(Oil and Gas Resources Strategic Research Center of Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing, 100035)

Since oil became the largest energy source in 1950s, its strategic position has been enduring, and it has become more and more important in the economic development of all countries in the world. From 1993 to 2003, the world oil consumption increased from 757.6 million tons to 1049. 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 2910.5 million tons; However, since China became a net oil importer again from 1993, oil consumption has risen sharply, from 1993 to 275.2 million tons in 2003, an increase of134.7 million tons (accounting for 46.2% of the total global increase)

At the same time, due to the limited production of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the US-Iraq war, the international crude oil supply was once tight, and the speculation of some western institutions led to the soaring international crude oil prices. In 2003, it broke through the $30, $40, $50 and $55 mark continuously. Faced with such a high oil price and such a high increase in oil demand (especially the large increase in imports and the increasing dependence on foreign countries), people can't help but ask, what is the current energy utilization structure in China? How big is the impact of such high oil prices on China? If a new oil crisis breaks out, will it cause a similar or even greater blow to China than the oil crisis in 1970s? With such doubts, the author compares and analyzes the energy utilization structure and the changes of oil, natural gas and coal consumption in the past 10 year between western developed countries and some developing countries according to the statistical data of BP, draws some conclusions, and puts forward some suggestions for China's energy policy orientation and medium-and long-term development planning.

First, the energy utilization structure of some countries during the oil crisis.

After the end of World War II, both the victorious countries and the defeated countries clearly realized the important role of oil in the national economic development. Western countries have accelerated the exploration and development of oil in unison. After more than 20 years of development and utilization, while the national economy is developing, it has gradually formed an excessive dependence on oil resources, resulting in a "one-headed sinking" phenomenon in the energy utilization structure.

As shown in table 1, during the first oil crisis of 197 1 ~ 1972, oil accounted for a large proportion in the primary energy consumption of developed countries such as the United States, France, Germany, Britain and Japan. The largest proportion is Japan (75.6%), followed by France (66.6%), South Korea (6 1.9%), Britain (5 1.2%), Germany (47.4%), and the smallest proportion is the United States (44.2%). The main energy sources in China and India are coal (79.3% in China and 57.4% in India), and the proportion of oil is relatively small (China 16.2%, India 3 1.3%). In the second oil crisis (1979 ~ 1980) which broke out shortly thereafter, the proportion of oil in the primary energy consumption of the above six countries decreased, but they remained the main energy sources, namely Japan (66.4%), South Korea (62.4%), France (57.5%) and the United States (57.5%). In China, the proportion of oil increased to 20.6% (30.7% in India), and the proportion of coal decreased to 73.6% (55.5% in India). It can be seen that the economic development of developed countries is highly dependent on oil, which is also the main reason for the sharp decline of developed countries' economy during the oil crisis. During this period, most developing countries (such as China and India) were not very dependent on oil, so they were not greatly affected. What's more, at that time, China was in the early stage of reform and opening up, and everything had to be done, which was basically unaffected.

Table 1 Primary energy consumption structure of some countries during the oil crisis (%)

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Source: The data in the table are calculated according to the World Energy Annual Report 2004 of BP Company.

Two. Changes of energy utilization structure in some countries in recent 10 years

After experiencing the painful lessons of over-reliance on oil in two oil crises, developed countries generally began to adjust the structure of primary energy utilization (mainly using new technologies to develop natural gas resources, nuclear energy, hydropower and so on). ) to promote the coordinated development of the national economy, while developing countries have stepped up their efforts to develop oil resources. For more than 20 years, although oil still occupies a major position in the primary energy consumption of various countries, its proportion has declined compared with that of 19 in the 1980s (see table 2). Compared with 1980, in 2003, for example, the proportion of oil consumption in the United States decreased by 4 percentage points (from 1993 to 2003, it basically remained at around 39%), while natural gas and nuclear energy increased by 4 percentage points; France has changed a lot. The proportion of oil decreased by 2 1 percentage point (from 1.993 to about 37% in 2003), the proportion of nuclear energy increased by 2 1 percentage point (2 percentage points more than oil, becoming the first energy source), and the proportion of coal decreased by1percentage point. The proportion of oil and coal in Germany decreased by 4 and 13 percentage points respectively, while the main increases were natural gas (9 percentage points) and nuclear energy (8 percentage points); Britain has greatly reduced its dependence on oil (down by 6 percentage points) and coal (down by 18 percentage points), while increasing the development and utilization of natural gas (up by 18 percentage points) and nuclear energy by 5 percentage points; Although the proportion of Japanese oil has decreased by 17 percentage points, it still accounts for about 50%. Natural gas (up by 7 percentage points), coal (up by 6 percentage points) and nuclear energy (up by 5 percentage points) account for the other half of Japan's primary energy. The proportion of oil in South Korea is basically the same as that in Japan, but the difference is that the proportion of coal utilization in South Korea has decreased by 10 percentage point, while the proportion of nuclear energy utilization has increased by 10 percentage point. The structure of primary energy utilization in China and India has not changed much, and the decline in dependence on coal utilization is basically made up by oil. The main energy source is still coal (67.9% in China and 53.6% in India). Compared with 1980 (23.4% in China and 32.8% in India), the proportion of oil has not changed much, and the proportion of nuclear energy, natural gas and hydropower is still small.

