launched a war against Iraq to restore Kuwait's territorial integrity.
Performance of the United States:
The process of American economic crisis should be counted from 198710/0/0/019 Black Monday.
From 65438 to 0987, after Greenspan took over as the head of the Federal Reserve, the era of low interest rates in the United States gradually ended.
Start to step into the interest rate hike cycle. With the advance of raising interest rates, the US stock market will be affected by the tightening of credit by banks.
1987101October19, the US Dow Jones index fell sharply, dropping 508.32 points in one day.
The decline rate reached 22.6%, and the number and amplitude of decline were the highest before, exceeding 1929.
10 on the eve of the great American economic crisis, it fell 12.8% in one day. In fact, this time,
A few weeks before the crisis broke out, the stock market began to fall, with the highest point 1987 and 2722.42 on August 25th.
Before the outbreak of 65438+ 10/9, it fell by 17.5%.
The stock market crash also had a chain reaction in other countries. The London Financial Times has 100 stock prices.
19 The index fell by 183.70 points, or 10. 1%, which was the biggest drop in a single day. Credit Suisse Group
The bank stock index fell by11.3%; The federal Republic of Germany DAX stock index fell by 3.7%; French CAC stock
The price index fell by 6. 1%. The price index of 225 stocks in Asia, Japan, Tokyo and Nikkei fell by 620 points at 19.
After that, it fell by 3,800 points on the 20th, with a decrease of 2.35% and 14.76% respectively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed at 19.
Daily decline 1 12 1 point, setting a record of daily decline of 33.3%.
The real economy has little impact and comes and goes in a hurry.
But this stock market crash has a greater impact on the US economy. The growth rate of the entire US gross national product is
In the fourth quarter, 1987 was the highest point, close to 7%, and it has been plummeting since the first quarter 1988.
1989 decreased to 1.7% in the second quarter and nearly zero in the fourth quarter, and 1990 became negative growth.
In 1987, the Federal Reserve Bank took more active measures to save the economy than in 1929. Federal Reserve Bank
By expanding the money supply, banks will promote economic growth. President Reagan is not just like President Hoover.
While observing the situation, we take active measures. After the stock market crash 1987,
Immediately loosen the monetary policy, inject a lot of money into the banking system, and commercial banks have also lowered interest rates to ensure that enterprises
Provide sufficient liquidity to avoid the occurrence of credit crisis. At the same time, due to the establishment of federal deposit insurance
Insurance companies, people don't have to worry about losing everything because of bank failures, so there is no squeeze on bank deposits.
Phenomenon, keep the banking system stable.
The crisis experienced an initial stage of about two and a half years (from June 1987 to 10/0/990), and then,
After three quarters of deterioration and two and a half years of crisis, * * * continued.
Five years and three quarters, showing W+W type.
It was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe.
The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August 1998, the crisis began to spread to other countries. The American stock market is in chaos.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market when the exchange rate of the Japanese yen continued to fall.
Market, absorb the Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators, and stabilize the foreign exchange market at the level of HK$ 7.75 1 USD.
Russia's Russian stock market and foreign exchange market fell sharply, triggering a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis.
International speculative funds have suffered serious losses in the Hong Kong and Russian markets and are no longer able to show their talents.
Reason:
First, with the rapid economic development, the economic structure is unreasonable. For example, Thailand has invested a lot of money.
Real estate, the debt crisis caused by insufficient effective demand for real estate, is an important reason for the financial crisis.
Second, overemphasize the role of export-oriented economy. Undoubtedly, the development of export-oriented economy is the fastest in Southeast Asia.
However, the proportion of export-oriented economy is too large, so the changes in the international market, especially the exchange rate.
In recent years, due to the rising cost of export commodities in Southeast Asian countries, international
Fierce competition has led to the deterioration of the trade situation, resulting in a huge current account deficit.
China's deficit is: Thailand's US$ 65.438 +0.45 billion, Malaysia's US$ 565.438+0 billion, the Philippines' US$ 3.6 billion and Indonesia's 82.
China's GDP is 8.0%, 5.2%, 4.3% and 3.8% respectively. Third, the debt structure is unreasonable and there are many shortcomings.
There are many debts due, the repayment rate is high, and the pressure of repaying principal and interest is great. Fourth, the financial supervision system is imperfect and the finance is open.
The strength exceeds the country's economic strength, foreign exchange reserves and regulatory capacity, and the fragile financial system is hard to resist.
The impact of international speculative capital. Fifth, the long-term prosperity has concealed the deep contradictions in economic operation and weakened them.
People are concerned about and alert to potential crises. Once a crisis occurs, both the government and the public lack thinking.
I want to be prepared and prepared for emergencies, and I am trapped in a helpless state.
Government measures:
Under the leadership of the International Monetary Fund, East Asian countries have taken various measures, collectively known as IMF policies.
