Date: 2008-10-1313: 47 Author: China Cotton Information Network.

Around the 11th National Day, the author visited cotton fields and cotton processing enterprises in southern Hebei and northwestern Shandong, and received warm reception and help from some friends in the cotton industry and supply and marketing cooperatives. I am deeply grateful. I have summed up my personal views, and there are some biased or hasty elements. Please correct me:

Can the domestic cotton output in 2008/09 really be the same as that in 2007/08? I didn't go to Xinjiang this year, so I dare not jump to conclusions. However, from the perspective of southern Hebei and northwestern Shandong, there is little hope for a year-on-year increase in cotton production. There are not many root flowers and mid-term flowers in southern Hebei, and autumn peaches grow well. However, the cooling around 1 1 has affected the growth and quality of cotton, and the cotton picking progress in Dezhou, Shandong Province has reached more than 70% in the future. However, a considerable number of cotton farmers reported that the output of seed cotton declined instead of increasing year-on-year. Jiangsu's yield per unit area increased, while Anhui's cotton planting area decreased significantly. The situation in Hubei and Henan is "outside the wall" in Anhui and Jiangsu, and the high yield in Hunan, Shanxi and Shaanxi is difficult to change the overall situation. The author thinks that the reduction of production in the mainland is at least 200,000-300,000 tons, and the cooling in northern Xinjiang has a certain impact on the picking progress and quality, so the total domestic output in 2008/09 will not exceed 7.5 million tons.

2. Capital is not the bottleneck that affects and restricts cotton processing enterprises to purchase seed cotton. According to the investigation of cotton and linen companies in several cities and counties, they got loans from the Agricultural Development Bank more or less through third-party supervision or property mortgage. However, due to the pressure of cotton seeds jumping up and down and the downward pressure of global commodity futures, they are all wavering and afraid to accept them. For example, a company's model 400 factory only collected 65,400 yuan by 10/day. The cotton gin can't be started at all, just a few 200 and 400 factories buy and process by themselves, but they are basically processed according to the "order processing" of cotton mills, and one car is enough, and they never purchase goods. The author once visited a 400-type factory in Dongguang and bought more than 5 million Jin of seed cotton. The converted markup fee is about 250-250 per ton.

3. Even if the purchase price of seed cotton falls below 2.90 yuan/kg, farmers' enthusiasm for abandoning cotton and growing grain is not high. On the one hand, the investment in planting winter wheat and corn in two seasons is greater than that in one season, and the labor intensity is not small when harvesting intensively. In addition, for some cotton farmers, cotton planting is mostly for "living money", which can make up for family payments at any time after September, and then shift from "preventing inflation" to "preventing austerity" with the domestic economic situation. All commodities, including agricultural products, showed a downward trend and returned to rationality. Prices of corn, wheat, soybeans, etc. They are all undergoing comprehensive adjustment. On June 8 10, the purchase price of corn in Hebei, Henan and other places fell to about 0.80 yuan/kg, and Xinjiang was as low as 0.77 yuan/kg. Throughout the year, the trend of "flat driving and low walking" was formed, and the price of grain and cotton declined to a certain extent, but it did not force cotton farmers to suffer.

4, cotton textile enterprises "hemp pole to fight wolves-two fears". On the one hand, when purchasing new cotton and Xinjiang cotton in 2007/08, the spot price should be kept as low as possible. On the other hand, we are worried that falling cotton prices will knock down the "Domino brand" of the whole industrial chain, leading to a sharp drop in the sales price of cotton gauze, thus reducing the immediate profits. Small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises in various places have difficulties in financing, and private funds and usury have shattered the confidence of some manufacturers to persist or "start again". At present, some cotton enterprises and cotton mills reflect that even if the agricultural development bank loans are paid in full, they will not dare to use them this year. The tight capital chain of enterprises is only a superficial phenomenon, and the serious shrinkage of downstream sales terminals is the key to the problem.

