US crude oil production rebounded last week, making up for all the losses in the previous two weeks. According to EIA data, the decline in production we have seen is due to regular maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico. At present, the output has recovered to 1265438+ 10,000 barrels per day, the highest level since April 2020.
Agency analysis EIA report: US crude oil exports set a new record. When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine reached a deadlock, Europe rushed to replace Russia's oil supply. According to data released by us energy information administration on Wednesday, US oil exports increased by 265,438+0% to 4.55 million barrels per day in the week ending July 22nd. The total shipments of crude oil and refined oil also rose to the highest level in history. As the spread between the US and global oil benchmark prices continues to widen, these strong capital flows may continue in the coming weeks, thus stimulating exports. To some extent, this is because the emergency release of strategic crude oil reserves in the United States has increased supply, while the rest of the world is still trying to cope with the shortage.
Robert Jorge, executive director of Mizuho Energy Futures, said: "Arbitrage activities have increased, so in fact, you may see that our inventory decline challenges 5 million barrels in the next report."
Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management Company, said: "The Fed's decision to raise interest rates is not a catalyst for the crude oil market, but it does dispel some concerns that interest rate hikes may further intensify."
Last week, crude oil inventories plummeted, probably because the US crude oil price was much lower than the international index Brent crude oil, which led to a surge in exports to a record high. The sharp drop in crude oil inventories shows that the global demand for American crude oil is rising in the context of tight supply. In terms of gasoline inventory, the inventory was higher than expected due to the weakening demand.
On the whole, we think this week's EIA report-Lido.
Looking forward to the market outlook, because the price of American crude oil is cheaper than Brent crude oil, the current price difference between oil distribution and American crude oil has expanded to more than $9, the biggest gap since April 2020. It is expected that the US crude oil export momentum will continue to be strong in the coming weeks.
Night trading strategy of crude oil;
Go long near 98.50, stop loss: 97.90, target 10 1.00 mark.
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All-round guidance time: 9: 00 am to 00: 00 am the next day.
Related Q&A: How to buy US crude oil futures? In 2006, China Securities Regulatory Commission approved six futures companies to set up branches in Hongkong. At present, all six futures companies can buy and sell crude oil futures, provided that they open accounts in Hong Kong. However, it seems that several companies can open accounts without going to Hong Kong. I know the following: Guangfa Greenland South China Yong 'an, and I can't remember the other two. Now the crude oil margin is very high, with more than one hand1w. The contract multiplier is 1000. At present, spot crude oil can be made in China, which is also a very popular investment variety at present. By the way, let's take a look at the main differences between crude oil futures and spot crude oil investment for your reference: 1? Crude oil futures must be delivered at that time, and the time for general crude oil futures contracts is 1 year; Spot crude oil is not compulsory and can be held indefinitely. 2. Crude oil futures have risen and fallen, and the latest rise and fall of crude oil futures is 7%; There is no limit to the fluctuation of spot crude oil. 3. The margin ratio is different. Shanghai Futures Exchange stipulates that the minimum trading margin for crude oil futures is 7%, which is about 1.4 times leverage. At present, domestic spot crude oil has a leverage of up to 50 times, and 2% margin can be traded. 4. Crude oil futures is a matching trading system, that is, someone can sell you before you can buy it, and someone can buy it before you can sell it; Spot crude oil is a market maker's trading system, which can be bought and sold immediately. 5. The trading time of crude oil futures is the same as that of stocks, as long as it can be traded at 9: 00-1:30 in the morning and 13:30- 15:00 in the afternoon (it can't be traded on Saturday and Sunday); Spot crude oil can be traded for 22 hours except for the settlement time of 4:00-6:00 am (no trading on Saturday and Sunday). Related questions and answers: How to buy crude oil futures? As a so-called financial person who has been engaged in futures for more than ten years, I can simply answer your question.
First of all, talk about several major crude oil futures trading places. First of all, we all know Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures, which refer to Brent crude oil futures contract of London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and West Texas light intermediate base crude oil of the United States respectively. WTI crude oil futures are common crude oil varieties in North America, and the pricing benchmark is WTI crude oil contracts listed in NYMEX.
There are also the high-sulfur crude oil futures contract of Dubai Commodity Exchange and the Dubai acid crude oil futures contract of Singapore Exchange (SGX).
Secondly, talk about domestic crude oil futures. 2065438+On March 26th, 2008, crude oil futures were officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center of Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Third, oil futures are futures with forward oil prices as the subject matter, which is a trading variety in futures trading; Standardized contracts based on crude oil shall be formulated by futures exchanges.
Fourthly, the influencing factors of crude oil futures price.
The price of international crude oil market is determined by the price of spot crude oil market and futures market. Therefore, the factors affecting the spot price of crude oil, that is, the contradiction between supply and demand in the crude oil market, will also affect the futures price of crude oil. However, the crude oil futures price will deviate from the spot price for a short time, so there are some special factors that will affect the crude oil futures price, such as financial factors such as speculation of investment funds.
As a commodity, the price of crude oil, like other commodities, is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, but crude oil is not an ordinary commodity, it is an important strategic material and a special commodity. There are many factors that affect the international crude oil price, and they are also influenced by international politics, economy, diplomacy and military affairs to a great extent.
Fifth, we know that it was American crude oil that plunged 300% and turned negative last night. There is no storage space because it is delivered in the early morning.
Sixth, what is the main way for us to trade crude oil futures now? Banks and securities fund companies are products linked to crude oil futures and have no leverage, so they do not belong to the way of crude oil futures.
At present, there are no branches of other exchanges and formal foreign exchange agencies in China. The opening of foreign crude oil futures can only be opened abroad and is not protected by domestic laws.
Therefore, domestic regular crude oil futures are all crude oil futures of Shanghai Energy Center. Futures account requirements for domestic crude oil, please refer to the subheading and text.
However, remind investors that risks are directly proportional to returns. Crude oil belongs to a large number of strategic varieties, and there is a great linkage at home and abroad. Carefully bargain-hunting Investment is risky, so be careful when entering the market!