In short, the main measures are to implement monetary tightening policy and fiscal expenditure tightening measures, but this method has not played a role.
So Malaysia changed its strategy and announced in September 1998 that it would strengthen its capital control.
The measures of capital control were criticized by western countries at that time. They thought it was against the trend of the times, but it was
However, this measure has achieved good results. Afterwards, people have to admit that the scale of capital control in Malaysia is very small.
The defensive measures that China has to take are either an option, and then people say that this is a successful model for economic recovery.
For example.
The impact of the Asian financial crisis:
1997 the Asian financial crisis has caused direct economic losses of $700 billion to investors around the world.
This is more than twice the economic loss of World War I. 。
After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, Singapore's GDP growth rate was10.5% in 1998.
The GDP growth rate of Pennsylvania (1998) only dropped slightly to -0.5%, while the real GDP growth rate of Hong Kong (1998) was 0.
-5. 1%, You Ya's economic growth rate dropped to-13.7%, Malaya to -6.7% and South Korea to -5.8%.
Thailand fell to -9.4%.
In this financial crisis, Hang Seng rose from1the highest point in August 1997 16820 to 1998.
6544 points, the decline process lasted for one year, with a decrease of 6 1. 1%, of which 1997 10 was the worst, 10.
1On October 20th, the Hong Kong stock market began to fall. 1October 20th 2 10, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 765 points,1October 22nd fell by 765 points.
Continuing this trend, it fell by 1.200 points. It fell 10.45438+0% on 23rd. 28, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index.
1400 plunged to 13.7%, reaching a minimum of 8775.88 points in the whole day and closing at 9059.89 points.
Nikkei * * * experienced two sharp drops, one in August of 1997 and the other in August of 1998.
In August, 2008, the peak value of 1997 in June was 20879, and the lowest value of 1998 in June was 12788, with a decrease of 38.75%.
Dow Jones pointed out that the Asian financial crisis had little impact on the United States, but on June 27,
The Dow Jones industrial average plunged nearly 554.26 points, setting a new record, and the Dow Jones index was only 1998 in August.
There was a big decline, from 9028 points in July to 7550 points in August, and then dropped in September.
7400 points, down 18.03%. In this case, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, and then the stock market rose all the way.
During the crisis, China not only did not devalue its currency, but also maintained an economic growth rate of 7.8%.
It has made universally recognized contributions to the economic recovery in East Asia.
The East Asian financial crisis came suddenly and went quickly. By 1999, both exports and GDP have resumed growth.
In addition to the political turmoil in Indonesia, the stock market has also recovered, even exceeding the pre-crisis level.
Third, the new economic crisis in the United States in 2000.
After nearly a decade of new economic prosperity, the American economy suffered another recession in the new millennium.
The direct cause of this stock market adjustment is:
(1) Coincidence in time arrangement or institutional trap?
According to the relevant laws and regulations of the United States, the major shareholder of a newly listed company in the Nasdaq stock market must be within 6 months.
After that, the stock can be sold. Because many high-tech stocks are listed after the second half of 1999, they are listed one after another.
Before March 2000, the circulation of Nasdaq stock market was very small, and the selling pressure was relatively light, but this operation
The system also laid a hidden danger for the possible stock selling tide in the market after the expiration of the six-month freeze period.
In June, many Internet stocks just froze and expired, and the tax season came. Nasdaq market stocks
The loose degree of chips suddenly increased, causing the stock market to fluctuate and adjust.
(2) Anxiety caused by Microsoft litigation.
On April 3, the announcement of the unsuccessful news of Microsoft's antitrust lawsuit and settlement made investors interested in high technology, especially
The expectation of rising internet stocks has been greatly reduced. In the Nasdaq market, Microsoft has always been the flag of high-tech stocks.
Pioneer. It is the good performance of Microsoft since its listing and the strong soaring share price that led to Nasdaq.
Long-term bull market and rapid rise of other technology stocks. After the news was announced, Microsoft worried that it might face being
The danger of dismemberment was announced. On the second day, the US stock market fluctuated violently. Nasdaq fluctuated more than 500 points that day, and Dow Jones Industrial.
The index fluctuated over 700 points, and the whole market was shrouded in the shadow of decline.
Cohen's speech added fuel to the fire.
When the American stock market was teetering, Duan, the chief analyst of Goldman Sachs, known as the "stock god", the United States.
/kloc-For the first time in 0/0 years, it issued opinions and suggestions to investors to reduce the proportion of high-tech stocks and increase cash positions.
Subsequently, several analysts, including Mobiles of Templeton, the godfather of emerging markets, commented.
At first, the selling atmosphere of new economy stocks further permeated the market.
From March 13 to April17, the American stock market experienced the biggest shock since the 1987 stock market crash.