65438+1the huge increase in the trading volume of Zheng period on October 6 and 7 is obviously the short-term behavior of speculative forces such as Zhejiang Futures Company. The news of large-scale realization of capital and the possible acquisition and storage by the state is not very stimulating. With the global commodity market "green flag" flying all over the sky, the domestic cotton market almost staged the drama of "breaking through the Central Plains", but after making a profit on the 8 th, a large amount of funds fled and the "episode" ended. On October 8th, 65438+ 10, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage point and the one-year RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rate by 0.27 percentage point from June 5th, 65438+/kloc-0 and June 9th, 2008, respectively. The benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans are rare in recent ten years, and seven central banks around the world cut interest rates to save the market. According to the author's analysis, for China, the second half of 2008 is not only a prelude to the arrival of the financial storm, but 2009 is the hardest hit. The cotton textile industry will be shuffled out, and the cotton industry in China will be closer to self-sufficiency. Regarding the trend of cotton, I personally think:

1. The downward trend of cotton prices with the whole commodity market will not change fundamentally in the short term. The accelerated decline in cotton prices will accelerate the introduction of purchasing and storage policies, but I am afraid it is difficult to bottom out. There is little resistance to the domestic third-grade cotton break 12000, and cotton farmers will become the "victims" of this game.

1. In some areas, the lowest purchase protection price discussed by relevant departments has been issued, and the picking progress of seed cotton has reached more than 50%. "The daylily is half cold." By the end of September, the provincial branches of the Agricultural Development Bank have successively announced that the new cotton purchase loan amount and loan risk control line in 2008/2009 are 4.8 yuan -5.6 yuan per kilogram (5.4 yuan/kg in Xinjiang). Obviously, both "red lines" are lower than cotton. Under the premise that the planting cost and labor cost have risen sharply, cotton has become the representative of "overcharge three to five fights". The untimely introduction and incomplete implementation of policies have increased the concerns of cotton farmers and enterprises.

2. The online standard benchmark of the new cotton purchase loan of the Agricultural Development Bank is tentatively set as 500 yuan/ton, which can fluctuate according to market changes, and the highest can reach 50 yuan/ton. For cotton supervised by a third party, the maximum amount can be 60 yuan/ton, so the loan ceiling of 1 ton lint is 1 1.200 yuan. In 2007/08, Jiangsu, Hebei, Anhui and other provinces implemented the upper limit of 570 yuan/ton, that is, 1 1400 yuan/ton, which was higher than 200 yuan/ton this year, indicating that the country is also deliberately lowering cotton prices and reducing the risks of cotton enterprises.

3. The premise of purchasing and storing is that "the price of cotton is too low". Hubei Agricultural Development Bank said, "The loan is on the 500 yuan/burden, and the risk control line is not floating 1 1500 yuan/ton (the price of standard seed cotton is controlled within 2.6 yuan/kg)." From the point of view, the ex-factory price of three-grade lint 12000 will be the bottom recognized by the state. Recently, the ex-factory prices of Xinjiang 329 and real estate grade III cotton have all dropped to 12500- 12800 yuan/ton, which is still more than 500 yuan/ton from the "warning line" designated by the state.

4. With the economic crisis airborne in Europe and spreading to the Asia-Pacific region, countries have launched rescue plans. Although the decline of global futures commodities has slowed down, there is still some room from the bottom. Cotton futures are more influenced by economic factors, which is divorced from the pure supply and demand level.

Second, the cotton problem in China lies in consumption. Simply increasing production is only the government's excuse. The real pressure on cotton textile mills is that the consumer market and consumer confidence in developed countries such as Europe and America have shrunk dramatically. The tight capital chain is just a manifestation. Many enterprises said that even if the Agricultural Development Bank is willing to lend a lot now, it will not dare to use it. First, the machine is full, which can only increase the inventory of gauze. Now it is basically produced according to orders, and the loan interest is too high. According to the report of USDA and Cotlook in August, the cotton consumption in China in 2008/09 is estimated to be 110.58 million tons and10.58 million tons respectively, which is at least different from the author's estimate.

In 2007, China's textile and garment exports to the EU accounted for 16.84% of China's total textile and garment exports. Although the RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar, it has been depreciating against the Euro. However, since 2008, the euro has depreciated sharply, reaching more than 10% within one month. China's textile and garment exports have been hit hard, with a large surplus of export quotas to the United States and Europe.

2. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is only the trigger of the global economic recession, which is spreading from developed countries in Europe and America to Asia. China's foreign exchange reserves have greatly depreciated (at least 10%). As a large trade surplus, the textile and garment industry has been hit. It is self-evident that enterprises are facing the embarrassing situation that it is difficult to take orders, difficult to take orders and even more difficult to take orders. I can't live standing, sitting and lying down anyway.

3. Concerns about China's economy in the second half of 2008 and even in 2009 are getting more and more serious. Cotton and cotton textile industry are only a relatively weak link in this environment. For example, China has just begun to be hit by the global economic crisis, and has just begun to pay for Europe and America. This gust of wind has just blown to Tianjin, and it is still more than 100 kilometers away from Beijing. In a short period of one year, the China government has used almost all financial instruments, from regulation to relaxation, from inflation prevention to deflation prevention, from cold reception to passive rescue. Therefore, the author is still not optimistic about the cotton textile industry in 2009, and the cotton consumption capacity is likely to change from a "soft landing" to a "hard landing", which makes it difficult for a considerable number of textile and garment enterprises to survive this "winter".

1, the US financial crisis shows no signs of improvement. Recently, it was announced that American consumer credit 10 declined for the first time in years. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke even said that the US economic growth prospects have deteriorated. What is even more frightening is that all this has spread like an infectious disease in Europe and even the global market. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) called on countries to take comprehensive actions to prevent the global economy from falling into a long-term recession.

2. A considerable number of economists believe that the role of interest rate cuts in solving the crisis is limited, and it may only slow down the economic slowdown and prevent it from falling too fast, but the downward trend will not change. This round of interest rate cuts is the first time that China has synchronized with global central banks. Compared with this, even if there is coordination before, there will be a little time difference. According to industry analysis, this simultaneous interest rate cut is only the first step, and China may be more involved in other simultaneous actions of global central banks.

In 2008/09, both cotton enterprises and textile enterprises are indispensable.

Release date: August 6, 2008 1 1: 34: 59 Selected Text of China Cotton Information Network:

I. Basic information of cotton:

1. Forecast the annual supply situation from the basic information such as planting area, yield and weather.

A: In a:2008/09, 84.68 million mu of cotton was planted, down by 3. 15% year-on-year, and the investigation of grain storage dropped by 4%, including 7.53 million mu in Xinjiang Corps, down by 910.3 million mu, and 35% in Jiangsu.

B: In b:2008/09 B: The output was 7.22 million tons, down 5% year-on-year, including 2.8 million tons in Xinjiang, and the production in Henan and Jiangsu was greatly reduced.

C: There was a lot of rain in Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other mainland cotton areas in the early stage, and the cotton market is expected to be delayed by 10- 15 days. Mainland cotton areas will basically be listed around September 20, and Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places can start weighing and processing around the middle and late August.

D: D: Cotton supply in 2007/08: 760+255 (250-260 imports) +44 (ending-beginning, USDA) =1059; In 2006/07, it was 102 1 10,000 tons, up 3.6% year-on-year.

F: Estimated output in f:2008/09: USDA:773；; ; ICAC:806； This website: 722; Cotlook: 750-The key is the weather in the next month and a half.

2. Judging cotton consumption capacity from the spinning volume and the growth rate of fixed assets investment.

A: By the end of June, the spinning volume this year was17,448,500 tons, and it was not a problem to break 2 1 10,000 tons in the whole year. But there are many questions. In June, the spinning volume reached a record 1.999 million tons?

B: In b:2006/07 B: The total supply of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and acrylic staple fiber is about 8.8-9 million tons, while the supply of cotton is 1, 026,5438+0,000 tons, only 1, 900- 1. Only 380,000 tons of cotton is needed to increase the spinning capacity by more than 2 million tons?

C: In c:2002, 2003 and 2004, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China cotton textile industry was above 1.000%, which decreased to 55.5% in 2005, 1.9% in 2006 and 2007 respectively, and1in 2008.

D: In d:2007/08, did the consumption level of cotton in China increase or decrease? Is it a big increase in production capacity or a high proportion of production reduction and shutdown? We believe that the demand has dropped by 300,000-500,000 tons.

F: The demand of Xinjiang cotton, high-grade American cotton and Australian cotton is lower than expected, which indicates that high count yarn and high count and high density grey fabric have encountered export bottlenecks; In addition, industrial upgrading is blind and too fast.

