Look at a picture: blue is Saudi Arabia, gray is the United States, and black is Russia! In fact, the United States has become the largest oil producer in the world on the basis of shale oil technology.
Russia also said before: even if the oil price drops by 40%, it is acceptable! In fact, this sentence should be understood like this:
If other factors are not considered, OPEC+will blindly cut production and protect prices, and the future crude oil market will allow the United States to seize the share, that is, "drinking poison to quench thirst"!
(1) In this case, Russia chooses: the epidemic has really affected international crude oil, and I, Russia, are also willing to continue the previous production reduction agreement, if the new agreement is within a reasonable range, it is acceptable! But your organization of petroleum exporting countries has to increase production and reduce production, but there is always a quota for reducing production!
At this stage, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil-producing countries are already implementing an agreement to reduce the daily output from this year's/kloc-0 by 265,438+million barrels, including Saudi Arabia's additional voluntary production reduction. Most market observers generally believe that the existing production reduction agreement adopted in February 20 19 should be postponed (for example, until the end of 2020). So far, OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers including Russia have reached a consensus before the meeting!
(2) Russia previously revealed that it supports the Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies to consider reducing crude oil production by another 6,543.8+million barrels per day, and believes that the proposal of reducing production by as much as 6,543.8+million barrels per day will be enough to balance the oil market and push the oil price up to $60/barrel.
(3) In fact, the price war initiated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to depress the international oil price is a great challenge to the United States with developed shale oil technology!
We can look at the data: in July 2008, the prices of Brent crude oil and American WTI crude oil soared to 147 USD/barrel, 20 1 1 to 20 14, and the price of American cloth remained at 100 USD/barrel for a long time. From 2065438 to September 2004, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries launched a crude oil price war, and international oil prices began to fall off a cliff. In June of 20 16, the price once fell to 27. 1 USD/barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including the current Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is very determined to crush American shale oil.
However, after the 20 15 struggle, all OPEC members found that it did not seem to have much influence on the United States.
(4) Is this really the case? Don't! The high cost of shale oil leads to the lack of confidence of investment groups!
The main reasons for the increase in cost and insufficient profit are:
Water charges are rising. According to media reports, at present, the technology used in shale oil and shale gas mining in the United States is horizontal well multi-stage fracturing technology, which requires a lot of water. According to the data analysis of Permian producers, the average fracturing operation now consumes 654.38+03 million gallons (49 million liters) of water, and the water consumption has increased by 40% in two years. In 20 19, the water fee in Permian basin has soared by 17%, reaching1400 million dollars, which is more than three times the cost of hydraulic fracturing sand used by North American producers in 20 18. In addition, the cost of water intake and wastewater treatment is between 50 cents and 4 dollars per barrel, which will be an unbearable high cost for American shale oil producers when the oil price has previously fallen below 40 dollars per barrel.
Water charges have risen, while international oil prices have fallen. Naturally, the US Congress has slowed down shale oil production!
There is another factor that cannot be ignored. You should also see in the street that with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for traditional oil and gas energy is also declining. Although this new energy vehicle is still immature, its impact on traditional energy drive will increase step by step! It is precisely for the above reasons that Russia can directly reject Saudi Arabia and refuse dialogue with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cannot refuse Russia at all. As the case may be, either postpone or continue to hold an emergency meeting!
The OPEC+Vienna meeting failed to reach an agreement to continue to reduce production and protect prices; Russia indicated that it would not cut production from April 1. This important news led to a sharp drop in oil prices 10%, and the market wailed.
Saudi Arabia proposed to increase the quota of production reduction beyond the original quota, which was opposed by Russia (Russia is not a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but+); Russia's proposal to maintain the current production reduction plan until the end of the year was not supported. Therefore, the meeting broke up in discord.
It once occurred to me that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries might disintegrate. After the shale oil revolution, the United States changed from the world's largest oil importer to a net exporter, completely reversing the relationship between supply and demand in the oil market, and the whole industry faced the reality of oversupply. Whoever advocates controlling carbon emissions and developing new energy sources is estimated to have no more market. American shale oil revolution is the initiator of oil surplus.
How can the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries unite under the situation of reduced production capacity? The oil economy is already a part of their social structure, and any country's reduction in production will cause social structure disorder. We can continue to observe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and maybe we can really see them make a living by themselves.
Russia is relatively better than the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, because it has the advantages of large contracts for oil pipelines and natural gas pipelines. Putin's popularity at home is justified. Oil prices will continue to fall and there is no support for the time being. After all, shale oil costs are high, and low oil prices will be even more sad.
Let's start with the conclusion: the oil price plummeted this time because the production reduction agreement was not reached and the market supply exceeded demand. As a substitute for crude oil, American shale oil will also be affected when the price of crude oil falls.
