The person in charge of the central bank said that raising interest rates is an important decision made by us to further consolidate the achievements of macro-control and maintain the good momentum of sustained, rapid, coordinated and healthy development of the national economy. Specifically, first, continue to consolidate the achievements made in the previous macro-control. Since the end of the SARS epidemic in June 2003, China's economy has been growing rapidly. At the same time, investment in fixed assets has risen sharply, and investment in a few industries has grown too fast, endangering sustained and healthy economic development. In order to slow down the growth of investment in fixed assets, the central bank has successively used monetary tools such as raising the deposit reserve ratio and opening up market business, and achieved certain results. Subsequently, the central bank issued an administrative order to forcibly intervene in the credit support of financial institutions for industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement, and further control the growth of fixed assets investment. Preliminary results have been achieved in macro-control. With the passage of time, the effectiveness of administrative instructions is gradually weakening, so it is necessary to use the monetary control tool-raising interest rates to further consolidate the achievements made in the previous macro-control.

The second is to prevent inflation and stabilize market prices. Since the beginning of the year, China's consumer price index (CPI) has been at a high level, hovering around the warning line of 5%. According to the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from June to September, CPI rose by 4. 1% year-on-year, of which September rose by 5.2% year-on-year, which was lower than last month. The increase in food and food prices is the main force driving the increase in CPI. At present, there is a bumper harvest of autumn grain in China, and the rising trend of CPI dominated by food prices is expected to ease after the autumn harvest. However, the new round of international oil price rise and the shortage of energy supply such as electricity and coal have been transmitted to the price of consumer goods through multiple transmission mechanisms, and CPI may remain high, so it is necessary to raise interest rates to prevent inflation.

The third is to enhance residents' confidence in saving and ease the liquidity risk of the banking industry. Since June 5438+February 2003, China's savings deposit interest rate has been negative for nine consecutive months, especially in the last three months, because CPI has been at a high level of more than 5%, the negative deposit interest rate is even higher. Affected by this, since the first half of the year, the growth rate of residents' savings deposits has gradually slowed down, or even experienced negative growth. The money in the hands of residents began to flow to real estate and other markets in large quantities. At the same time, the diversion of savings and deposits reduces the credit funds available to the banking industry, the contradiction of "short-term deposits and long-term loans" is more prominent, and the liquidity risk is increased. The central bank hopes to guide residents to increase long-term savings deposits through the guiding role of this interest rate hike, further enhance the stability of savings deposits and ease the liquidity risk pressure of the banking industry.

Have a profound impact on China's financial industry.

The first is the impact on the banking industry. A major feature of this interest rate adjustment is that after the floating space of loan interest rate is completely liberalized, the deposit interest rate is allowed to float for the first time, which is an important moment for the banking industry and a brand-new starting point. ① The fluctuation of deposit interest rate will affect the development, setting and adjustment of bank deposit business varieties. Deposit business is the core business of banks, and its importance to banks is self-evident. At present, most of the capital sources of commercial banks in China are deposits, including savings deposits and corporate deposits. After allowing the deposit interest rate to fall, the bank will further subdivide the customer groups according to the index of capital organization cost, customer capital amount and capital contribution rate, and implement different deposit interest rates. Customers with high deposit amount and strong stability will likely get higher deposit interest rate returns. (2) After the floating space of loan interest rate is completely liberalized, it will be beneficial for banks to manage and use funds according to the laws of market economy, and link the level of loan interest rate with risks, so as to obtain relatively high returns while taking high risks and balance risks and returns. It is conducive to the bank's loan support for small and medium-sized enterprises, increasing the confidence of banks in lending to small and medium-sized enterprises, alleviating the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises and accelerating their development. ③ It will test the bank's fund management and operation ability. In the future, the competition in the banking industry will be "high deposit interest rate and low loan interest rate", and the deposit-loan spread space will be further narrowed. Banks with weak financial strength, poor capital operation ability and low service level will be eliminated. As far as residents' savings are concerned, the transfer should be carefully calculated, because we are likely to face a new interest rate hike cycle, and it is unwise to turn all savings into medium-and long-term deposits now.

The second is the impact on the stock market and national debt. The increase of bank deposit interest rate will divert funds into the stock market and affect the stock market index. This interest rate hike will have a certain impact on the stock market index in the short term, but it will not affect the long-term trend of the stock market. On the one hand, investors have strong psychological expectations for the central bank to raise interest rates, and the stock market will return to normal after digesting the negative impact of raising interest rates in a short time. On the other hand, in order to implement the spirit of "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Reform, Opening-up and Stable Development of the Capital Market" promulgated in February this year, the People's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have successively issued a series of policies, such as allowing commercial banks to start fund business and invest in fund companies; Allow insurance funds and social security funds to enter the market; Allowing securities companies to issue short-term financing bonds, as well as the recently introduced management measures for stock and bond pledge, will ensure the long-term development trend of the stock market. However, the central bank's interest rate hike will lead to the differentiation of the stock market. Real estate, steel and other stock sectors that are highly dependent on bank funds will be greatly impacted, which will affect corporate performance to a certain extent and reduce investor confidence. There are some positive factors in the banking sector. With the improvement of bank performance, investors' confidence will be enhanced. Power, energy and other stock sectors are the beneficiaries of macro-control. The inclination of bank credit funds will accelerate the development of enterprises, further enhance their performance and enhance investors' confidence. After raising interest rates, the interest rate of national debt will increase, and it will continue to maintain its advantage over the savings rate, so investing in national debt is a better choice. There is no need to withdraw the unexpired national debt in advance. Because you have to pay a handling fee of 1‰.

The third is the impact on the insurance industry. The yield of insurance products is largely set with reference to the bank deposit interest rate. The interest rate has a great influence on insurance products, especially the insurance products with fixed income, especially the dividend insurance policy and non-dividend insurance policy with a predetermined interest rate below 2.5%.

The fourth is the impact on the RMB exchange rate. This interest rate adjustment will generally not have a great impact on the RMB exchange rate. Since the merger of RMB exchange rate from 65438 to 0994, China has implemented a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, and stabilizing RMB exchange rate is a basic goal of macro-control. The central bank's interest rate hike has eased the pressure of RMB appreciation to a certain extent, further widened the gap between RMB interest rate and US dollar interest rate, and will attract a large amount of "hot money" inflows. Therefore, in the long run, it will generally not have a great impact on the RMB exchange rate.

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