The shortage of international crude oil market is the main reason to push the international oil price up again. With the arrival of summer, the global market is entering the traditional peak season of crude oil demand. According to the data of us energy information administration (EIA) on 25th, the capacity utilization rate of American refineries increased by 1.4% month on month, reaching 93.2%. However, crude oil inventories continue to decrease. The latest data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory is 420 million barrels, which is lower than the average of 60 million barrels in the past five years. It shows that the tight supply in the crude oil market has led to an increase in oil prices.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the shortage of fundamental supply and demand is expected to push the international oil price to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and with the arrival of the peak demand season, it may further aggravate the tight supply situation. First of all, the expansion of the far-month spread reflects the market's concern about the tight supply in the future. The monthly spread of crude oil futures mainly reflects the supply and demand situation in the spot market, while the international oil price spread rose from less than $0.5/barrel at the end of April to $3/barrel (as of May 26th), indicating that the market worries are intensifying. Market worries are mainly caused by supply. Take the United States as an example According to the data of Bloomberg, its crude oil output is 1 1.9 million barrels per day, which is only 90% of the highest output before the epidemic. However, the crude oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in April was only 28.7 million barrels per day, an increase of less than 600,000 barrels per day compared with the beginning of the year, and the output growth continued to be strictly controlled. On the demand side, with the recovery of the epidemic and the lifting of travel restrictions around the world, the demand for crude oil consumption is strong, but the supply restriction leads to the continuous shortage of crude oil market and the rapid decline of commercial inventory. Therefore, the situation that international oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall is expected to continue.
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