The fluctuation of commodity prices is mainly influenced by basic factors such as market supply and demand, that is, any economic factor that reduces supply or increases consumption will lead to the change of price increase; On the contrary, any factor that increases supply or decreases commodity consumption will lead to an increase in inventory and a decrease in price. However, with the development of modern economy, some non-supply and demand factors are also playing an increasingly important role in the changes of futures prices, which makes the futures market more complicated and unpredictable. The basic factors affecting futures price changes are summarized as follows:

relationship between supply and demand

Futures trading is the product of market economy, so its price changes are affected by the relationship between market supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand, futures prices fall; On the contrary, futures prices will rise.

business cycle

In the futures market, price changes are also affected by the economic cycle, and price fluctuations will occur at all stages of the economic cycle.

government policy

Some policies and measures formulated by governments of various countries will have different degrees of influence on the futures market price.

Political factor

The futures market is very sensitive to the change of political climate, and the occurrence of various political events will often have different degrees of impact on prices.

social factor

Social factors refer to the public's ideas, social psychological trends and the information influence of the media.

Seasonal coefficient

Many futures commodities, especially agricultural products, have obvious seasonality, and their prices fluctuate with the changes of seasons.

psychologic factor

The so-called psychological factors are traders' confidence in the market, which is also called "popularity". If you are optimistic about a commodity, even if there are no favorable factors, the price of the commodity will rise; When you are bearish, there is no news of profit and weakness, and the price will also fall. For another example, some large speculative commodities often use people's psychological factors to spread some news and artificially sell or supplement speculative commodities in large quantities to seek speculative profits.

variable factor

In the process of world economic development, inflation, currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations in various countries have become common phenomena in economic life, which have brought increasingly obvious influence on the futures market.

Large scale manipulation

Although the futures market is a "completely competitive" market, it is still inevitably manipulated and controlled by some powerful big households, resulting in speculative prices.