Table 2 Primary energy consumption structure of some countries in recent 10 years (%)

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Source: The data in the table are calculated according to the World Energy Annual Report 2004 of BP Company.

Three. Consumption of oil, natural gas and coal in recent 10 years

At present, although the dependence of some developed countries on oil has declined, and the phenomenon of "one head sinking" in primary energy utilization structure has eased, oil is still the largest energy source. After the status of coal declined, it was replaced by natural gas resources. The following is a comparison of oil, natural gas and coal consumption in some countries and regions from1993 to 2003.

1. Fuel consumption

As shown in Table 3, the oil consumption of China, India, South Korea, the Middle East and the United States has continued to grow, with the largest increase of 96% in China (reaching 275 million tons, ranking second in the world, accounting for 7.6% of the total global consumption), 865,438+0% in India (654,38+0.65,438+0.3 million tons). American oil consumption increased by 16%, reaching 9140,000 tons (accounting for 25 1% of the global total consumption), and it is still the largest oil consumer in the world. Russia has the largest decline (34%), while France, Germany, Britain and Japan all have different degrees of decline, but the magnitude is not large. Compared with the period of oil crisis, the dependence of developed countries on oil has obviously decreased, while that of developing countries (especially China and Indian) has increased.

Table 3 Oil consumption units of some countries and regions in the past 10 years: million tons.

Source: BP World Energy Annual Report 2004.

2. Natural gas consumption

As shown in Table 4, in terms of growth ratio alone, China has the fastest growth rate (growth 102%), India (89%), the Middle East (87%), the United States has the smallest growth rate (5%), and the growth rates of other countries are not very prominent. However, as far as total consumption is concerned, it is just the opposite. The United States (accounting for 24.3% of the total global consumption), Russia (accounting for 15.7%) and the Middle East are big consumers, and China's natural gas consumption is only a little more than that of South Korea and India.

Table 4 Natural gas consumption of some countries and regions in the past 10 years Unit: 10 billion cubic meters.

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Source: BP World Energy Annual Report 2004.

3. Coal consumption

As shown in Table 5, from 1993 to 2003, the consumption of coal resources in France, Germany, Russia and Britain showed a downward trend (the largest decline was in Britain, with 27%; Germany has the smallest decline (1 1%), and the coal consumption of South Korea, India, Japan, China and the United States is on the rise (the largest increase in South Korea is as high as 97%, almost doubling; The United States has the smallest increase, at15%; China's growth rate is 40%). China's total consumption and growth rank first, among which the total consumption in 2003 was 799.7 million tons of oil equivalent (573.9 million tons of oil equivalent in the United States), an increase of 229.4 million tons of oil equivalent (74 million tons of oil equivalent in the United States) compared with 10 years ago. It can be seen that coal is still one of the main energy sources used in China.

Table 5 Coal consumption of some countries and regions in recent years 10 Unit: million tons of oil equivalent

Source: BP World Energy Annual Report 2004.