The Nasdaq Composite Index, dominated by technology stocks, plunged from the highest point of 5048 in March to 15 in April.
332 1 point, with a cumulative decline of 34.2%. During this period, the Dow Jones index also fell by 805 points.
It is 8. 16%.
The process of stock market adjustment:
Before the adjustment, the price-earnings ratio of Nasdaq composite index has reached more than 35 times, and Dow Jones has 30 industrial stocks.
The price-earnings ratio of tickets is about 26 times, while the price-earnings ratio of S&P 500 stocks is close to 27 times.
In addition to the sharp decline since March 2000, the stock market has undergone three major adjustments.
The whole.
First time: 200 1 March. This time, it is due to people's expectations of falling investment and economic recession, and
It is a normal response to the Fed's tightening of monetary policy.
Second time: September 200 1. The decline was caused by 9. 1 1 terrorist attacks. 9. 1 1 attack.
On the first day after the market opened, the Dow fell 684.5438+0 points, or 7. 1%, setting a historical record.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1369.70 points, or 14.3%.
The third time: the fuse of this stock market decline since March 2002 is a series of false accounts of large enterprises.
Scandals have been exposed one after another, leading to a crisis of public trust in listed companies. After the Enron incident was exposed,
A considerable number of large enterprises collude with accounting and auditing institutions to make false accounts and falsely report profits.
The climax between June and July finally triggered a crisis of confidence in the stock market.
These three declines were bigger and longer each time, and finally fell.
After a short rebound, it accelerated its decline. By June 2002, 65438+ 10, the Dow Jones index once fell to 7 197.
Then after four months of bottoming out, it stabilized and rebounded in March 2003. If it's March 2000, Nass
Since the Nasdaq stock market fell, the adjustment of the US stock market has lasted for three years.
1 1749.9 has been down to 7 197, a decrease of 38.74%.
Situation in other countries:
The stock markets of other major developed countries in the world fell almost simultaneously with those of the United States.
In terms of magnitude, the Japanese stock market experienced two stages of decline. The first stage was from the highest point of 20327 in April 2000.
It started at 8 o'clock and lasted until September 10 153.33, 20065438. After a brief rebound, first
The second round of decline began in June 2002, and this round of decline fell to 7604 points, returning to the mid-1980s.
The lowest point since the period, the decline reached 62.59%.
After hitting a high of 18397 in March 2000, the Hang Seng Index fell sharply in April, reaching the highest level in April 2003.
The low point reached 8338 points, a decrease of 54.68%.
At that time, China's securities market was far from internationalization, and the A-share market was not yet open to the outside world.
Although foreign capital is allowed to enter the B-share market, the scale is limited, and the free exchange under capital account has not yet begun. Therefore,
Effectively built a "firewall" to avoid international financial risks and stock market turmoil. Although at 200 1 7
After June, it plunged, and by June of that year 10, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged from June 14 to 2245.
15 14 started a five-year bear market, but this was mainly due to domestic institutional reasons.
That is, the reduction of state-owned shares.
The American economy at that time:
The year 2000 was an important turning point in American economy and stock market.
After the market rose sharply, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States increased by 7% compared with the first quarter of last year, while in the second quarter.
5.7%, 2.2% in the third quarter, and 1.4% in the fourth quarter, almost zero, showing the American economy.
Has slowed down and shows signs of recession. By 200 1, the economic recession appeared, and the economic growth rate in the first three quarters
They were -0.6%,-1.6% and -0.3% respectively, although they rose to 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2002 and 1 quarter respectively.
And decreased to 1.3% in the second quarter.
abstract
As can be seen from previous economic recessions, before the economic crisis, the economies of major countries have been continuous for many years.
The rapid development of the real estate market, overheated market investment and excessive speculation. The bursting of the real estate market bubble often leads to
Since the economic recession (except the new American economic crisis in 2000), the economic crises from 1990 to 1992 have all been caused by Japan.
The bursting of the real estate bubble led to the bursting of the real estate bubble in Thailand in 1997, which led to a sharp drop in house prices.
People's wealth has shrunk and a lot of money has fled.
Every economic crisis often causes the stock markets of major countries to fall by more than 30% or even 60%.
1990 Japan's economic recession, leading to the largest decline in Japan's stock market reached 63%, 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Results When the new economy burst in 2000, Hang Seng fell 6 1%, Nikkei fell 38% and Dow Jones fell 38%.
The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in the United States in July 2007 has caused the US house price to fall by 6% so far.
From the highest point 14 198 on June 2007 to the lowest point 1 1634 on October 22, 2007, the decrease was
18%.
If the American economy eventually falls into recession due to the subprime mortgage crisis, then according to the experience of previous economic crises,
(real estate prices fell by 20%, and the stock market fell by more than 3030%), then the Dow Jones will at least fall to 10000.
Point, only fell by half.