The current oil price is enough for the production costs of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but not enough to balance the fiscal revenue and expenditure. For example, Saudi Arabia is about a dozen dollars, and Russia is 20 to 40 dollars. Now that the oil price has been sold, there is no loss in economic accounting.

However, the economic structure of these two countries is too simple, and the crude oil industry has also assumed the responsibility of contributing profits and taxes to the country. Without the profits and taxes related to crude oil, the fiscal revenue can't make ends meet and it will collapse. Saudi Arabia has thousands of princes to feed, and Putin's actions in Syria also need a lot of money. It is said that Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance needs about $70 in oil prices, and Russia's fiscal balance needs about $40 to $50.

The cost of shale oil in the United States is about forty or fifty dollars. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and Russia can temporarily stop the production of American shale oil by price war, but once these two countries can't stand it and the price rises, American shale oil can resume production. The most crucial point is that behind the increase in shale oil and shale gas production in the United States is technological progress, which will lead to the continuous reduction of costs, and production can be resumed after the cost is reduced. In fact, Saudi Arabia engaged in a price war at 15 and 16, and crude oil also fell to more than 20 dollars, but it did not kill American shale oil. In recent years, American technology has been improving and the cost is decreasing. American shale oil is even harder to kill.

Some people may wonder, will American shale oil producers go bankrupt after a period of losses? How can there be a future after bankruptcy? This is a commercial enterprise that does not understand American imperialism and does not understand the capital market of American imperialism. When the enterprise goes bankrupt, the original shareholders' rights and interests are cleared, and new shareholders enter the market to provide funds, the enterprise can continue to produce. And as long as it is profitable, the developed capital market of American imperialism can get money to continue production in minutes.

In view of the continuous improvement of American technology and the continuous reduction of costs, as well as the developed capital market in the United States, it is very difficult to permanently kill American shale oil. The long-term prospects of oil-producing countries in the Middle East are very bleak.

This crude oil war is aimed at American shale oil, which costs more than 40 dollars. If crude oil is so low for a long time, it will definitely be fatal to American shale oil. At present, the global epidemic is increasingly influential, the unemployment rate in the United States has reached more than 30%, and the American stock market has plummeted, which may fall below 15000, triggering a manager crisis and is likely to be squeezed out of the market!

This low oil price can temporarily suppress shale oil mining in the United States, making these enterprises difficult or even bankrupt. However, if you put this in the total economic output of the whole country in the United States, the loss of the United States is not too great. On the contrary, Russia's economic income mainly depends on energy and oil exports, so Russia cannot afford it from the strategic layout of the national economy. So in the end, Russia may give in or take other countermeasures to solve this crisis.

The United States does not fully expect shale oil. After the oil price is ideal, it will still revive exports.

It's impossible.

There are futures that can be hedged, and there will be no problem.

It's possible!

Basically, it will not squeeze out of the market. At most, the oil price has been depressed for a long time, and the market shrinkage is certain. It's just a normal phenomenon, there's nothing to make a fuss about.

Backward production will be eliminated and loss-making business will not last long.

The current international oil price will definitely push American shale oil out of the market, because the cost price of shale oil is 40 dollars per barrel.

However, it is unknown whether this oil price can be sustained in the next step and whether the United States will intervene. There is a great possibility that the United States will shoot, and local wars may be on the verge.