The first type: the volume of transactions increases, the positions increase, and the prices rise. This combination shows that the transaction is active, and the strength of the buyer (multiple parties) is greater than that of the seller (empty party). Although both long and short sides are adding positions, new buyers are actively adding positions, chasing up and down, indicating that bulls have a higher view of the upside in the market outlook. This combination relationship has a strong upward momentum, and prices may continue to rise in the short term.
The second type: the volume of transactions decreases, the positions decrease, and the prices rise. This means that the long and short wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, reducing transactions, lightening positions and raising prices. Refers to the short throw in the towel, began to take the initiative to cover positions (that is, buy hedging) to push up prices, which led to price increases in the process of lightening positions.
The study of location includes two directions. One is to study the changes of long and short positions of members, with the aim of finding the members with the highest correlation between position changes and price trends. In my research, the author once found that once a member's position in Hujiao enters the top 20 (only the top 20 is announced), Hujiao has an 80% possibility to break through in the direction that is beneficial to the member's position, with high accuracy. This shows that the customers in this member office either have an unimaginable judgment on the market or are inextricably linked with the main force (possibly the main force), and always get on the sedan chair first. Of course, you can also study reverse indicator members. This research method can help customers find the direction sign, but the disadvantage is that if customers change futures companies, researchers don't know that the trading strategy based on it ends in failure.
Another way to study positions is to study the relationship among stock price, position and volume. Theoretically, there are three possibilities for the price trend: constant, rising and falling. However, considering that it is very unlikely that the price will remain stable, even if it exists, it will be instantaneous. In practical research, only rise and fall are considered. In this way, there are only eight possible combinations of price, position and volume. Two combinations are introduced above, and the market significance of four combinations is introduced below.
The third combination: increase in trading volume, decrease in positions and increase in prices. This combination shows that the empty side has taken the initiative to close the position. If it appears at the bottom, it shows that the price has risen slightly, because the price has fallen to the bottom, and the empty side has a good mentality, while many parties are worried and will not pull up immediately. However, if it appears at the top, bears are eager to close their positions and "flee for their lives" to chase up the price level, while bulls only passively close their positions at high positions and do not actively suppress their forces, thus showing the characteristics of a sharp rise in prices.
The fourth combination: volume increases, positions increase and prices fall. This means that both long and short positions add positions, but short positions take the initiative to add positions and chase prices to sell. The reason why sellers dare to chase is because they judge that there is still a lot of room for price decline. However, the bulls are unwilling to admit defeat and also passively add positions in the low position. Therefore, if this combination is oversold in a short period of time and seriously deviates from the average price, it will lead to short-term speculators and new multi-party intervention, some of them will cash out, and the price V-shaped reversal is more likely.
The fifth combination: the volume of transactions is reduced, the position is reduced, and the price is reduced. This combination shows that long and short positions reduce trading and tend to wait and see, but long positions are actively closing positions. The decrease in trading volume shows that bulls are more rational and are looking for the ideal price in no hurry, so the price decline is gentle, but the decline will maintain a trend.
The sixth combination: the volume increases, the position decreases and the price falls. This combination shows that both long and short sides have trading intentions, but short positions are unwilling to continue to add positions, while the decrease in positions and the decline in prices indicate that long positions are eager to close their positions and sell them after the price. The chasing power mainly comes from doing more stop-loss power. Therefore, after the price drops sharply, once the positions begin to increase, it means that new bulls begin to intervene, and those who think they are wrong re-enter the market, and the price may rebound sharply.
The market significance of these six combinations is not absolute. Experienced investors not only pay attention to the trading language on the disk, but also often use the market significance of these combinations to make buying and selling judgments.