The United States has a large shale oil production space and responds quickly to the crude oil market. At present, the United States ranks first in the world in crude oil production. In 20 18, American shale oil production reached 6.5 million barrels per day, accounting for 59% of the total American crude oil production. The explosive power of shale oil short-term supply depends on the number of storage wells. As of September, 20 19, there were 7,794 storage wells in 48 states in the United States, which was a historical high level. According to EIA forecast, the crude oil output in the United States will reach13.09 million barrels per day in 2020, an increase of about 800,000 barrels per day compared with 20 19, which is a marginal supply that cannot be underestimated. In addition, the development cycle of shale oil gas wells is generally only 3-6 months. According to the past, when the oil price is much lower than the cost of shale oil, the output of new wells drops rapidly, and the shale oil in the United States can achieve rapid production reduction; When the oil price is higher than the cost of shale oil, American shale oil can increase production rapidly by opening storage wells. The exploitation and production of shale oil and gas in the United States is highly flexible and can form a rapid response to the crude oil market.
It is precisely because of the amazing shale oil production in the United States that the phenomenon of oversupply in the market is more serious.
In fact, many people think that the sharp drop in oil prices is because the United States wants to attack Russia and Iran. This view is wrong. Oil prices plummeted, but the United States suffered the most.
Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States are all major oil producers. The United States is a net exporter of oil, but at the same time it is a big manufacturing country, and manufacturing will lead to the service industry in the United States. Therefore, the interest of the United States is that oil prices fluctuate within a reasonable range, 50-70 dollars. If the oil price is too high, it will push up the core inflation in the United States and bring stagflation risk, but if the oil price is too low, it will make the American oil industry suffer huge losses.
This is because the main oil shale oil in the United States injected liquidity through the extremely loose QE plan, which survived the financial crisis in the United States in 2008, and the success of the shale oil revolution in the United States helped the United States re-enter Zhang Zhilu's economic expansion in Zhang Zhilu.
This time, Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should have negotiated to reduce production. Because of the epidemic, the global economy is not good and the demand for oil is declining, which leads to the continuous decline of international oil prices. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hope to improve the relationship between supply and demand by reducing production, thus pushing up oil prices. This is also the consistent practice of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the past.
However, Russia does not agree to cut production. In fact, Russia's statement is not unreasonable. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries blindly raise oil prices by reducing production, but they can't actually change the demand for oil prices. However, the supply of international crude oil market is not only controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, but also the United States has sufficient crude oil reserves, and the shale oil industry in the United States is developed, which can continuously exploit oil.
This means that after the oil price rises, the United States benefits the most. Because despite the rise in oil prices, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have cut production and will not benefit significantly. However, the United States has not cut production and still provides sufficient supply, so the market share of international oil will be taken away by the United States. In this way, the pricing power of international oil prices will be completely in the hands of the United States.
Therefore, Russia does not agree to cut production, and the OPEC agreement on production reduction will go away. Then came Saudi Arabia, which greatly increased the oil export discount and announced that the output next month would far exceed 6,543,800,000 barrels per day, and may even reach a record high of 6,543,802,000 barrels per day. This move has brought about a sharp drop in international crude oil prices. On March 9th, the biggest intraday declines of WTI and Brent crude oil both exceeded 30%, and WTI crude oil fell to a minimum of $27.35.
The international oil price has plummeted, but the United States has been hit, because the United States has developed shale oil and is constantly grabbing the share of the global oil market. However, shale oil mining costs are high, and it takes more than 50 dollars to make money. Let's look at the cost of producing a barrel of oil in countries around the world.
According to the data of relevant institutions, the cost of producing a barrel of oil in major countries is: US$ 52.5 in Britain, US$ 48.8 in Brazil, US$ 36.2 in China, US$ 29.9 in Venezuela, US$ 23.5 in Russia 17.2, US$ 2.6 in Iran 10.7 in Iraq and US$ 9 in Saudi Arabia.
As can be seen from the data, when the international oil price falls to the level of $30, the more shale oil will be mined, and the American shale oil industry will suffer huge economic losses. If the US oil price does not fall, it will inevitably lose its market share and global oil pricing power.
So Trump really panicked. On the afternoon of March 9, according to foreign media reports, US President Trump quietly asked Saudi Arabia to stop the oil price war.
American shale oil has not been affected this time.
First of all, although the United States did not participate in the negotiations, it is a member of the oil supply market. Therefore, although it is conducted between Russia and Russia, the outcome of the negotiations will affect all oil suppliers and even all oil demanders.
Second, the main consideration for the collapse of Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is also the shale oil in the United States. Because Russia, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the United States are oil suppliers. The reduction in production only limited the production of Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. If only Russia and Ophik cut production at this time, then the biggest beneficiary after the results of the lightening negotiations is the United States. I think Russia can see this result. So they don't agree that it is reasonable to reduce production.
