First, Russia's comprehensive strength is not enough to support the currency status of the ruble. Why can the dollar be recognized now? Is it really because everyone likes America? Because everyone is too young. In fact, the most fundamental reason why the dollar can be recognized is that the United States ranks first as a whole. At present, the United States ranks first in the world in economy, technology and culture, which can guarantee the stability of the US dollar. After holding the dollar, you don't have to worry that the bankruptcy of the United States will cause the dollar to become a pile of waste paper. Compared with the United States, the strength of other countries in the world is not as strong as that of the United States, especially some small countries, which may face various uncertainties at any time and their currencies may fluctuate greatly, so there is no country that has not been recognized by everyone. Although Russia's comprehensive national strength is relatively strong at present, the reason why Russia is strong is more reflected in its strength. In fact, Russia's economic strength is not so strong, even before the global GDP 10. According to Russia's current comprehensive national strength, it is not enough to support the ruble to become a common currency.

Second, Russia's trade share is too small. The most direct reason why a country's currency can become a global currency is that its settlement share in global trade is relatively large. For example, at present, the settlement share of the US dollar in global trade has reached at least 40%. One of the important reasons why the United States can do this is that the United States is the second largest country in the world trade volume. At present, the United States is the largest importer and the second largest exporter of trade in the world. Many countries are doing business with America. At this time, it is necessary to use US dollars for settlement, and the demand for US dollars is relatively large. At present, Russia's share in global trade is relatively small. For example, in 202 1, the global trade volume was 44.8 trillion US dollars, of which the Russian trade volume was only 789.4 billion US dollars, accounting for only 1.76% of the global trade volume. Compared with the share of the United States of America of 65,438+00.27%, there is still a big gap. It is precisely because Russia's trade share accounts for a relatively small proportion of the world, so everyone's demand for rubles is naturally less.

Third, the Russian ruble cannot obtain the pricing power of commodities. In order to maintain the status of the US dollar as an international currency, the United States reached an agreement with some major oil exporting countries in the Middle East in the name of military protection, requiring that these crude oils must be settled in US dollars when exporting oil. In addition, the United States has also guided the establishment of some crude oil futures exchanges, all of which are denominated in US dollars. At present, many oil transactions around the world refer to the prices of these futures exchanges.

After this series, the settlement share of the US dollar in global commodities is very high. At present, most commodities in the world are settled in US dollars, and commodities are often one of the most important import and export sources of a country, so most countries can only settle in US dollars in the end, so their dependence on US dollars is naturally higher. Compared with the pricing position of the US dollar, although Russia is one of the most important energy exporters in the world at present, its pricing ability in global energy trade is actually relatively poor, and they have to honestly refer to the prices of Brent and other crude oil markets for trading. Although some Russian oil and gas exports are currently settled in rubles, it is unrealistic for Russia to settle in rubles in the entire international energy market.

Fourth, the dollar's status as a world currency is deeply rooted and difficult to shake in the short term. The reason why the US dollar became a global currency status was not achieved overnight, but after decades of efforts. After World War II, the United States established the relationship between the dollar and gold through the Brinton Woods system. At that time, $35 could be exchanged unconditionally for an ounce of gold. It is through this relationship that the dollar has been greatly recognized in the world and gradually established its global currency status. Although the United States later announced that the dollar was decoupled from gold, and then the dollar continued to depreciate, because of the previous foundation, the global dependence on the dollar has been difficult to change, so the status of the dollar in the global currency is still high. After combining various factors, although everyone hates the hegemonic position of the dollar, it will not change the pattern of the dollar as a global currency in the short term. The only thing we can do is to diversify our currencies and reduce our dependence on the US dollar. The same is true of Russia. Russia can use their energy status to increase the settlement ratio of ruble in Russia's foreign trade structure, but it is unrealistic to make ruble the world's main settlement currency in the short term.