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May 2006 17- 19 Week Live Pig Market Analysis and Forecast Feng Yonghui/Boya He Xun
Price trend of main pig producing areas in China: falling to the bottom.
In the three weeks before and after May Day, the price of live pigs in the main producing areas did not fluctuate greatly, but continued to fall to the bottom. The price of live pigs in Luzhou, Sichuan remains at a low price of around 5 yuan/kg. The price of live pigs in Hubei dropped from 5.6 yuan/kg to 5.4 yuan/kg; The price of live pigs in Jiangsu fell below 5 yuan/kg to 4.9 yuan/kg. The price of live pigs in Heilongjiang dropped to about 5.2 yuan/kg, 6 yuan/kg in Henan and 7.4 yuan/kg in Guangdong.
Price trend of Shanghai live pigs imported from other provinces: stable at low valley.
Around May Day, the price of live pigs imported from other provinces to Shanghai was still at a low level. The price of binary commodity pigs imported from other provinces dropped from 5.8 yuan to 5.6 yuan/kg, and the price of ternary commodity pigs was 6 yuan/kg, while the local pig price rose slightly from 6. 1-6.2 yuan/kg to 6.4 yuan/kg.
Analysis and forecast: May Day did not drive up the pig price.
As predicted in the previous period, due to the influence of supply and demand, the domestic pig price rebounded weakly during the May Day period, and some areas continued to explore the low level in order to rise.
Supply analysis: Since 2004, with the soaring price of pigs, the stock of breeding pigs has increased rapidly. After a large number of supplementary pens in 2004 and 2005, the proportion of transferable sows rose to a higher level, and the number of live pigs was increased and the supply was sufficient. Although sows were slaughtered in some areas in June 2005, when the price of pigs plummeted in June 5438+00 and June 5438+0 1, and pig diseases have increased since the winter of 2005, the litter rate of sows is low and the mortality rate of piglets is high. Reports of littering dead pigs around the country polluting the environment and pig dealers buying dead pigs are frequently reported in newspapers.
According to Boya He Xun's investigation, at present, a considerable number of farmers have been troubled by low pig prices and pig herds, and it is difficult to track them. They have begun to slaughter and eliminate sows, and the proportion of transferable sows in some areas has dropped significantly, which is lower than the normal level.
Boya He Xun thinks that if the pig price is lower 1-3 months, the proportion of fertile sows will change greatly, and the pattern of sufficient supply of pigs will gradually change.
Demand analysis: With the warmer weather, meat consumption will usher in the off-season, fruits, vegetables and aquatic products will be listed gradually, and the consumption structure of residents will gradually change. This is undoubtedly a negative factor for the live pig market. At present, a favorable factor in the live pig market comes from bird flu. At present, the demand for poultry products is still at a low level. The substitution of pork and poultry products supports the demand and price of pork to a certain extent, but the strength is limited.
Therefore, judging from the supply and demand relationship of the live pig market itself, the pig price in the market outlook is still not optimistic, and the upward momentum is insufficient.
How long should the pig market remain depressed?
Boya He Xun believes that the next 1-3 months will be a crucial period for the pattern of supply and demand in the hog market to change from oversupply to oversupply, because demand will remain depressed for several months, and pig prices will still be difficult to recover. For most farmers, the loss for several months in a row is really a "cold winter". Many farmers can no longer live, killing sows and buying pig farms. If this trend is maintained for 1-3 months, it will eventually lead to the change of pig population structure from the provenance, thus laying the foundation for the arrival of a new round of rising cycle. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the replacement and elimination of piglets and breeding pigs in local farmers and the changes in pig group structure.
Boya He Xun predicts that the hog market will remain depressed for several months due to the influence of demand, and it is expected that it will rise in an all-round way after the autumn, and it is difficult to have a big rise in the short term.
May 2006 18
The price of live pigs began to fall in September 2005, and it has been going on for nearly nine months now. Although the price of live pigs rebounded during the Spring Festival, it did not last long. After the Spring Festival, the market continued to fall, and has now reached its lowest point. As the name implies, when supply exceeds demand, commodity prices will inevitably fall, and the pig market is no exception. Of course, the price of live pigs was repeatedly affected by Streptococcus suis and avian influenza last year, which made the live pig market worse, and the impact was even more vulnerable.
First, the number of live pigs has decreased.
Many rural pig farmers have stopped raising pigs after the price fell last year and observed the market. Although the price rebounded during the Spring Festival, the market did not induce pig farmers to make up the price again. Small pig farmers tear down pig pens to sell sows, and large pig farms are also taking the opportunity to compress, eliminate and update sows. These news can be seen everywhere in pig farmers and the Internet. In addition, as summer approaches, the consumption of meat food turns weak in the off-season, and the price of pigs falls again after the Spring Festival, which makes pig farmers have to wait and see the market and not make up for it.
Second, the price of corn has risen slowly.
Corn occupies a large proportion in pig feed, and its price also directly affects the interests of pigs. At present, domestic corn prices generally rise.
The relationship between supply and demand has changed, and some production areas in the customs will become sales areas. With the further reduction of farmers' corn stocks, especially in the surrounding areas of large-scale deep processing enterprises and along railway transportation, farmers' corn stocks will drop to the bottom or be basically exhausted. In this way, some areas in Shandong and Hebei will be transformed from the original producing areas into marketing areas, and not only can they not continue to provide corn supply for feed enterprises in the southern marketing areas, but they also need to buy corn from other provinces or northeast China for local use. This not only increases the transportation cost and the local corn cost price, but also drives up the corn price in Northeast China. In addition, in the early stage, the fuel price rose, and the railway freight rate rose, but the dealer's arrival in the sales area has not yet increased; However, with the change of supply and demand in the domestic corn market in the later period, the current buyer's market will turn into a seller's market, and the rising factors of oil price and freight will not continue to be digested by the buyer, but will rise together with the corn price in the producing area, making the price increase of corn in the selling area relatively increase.
Third, pork is cheap to the lowest point.
Since the price of live pigs fell last year, the price of pork has not fallen with the price of live pigs. At that time, because of the cold weather, consumers' consumption of live pigs declined and pork rebounded. However, after the Spring Festival, with the gradual warming of the weather, the price of pork has also fallen to the lowest point, and some places are close to the price of vegetables. The decrease in consumption leads to a decrease in the amount of slaughter, which leads to a decrease in the price of live pigs. However, when the weather turns cold and the inventory decreases, the price will rise around 10.
Fourth, the price of piglets is low, and a large amount of feed is reduced.
After the Spring Festival, with the price of live pigs falling again, the price of domestic piglets also fell. According to the information provided by our information officer, the price of piglets in Jiangsu has dropped to about 1.7 yuan/kg. Although the price of piglets is low, farmers have not taken the opportunity to make up for it. The decline in the price of piglets will inevitably lead to a decrease in the stock of sows. This period should be a good time for large pig farms to rectify the sow team. )
Five, laymen quit the pig industry.
The good market that lasted for 36 months induced amateurs to intervene in the pig industry, which of course also led to the decline of pig prices this time.
But for the current market, laymen will not get involved in this industry without understanding the market. As far as I know, many amateurs are consulting this year's pig market and preparing to raise pigs. Without technology and sales, although the price of piglets is low now, it has not taken the opportunity to make up for it.
In short, in the second half of the year, with the internal adjustment of large pig farms and the arrival of the peak consumption season, the price of live pigs will pick up at 10.
Market fluctuation is cyclical, whether it is rising or falling, it can't be static. Every tide has its ebb and flow. In the current market downturn, the most important thing is to remain rational and not lose confidence in raising pigs because of temporary market fluctuations.