Four. Basic conclusions and related suggestions

By analyzing the two oil crises and the changes of primary energy consumption structure and consumption in major countries and regions in the world in recent 10 years, we can draw the following basic conclusions: oil is still the largest energy source in the world, and its strategic value will not decline in the short term; Although coal no longer occupies an important position in developed countries, it still occupies a considerable proportion in developing countries; The proportion of oil in developed countries has declined, and it is basically supplemented by natural gas, while the exploitation of natural gas in developing countries is still in its infancy; Nuclear energy is another new type of energy, but due to the difficulty in technology development, only France has a high utilization level (it has become the largest energy source in China since 200 1). Although the utilization level of other countries has improved, the increase is not large. It can be predicted that natural gas and nuclear energy will replace oil and coal in the future. Because the proportion of oil in the primary energy structure of countries is much lower than that of the previous two oil crises, even if a new oil crisis breaks out, the impact on most countries is far less harmful than the previous two oil crises.

Based on the above analysis, combined with the large demand for energy in building a well-off society in an all-round way in China, the following suggestions are put forward.

1. Strengthen the development and utilization of natural gas and nuclear energy, reduce dependence on coal, and adjust the energy utilization structure.

On the one hand, this is the need of environmental protection, on the other hand, it is the need to optimize the energy utilization structure. Judging from the current development trend, China's oil consumption will increase in the next decade or two, but the overall goal should be: by 2020, the proportion of oil in the primary energy utilization structure will not exceed 30%, the proportion of coal will be reduced to about 40%, the proportion of nuclear energy will be about 10%, and the proportion of natural gas will be about 15%, so as to further optimize the energy structure and reduce risks.

2. The short-term goal of oil development and utilization should be to establish a safe supply system to ensure oil safety.

The main factors affecting China's oil security are domestic and foreign oil resources, supply and demand situation and oil security countermeasures. On the basis of accurately grasping the international oil market and geopolitical characteristics of oil, China should establish a correct concept of oil security and take comprehensive measures to ensure oil security. First, establish diversified overseas oil supply channels (mainly to strengthen the Far East and open up African markets on the basis of stabilizing the Middle East); Second, speed up the exploration and development of domestic oil and gas resources, speed up the development of petroleum science and technology, strive for new breakthroughs in sea areas and southern carbonate areas, and develop alternative and new energy sources; Third, actively participate in oil futures and spot trading in the international market, and get more oil products from the market and competition; The fourth is to strengthen the construction of strategic oil reserves and early warning systems.

3. Improve the energy management system and realize unified energy management.

At present, China's energy management is not only lacking in management (mainly manifested in the absence of a unified energy management department), but also overlapping (the management functions of oil and natural gas are managed by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Land and Resources, respectively, and the three major oil companies also have some government functions), which will inevitably lead to conflicts of interest among departments and the phenomenon of being both referees and athletes in management and policy. We should concentrate the functions scattered in various government departments, recover the administrative functions reserved by enterprises, establish a big energy concept, set up a comprehensive energy management department from the perspective of comprehensive utilization of various national energy sources, and build a service-oriented government. The main functions should be: strengthening the unified macro-control of coal, electricity, oil, natural gas and other energy minerals, formulating comprehensive development strategies, implementing comprehensive management, formulating relevant laws and regulations, breaking monopoly, building a price formation mechanism under market economy conditions, ensuring fair and orderly market competition, making market forecasts and providing information services.

4. Strengthen domestic exploration and development, and strive to reduce external dependence.

In 2003, China imported 91120,000 tons of crude oil (it will exceed1000,000 tons this year), accounting for 33 1% of the total domestic oil consumption. With the development of national economy, the dependence on imports will further increase, and the risks will also increase. Therefore, we must formulate a new energy development strategy in accordance with the general principle of "basing ourselves on domestic and facing the world, encouraging conservation and substitution, and promoting the rational development of energy structure". Recently, the "new round of national oil and gas resources evaluation" and "national oil and gas resources strategic selection survey and evaluation" led by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Development and Reform Commission are very beneficial to finding the breakthrough of China's new land and sea areas, and should continue to be strengthened. And take this as an opportunity to form a dynamic evaluation system and an investigation and evaluation database, and stick to it for a long time. Efforts to find large oil fields, establish new energy supply bases, reduce dependence on imports and reduce the risk of national economic development not only promote the harmonious development between regions, but also ensure the needs of building a well-off society in an all-round way.

Brief introduction of the author

Ding Feng, deputy director of the Office of Oil and Gas Resources Strategic Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, assistant researcher, studying for a doctorate.