A number of listed companies stopped production or reduced production due to the snowstorm.
The extreme weather of low temperature, rain, snow and freezing in Hunan, Anhui and other areas leads to a very severe situation in energy, electricity and transportation. Many enterprises failed to replenish raw materials in time, and their products could not be sold normally because of insufficient power supply.
Xiangtan electrochemical announced today that the company and its holding subsidiaries Hunan Xiang Jin Electrochemical Co., Ltd. and Xiangtan Zhongxing Thermal Power Co., Ltd. will stop production with immediate effect. The company said that the reason for the suspension of production was unstable power supply, and it was difficult to transport raw materials such as coal, manganese carbonate and sulfuric acid normally. The production suspension will last until after the Spring Festival, and the company tentatively resumes production on February 14, 2008 when the weather improves.
Liuguo Chemical Company disclosed today that Anhui Province and its surrounding areas, where the company is located, suffered severe snowstorms. Due to the insufficient supply of main raw materials such as synthetic ammonia and coal, some devices in the company's headquarters and subsidiaries have reduced production, which has a great impact on the company's production and operation. At present, the company is working hard to overcome the difficulties caused by the snowstorm, reduce the losses caused by the disaster, and strive to resume normal production and operation as soon as possible.
For similar reasons, Chenzhou Mining announced yesterday that the company headquarters and major mining subsidiaries in Hunan Province have stopped production one after another, and it is difficult to resume production before the Spring Festival, which will affect the company's performance in the first quarter.
The heavy snow pressed out the illusion of coal inventory.
Undoubtedly, it is the severe cold that has not happened for many years, adding another fire to the rapidly rising coal price.
Cold and warm weather in winter is often the main driving force of short-term fluctuations in fuel prices. Twenty days ago, NYMEX crude oil futures price broke through the 100 mark in one fell swoop, but at the same time of that sharp rise, the fuel oil futures price in this market did not soar with crude oil. The reason is simple: the climate in the United States is warmer this winter, and the market demand for fuel oil is lower than in previous years.
In the last ten days of June 5438+ 10, the fuel demand in China was just the opposite. The sudden low temperature makes coal stocks in various places in a hurry, and coal stocks naturally become the target of speculators.
According to the news from the investment community in Shanghai, the local coal inventory could only meet the demand for 3-4 days last weekend, far below the normal inventory level of 15 days. This shortage is more severe in many provinces with poor traffic in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
At the same time, under the expectation of price increase, many coal middlemen have also moved the idea of hoarding, and the gap between supply and demand has further widened.
In this emergency, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the Notice on Establishing the Daily Information System for Power Coal Supply and Dispatching in Some Areas. Relevant departments and enterprises are required to establish a daily system of dispatching information for coal supply and report dispatching information daily.
Obviously, the policy intention of the joint efforts of ministries and commissions is to arrange transportation capacity and rectify the phenomenon of coal hoarding, and the recent surge in coal prices is expected to be controlled.
However, the fact that affects the balance of supply and demand at the other end is the adjustment of coal production capacity.
After the Hongdong mine disaster, the integration of small and medium-sized coal enterprises has obviously intensified. According to the 11th Five-Year Plan, the production capacity of existing small coal mines has been reduced from 654.38+0.8 billion tons in 2005 to 700 million tons. According to this forecast, CIC Securities predicted that the planned national raw coal production capacity in 20 10 is only 2.69 billion tons, and the actual production capacity may be higher than the plan, reaching 3 100 million tons. However, in 20 10, China's coal consumption may reach 3.259 billion tons.
Under the background of rigid policy, the shortage of domestic coal supply can be seen.
This has been reflected in the recent growth. At present, the pit price in Shanxi, the main coal producing area in China, has reached 330 yuan/ton -365 yuan/ton, up 20% from the beginning of 65438+February last year, and the price of the transit site represented by Qinhuangdao Terminal has also increased from 535 yuan/ton -545 yuan/ton in the beginning of 65438+February to 620 yuan/ton -635 last weekend.
According to the above logic, the continuous dynamic gap between supply and demand will continue to cause coal prices to continue to rise. This has also become the reason why the coal plate was not crushed by heavy snow on the 28th.