3. Estimate cotton price from planting, purchasing, processing, cotton by-products and transportation costs.

A: How much did the materialized cost of cotton planting increase in a:2008/09? 70- 120 yuan/mu, an increase of more than 20%. Based on the yield of 500 kg/mu, the price of seed cotton increased by 0. 15-0.20 yuan/kg.

B: What determines the purchase price of seed cotton in 2008/09 is mainly cottonseed price? The price of cottonseed is directly affected by the prices of crude oil, soybeans, corn and other related products. Dollar depreciation, geopolitics, capital speculation-rising is still the theme.

C: The cost of refined oil (93# gasoline generally rises by 0.85 yuan/liter) and the rising labor cost (picking third line and ginning) lead to lint 1 ton, 40-50 yuan; Calculated by 300 kilometers, the transportation cost has increased by about 45 yuan-nearly 100 yuan in total.

4. Analyze cotton and cotton spinning from national policies.

(1) For cotton:

A: Xinjiang cotton transportation subsidy policy, 2007-2065 438+00, needs other measures: is it possible to raise the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton and invest in Xinjiang cotton mill to move back to the mainland?

B: the scope of subsidies for improved varieties has been reduced-the price of cotton seeds has increased, the subsidy area has decreased, and cotton farmers' understanding of "inferior improved varieties"

C: It is an inevitable process for cotton to be imported into sliding duties, from temporary import tariff to the combination of two taxes until it is completely abolished, provided that cotton farmers are given enough subsidies and protection for cotton planting.

(2) For cotton spinning:

A: Properly control the rate of RMB appreciation, and the appreciation rate will exceed 20% by the end of June. The Ministry of Commerce suggested to the State Council that export enterprises should take a breath, curb the inflow of hot money, and let the inflow of hot money and the appreciation of RMB strengthen each other.

The export tax rebate rate for textiles and clothing will increase by 2%. 1 has been implemented since August 1, but the adjustment scope and effect are lower than expected. It seems that we directly subsidize textile enterprises, but in fact we subsidize foreign consumers; 2. It is difficult to reverse the textile situation in the second half of 2008; 3. Become the bottom of the export price concessions for textiles and clothing; 4. Can the tax refund be returned to the enterprise in time?

C: the change from tight monetary policy-inflationary pressure may move towards the medium or long term, and tight monetary policy will continue. The decline in economic growth and high inflationary pressure are the main difficulties. There is little hope for the state to rescue the market with loans in the short term, but the policy flexibility will be enhanced and small and medium-sized enterprises will get some help;

(3) Export situation: In May and June of 2008, the year-on-year growth rate of China's textile and garment exports was 9.67% and -4. 18%, respectively. However, if it is settled in RMB, the year-on-year growth rate will be -0.54% and-12.46%, respectively, and it is bound to make a hard landing in 2008.

Second, in-depth analysis of the cotton situation:

1. Use the basic information to judge the annual cotton trend, accurately make the central axis, and choose the buying or selling opportunity.

A: It is meaningless to judge whether the cotton price is high or low. What matters is the long-term trend. Make a face instead of a dot. In 2008/09, the ginning factory also earned processing fees, and the circulation enterprises had no room.

B: It is more effective to pay short-term attention to the situation of downstream industries (especially the export of textiles and clothing) than supply and demand and cost-cotton consumption has entered a period of stagflation and decline. Some foreign businessmen estimated that the cotton demand in China in 2008/09 was1.020-1.03 million tons, which was 9.5-9.8 million tons.

C: Xinjiang cotton transfer subsidy measures will make the entry of foreign cotton, especially high-grade foreign cotton, encounter resistance, increase the number of foreign businessmen who have obtained domestic management rights, and increase the number of control (at least 300,000 tons in 2007/08, Xinjiang cotton is more than 6,543.8+0.5 million tons, accounting for about 6,543.8+0/654.38+00 of domestic cotton circulation).

D: Will the mainland cotton industry move to Xinjiang? The water level of drinking water and irrigation water in the mainland has dropped (heavier in Northeast China, North China and Northwest China); Daily weight of soil desertification; Although cotton labor is long, its intensity is not great; Xinjiang compresses cotton planting area-cotton planting in some areas is still the first choice.