Third, the breakdown of negotiations between Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may also be intentional. Because the United States screwed up the Nord Stream 2 oil project between Russia and Europe before, Russia suffered huge losses. This time, because of the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and America, the United States is also very uncomfortable now, so Russia also took the opportunity to deliberately talk about the collapse of the oil production reduction plan at this time, making the United States even more uncomfortable. This is also the inevitable result of the political game. Let the United States feel good this time, then the United States can only make itself feel worse in the future.
Fourth, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, especially Saudi Arabia, has long had the idea of suppressing American shale oil. Because in the past few years, Saudi Arabia's crazy price cuts have hit American shale oil production, but it ended in failure. This time, Saudi Arabia took the initiative to cut prices, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone. It can not only force Russia to return to the negotiating table to continue production reduction negotiations, but also hit the shale oil production in the United States. So they will take the initiative to reduce the price.
Based on the above points, I personally feel that shale oil in the United States has not been affected by price cuts. It is the inevitable result of the struggle of all parties.
Recently, due to Saudi Arabia's push for further production cuts, Russia boycotted it. On March 6, Vienna held talks on OPEC's expansion of production reduction, which ended in failure. Affected by this, the global oil share price fell across the board. Now the international oil price has plummeted, which is actually an extremely important thing, representing a serious setback for the entire international oil price control system. It is actually irresponsible for Saudi Arabia and other countries to cut production now. Oil plays a very important role in production and life, not only providing power for cars, but also providing many materials. For example, the flannel of the mask we are using now is the product of petrochemical industry. Without oil, most of our masks can't be used now
At present, serious novel coronavirus is erupting in Iran and other countries, and the situation in Europe is also very serious. Therefore, Saudi Arabia's practice will increase the price of masks and medical protective clothing, and Russia will naturally disagree, because Iran is an ally of Russia to some extent, and European countries have extensive economic ties with Russia. Therefore, this practice of Saudi Arabia is a malicious act. Of course, Saudi Arabia has an interest relationship with the United States. Raising oil prices after production cuts is very beneficial to shale gas oil sales in the United States.
Now the United States has become an oil exporter, mainly producing a large amount of shale gas oil, but the cost of shale gas oil in the United States is very high and its competitiveness in the international market is not very strong. Therefore, if the oil price is raised, the ordinary oil and shale gas oil in the United States will be at the same price level, which is undoubtedly of great benefit to the United States. Russia refuses to reduce oil exports, and shale gas in the United States is naturally uncompetitive.
Of course, most oil exporting organizations are inextricably linked with the United States, and Russia is a bit out of harmony with this oil-prominent organization, but Russia is also a world energy exporter. In order to take care of their own interests and the interests of Europe and its allies, we should not compromise with countries such as Saudi Arabia.
The OPEC+meeting failed to reach a production reduction agreement, which led to the crude oil futures price plummeting by about 10%, mainly because Russia refused to cut production further.
Then why is American shale oil lying down? The reason is simple:
1. Today's energy market is dominated by crude oil and shale oil. Judging from the structural development of the current energy market, the share of shale oil is not large. In 20 18, the market share of OPEC crude oil was about 4 1%, Russian crude oil was about 13%, Saudi crude oil was about 13%, and American shale oil was about 15%. Crude oil is still the main energy source in the world. There is no reason why shale oil prices should not be affected due to the collapse of crude oil prices.
2. The economic structures of the oil-producing countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are mostly single and fragile, and the downward pressure on the global economy is great. At the same time, the impact of the epidemic crisis on short-term fundamentals is even worse. In order to boost oil prices and balance finance, OPEC oil producers have to take measures to limit production. However, Russia's economy is not very good, and crude oil economy is also the main source of its GDP and finance. Further production reduction will also have a greater impact on its economy and finance.
Because shale oil is an important supplement to the current crude oil market, OPEC's production reduction can't stop shale oil from filling the market and Syrian crude oil supply factors, and the interests of various economies conflict, resulting in losses. Why not?
3. The United States is rich in shale oil resources, and its technically recoverable reserves are about 58 billion barrels, ranking first in the world. But the mining cost is not low. The cost of shale oil exploitation in the United States includes:
Cost test data of six major shale oil producers in the United States;
These six American companies cover the Permian, Eagleford and Bakken, the three most important shale oil and gas producing areas, and the oil price balance point of shale oil and gas producers in 20 18 is about $50/barrel.
International crude oil fell sharply last Friday. The main contract of WTI crude oil closed down by $465,438 +0.55/ barrel, a decrease of nearly 10%, the lowest since August 20 16. The main contract oil distribution of Brent crude oil fell by nearly 9% to 45.50 USD/barrel, refreshing the low point since June 20 17. US crude oil prices closed at $465,438 +0.57, plunging 9.43%.
It is normal for American shale oil to lie down.