The power industry is facing a severe test.
"Cold weather and freezing ground" aggravate the contradiction of coal and electricity supply
As previously reported by the media, power plants in many provinces and regions of China Southern Power Grid have been shut down in a large area, and the national coal inventory for power generation is approaching the warning line; There is a power shortage of 69.63 million kilowatts in China, and 13 provincial power grids have some unfavorable conditions such as power cut-off to varying degrees. The bad weather, which is quite different from the same period last year, is undoubtedly the "culprit".
Wei Yao, a researcher in Guotai Junan Power Industry, pointed out that the recent large-scale snowfall and low-temperature weather in Central China are the direct reasons for the decline of coal stocks in Central China Power Grid and the power cuts in many provinces.
At the same time, he added that the large-scale power shortage in the country is not only due to extreme weather conditions.
"Since the second coal-electricity linkage, the cumulative increase in coal prices has been too large, especially the increase in key contract coal prices and market prices in 2008, which makes the short-term profit prospects of the whole thermal power industry not optimistic, and the subjective motivation of power generation enterprises to improve their power generation and sales capacity is not strong, which is also an important reason for the above-mentioned power shortage." Wei Yao thinks.
Huatai Securities, a researcher in the power industry, also pointed out that poor transportation caused by continuous large-scale snowfall has also aggravated the shortage of power supply.
He said that the main reason for the current tight power supply is the bad weather different from the same period last year. "The continuous cold weather has led to a sharp increase in the demand for electricity heating in southern residents, which is completely different from the off-season of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter and early last year. Obviously, many power companies underestimate this. In addition, rainfall and snowfall in cold weather have forced transportation in many areas to be paralyzed or extremely difficult, which has also made the coal supply of some thermal power enterprises worse. "
For example, he said: "The coal produced in Shanxi and other inland provinces can't be shipped out, and the imported coal for power supply can't be shipped out at the port, which makes it more difficult for many power supply enterprises that use coal as power generation raw materials to increase their load for power generation in a short time. After all, it is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice! "
Lack of electricity is not equal to "crisis"
Despite the tight power supply and vast areas, many market participants in the power industry remain optimistic. They all said that the power supply shortage is far from a "crisis". With the timely introduction of the safeguard policies of the relevant state departments, the coordinated and stable response of Qixin throughout the country, and the gradual weakening of cold and snowy weather, the power supply tension will be quickly alleviated and finally completely solved.
A researcher in the power industry in orient securities has repeatedly stressed that it is inappropriate to call this power shortage "power crisis". He believes: "This power shortage happens to be the result of an unusual combination of weather, traffic, coal price, power supply and demand, coal reserves and other factors. This accidental factor, which has not happened for decades, just gathered in one place today, and the tension of power supply was suddenly amplified. "
He said: "The temperature in southern China has dropped, which has increased the demand for electricity compared with previous years; Rain and snow weather hindered the smooth transportation of coal; The current situation of national rectification and the further appearance of the shutdown effect of small coal mines make the power supply quite tight. However, we should pay more attention to the fact that the power supply shortage this time is not that China's power supply capacity cannot meet the numerous needs of the national economy and people's livelihood, but a series of chain reactions caused by disastrous weather factors. As power supply enterprises resume production and increase load operation, coal enterprises that stopped production in some areas resume production after rectification to meet safety conditions, and with the emergency policy guarantee of the National Development and Reform Commission's "civil priority, coal transportation gives green light", the power supply in the affected areas should soon return to normal. "
The above Huatai Securities researcher also expressed the same view. He added: "I want to know whether the power shortage of nearly 70 million kilowatts reported by relevant media is accurate enough. However, according to previous data, the national power gap should not exceed 50 million kilowatts. Moreover, climate conditions, power supply facilities and other factors are different throughout the country, and it is difficult to find an accurate figure. "
He said that with the timely and unified deployment of the National Development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments, as enterprises that stopped production resume production one after another, the railway and transportation departments will strengthen coal transportation scheduling, and under the premise of giving priority to ensuring the living electricity of important users and residents such as transportation, coal mines, hospitals, radio and television, and financial systems, this power supply "crisis" will soon pass.