2. Judging the trend of cotton price from the trend of crude oil and agricultural products (soybeans, corn, etc.). ).

A: In 2007a, global food prices soared by 40%, and rose in 2008 1 quarter 16%. The pressure of global food supply has increased, and 40 countries including India and Russia have issued export restrictions.

B: Developed countries have increased the promotion and development of bioenergy such as corn and soybean. In 2006, the corn used for ethanol production in the United States was 42 million tons, and it will reach 654.38+800 million tons in 2022.

C: The pricing power of soybeans has been lost. Oil plants import more soybeans, and the international grain market has declined. The high fall of rapeseed oil has put pressure on the oil market-under the pressure of inflation, the price of cottonseed still has the power to soar, but it is definitely lower than that in 2007/08.

3. Grasp the general direction of cotton spinning and cotton from the global and China economic environment (main tone).

A: Is macro-control tightening or relaxing? Domestic inflation is caused by external international environment and internal problems of domestic economic structure. Inflationary pressure may become medium-term or long-term, and loans and financing in cotton and cotton spinning industries are "easy to tighten but difficult to loosen"

B: Has the "turning point" appeared in the textile industry? The real difficulty is that in the second half of 2008 and even throughout 2009, most textile enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have been in a state of "zero profit" in the first half of the year, and 1/3 cotton enterprises and 1/3 cotton mills will be eliminated before the end of 2008.

C: Support for some large and medium-sized enterprises may increase, mainly in export tax rebate and import textile machinery tax exemption and credit. At the beginning of July, state leaders conducted intensive collective research in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shandong, and I believe there will be policies later.

Three, cotton trading operation:

1, Using Multi-level Information to Avoid Electronic Disk Risks: Fully Understanding and Applying Hedging

A: At present, there is no futures investment fund in China futures market, and more than 95% of cotton futures are retail investors.

B: The spot dealer is absent, and the hedging power is insufficient. However, 65,438+0,000% of large foreign cotton traders hedged on the new date.

C: The speed of market capital expansion can't keep up with the speed of variety expansion.

D: The Provisional Regulations on Futures Trading still prohibits financial enterprises such as securities companies from entering the futures market.

F: It is necessary for cotton enterprises and cotton mills to raise awareness and lock in the profit space of mature supporting markets.

2. Establish their own information channels-guide the purchase, processing, circulation and sales of seed cotton.

Will 3.50 yuan/kg seed cotton be harvested in a:08/09? The deadlock between cotton farmers and ginning mills is difficult to solve in the short term-draw an interval for the purchase price, 2.90-3.30 yuan/kg, which will be adjusted with the cottonseed price, and the expert = bricklayer.

B:2008/09 B: Who became the main body of cotton business? Cotton ginning mill VS cotton mill, the ability of cotton price to resist risks is declining, and the "reservoir" of circulation enterprises is getting smaller and smaller.

C: Pay attention to ginning cost, and pay more attention to downstream cotton spinning.

3. The ginning factory makes full use of funds-making two waves of market.

Answer: "Fast forward and fast out" during processing, speed up capital turnover, expand processing capacity, and only earn processing fees.

B: Enter the market at the second or third high point after the cotton "inflection point" appears (which requires certain judgment ability, usually in May and June) and conduct a round of pushing up the market.

4. Cotton enterprises clearly understand the situation and unite to fight against "foreign countries"-strive for the pricing power of national cotton.

A: Foreign businessmen regard the operation of domestic cotton as a sign of their status and strength-capital advantage and hedging are their magic weapons.

B: Large and medium-sized cotton ginning mills that are short of funds may be put into the arms of foreign investors.

C: The government should support leading cotton processing enterprises and circulation enterprises in some cotton-growing areas and provinces, and at least hold more than 65% of cotton resources in their hands.

D: Financing channels have narrowed, and the dependence on agricultural development bank funds has continued to rise. Whether it can be distributed before 10. 1, the relevant departments indicated that they would strongly support cotton purchasing and processing in terms of funds, but the key is whether cotton ginning plants and circulation enterprises dare to use it.

Source: China Cotton Trading Network