Compared with the recent food price fluctuation, the price of pigs has risen like that of chihuo.

Especially since the end of June, the price of pigs in many provinces in China has broken 8 and then 9. Recently, the price of pigs in several provinces has broken 10. This upward trend is really fierce.

On the one hand, the rise in pig prices makes farmers happy, but on the other hand, such a rapid rise has also made many farmers a little worried: can pig prices rise in July?

First, the pig price is "broken 10"

On June 30th, the national average price of ternary live pigs has reached 20.35438+0 yuan/kg, and the pig price has returned to "10 yuan era".

This is also the second significant increase after the increase in the price of live pigs at the end of April.

At the end of April, the pig price began to rise, and gradually separated from "5 yuan District", while in May, the pig price basically hovered in "7 yuan District". Until mid-June, the price of pigs broke 8-9, and now it has reached the 10 yuan mark again.

Affected by the surge in the spot market, the pig futures market is also rising in volume and price, which also reflects the market's bullish sentiment towards the subsequent pig market.

The soaring pig price is mainly affected by two factors:

First, the supply of live pigs is in a phased "off-file" period.

Since June last year, the production capacity of fertile sows began to enter the stage of decontamination, which reflected that the domestic pig market began to appear in May.

In particular, the production capacity of retail investors has been greatly reduced, and the scale of slaughter has also declined. In addition, after entering June, heavy rains occurred in many places, which affected the slaughter and transportation of pigs to a certain extent, making the slaughter less, thus causing the supply of pigs to be "broken" in stages.

Second, the reluctance to sell bars has become more intense.

Due to the rapid rise of pig prices and the continuous opening of purchasing and storage, the whole market is more optimistic about the subsequent trend of pig prices, so the mood of secondary fattening and reluctance to sell began to become stronger.

When the pig price fell excessively in the early stage, the farmers suffered serious losses. However, with the rapid rise of pig prices, the daily losses will be reduced or even turned into profits, which makes farmers have a strong mentality of holding prices.

This has also reduced the number of live pigs on the market in disguise, further leading to a reduction in phased supply.

On the other hand, the continuous start of central purchasing and storage has also given great confidence to the pig market, especially the continuous improvement of the follow-up auction rate, which has also greatly boosted market sentiment.

Second, how long can the price of pigs rise?

As the price of pigs soared, the market began to collect another question. According to this rising method, how long can the pig price go up?

One view is that the pig price will usher in an "inflection point" in the second half of this year, while the current pig price has "broken 10". With the arrival of the peak consumption season in the second half of this year, there is great hope that pig prices will continue to rise, so the subsequent increase in pig prices can still be expected.

However, another view is that consumption in the second half of the year may be less than expected, which may drag down the subsequent pig price trend due to factors such as secondary fattening, inhibition of big pigs and obvious slowdown in production capacity.

According to the new concept of agriculture, there are still conditions for the subsequent increase in pig prices, but after entering July, pork consumption is still in the off-season, and consumption is also affected by the increase in superimposed meat prices.

On the other hand, with the increase of pig price, the profit of slaughter enterprises is lower. If downstream consumption cannot undertake slaughtering enterprises, it is likely to turn to lower prices or purchase in small quantities. Therefore, although there is still room for increase in pig prices in July, the probability of increase is significantly reduced.

Third, be alert to "two problems"

Although from the perspective of supply and demand theory, the trend of pig price still has some room for shock, but there are still two problems to be vigilant:

First, the scale of China's pig breeding industry is not high, and retail investors and enterprises each account for a certain proportion, which makes the overall connection between supply and demand not very timely, and it is easy to be "rushed to the market and dispersed in a hubbub".

Second, the pig industry chain is long, including breeding, slaughtering, processing, transportation and other links, but often the pressure in the breeding link is the greatest, so it is more prone to capacity fluctuations.

Therefore, although the current pig price is rising, we should also see the problems faced by the whole aquaculture industry in China. Raising pigs is a long-term business, so we should avoid excessive pursuit of short-term profits and ups and downs.

For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.