From 65438 to 2009, in Wuzhen Township Market at the beginning of the 20th century, even the mulberry seedlings of the "old medicine" generation had corresponding buyers. At that time, the foreign and domestic silk market was relatively stable, and some "people who can be counted far away" may divide land management and decide to invest in the medium and long term. Huang Caifa, a well-off farmer who is one of the best in the village, went to Shixiang specially to buy old medicine for planting. Planting "old Yao" is bound to divide up an open space that will be put on hold for ten years to collect profits, because "it will take at least ten years to transfer these" old Yao "to use!" He first paid the opportunity cost of this land; "He has a piece of land, which is said to be half dry, so he must wake it up; He spent 30 cents on two old mulberry seedlings and planted them in that field. "
Ten years of trees. "In the past ten years, how much effort he has paid for those small mulberry trees; Not only hard work, but also money! He bought river mud twice to fertilize this dry land. For more than a decade, he and his two sons have taken turns to go to the town to fetch water for others, and almost all of them have been used in this mulberry field. " It is not difficult to see that the family production activities of cultivating mulberry seedlings consume various resources that the Huang family can control, including "waste fertilizer" as a financial resource, "carrying water for others" as a form of human resources transformation, "painstaking management" as a human resource, and ten years of time resources (note: economists believe that the value of this scarce resource is its "opportunity cost". See Zhu's Social Phenomenon from the Perspective of Economics, Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1998, p. 26. )。 10 years later, input has output. 1930, Xinsang Garden "gave him thirty loads of leaves."
To Huang Caifa's surprise, the evil waves of the world capitalist economic crisis hit the deep countryside in the south of the Yangtze River. 1933 when the silkworm is ripe, "people buy expensive leaves for the silkworm to eat, and the Huang family eats them themselves." But silkworm cocoons can't afford to sell money, and Huang Caifa just made a break. "Otherwise, Huang Caifa will inevitably make many silkworm farmers lose money. Huang Caifa quickly responded to the market information: "I will make a determined effort not to raise silkworms next year. I want to sell leaves." However, the ever-changing leaf market completely "subverted his wishful thinking for more than ten years": the price of leaves was ridiculously high from the beginning; The "Yexing" in the town is the general organ that "buys and sells" mulberry leaves in Fiona Fang for two or three hundred miles, but this year it is called "there is no market with scales"; At the beginning of one yuan and two loads, Huang Caifa was reluctant to sell, and later fell to one yuan and four loads. Huang Caifa wants to sell it, but he can't sell it.
By this time, there is no possibility for the Huang family to invest in mulberry seedlings for a long time: "His present situation is not as good as that of ten years ago. 10 years ago, he could' shelve' this land for nothing, waiting for it to regenerate ten years later. Now he can't wait. He is heavily in debt, and he needs money to pay his donation! " As a result, the people who bought mulberry seedlings in Shixiang, Wuzhen disappeared from Huang Caifa, the "old Yao", and basically became self-sufficient sericulture farmers who were prepared to make short-term investments.
Self-sufficiency is the instinctive reaction of silkworm farmers to market risks. As early as the Ming and Qing Dynasties, with the development of commodity agriculture, sericulture farmers were divided into mulberry farmers who got rid of self-sufficiency and produced exclusively for the market. The separation of planting mulberry and raising silkworm has produced a "vein" to communicate the two. "Qing Wu Literature" said: "Anyone who raises silkworms, or who lacks their own mulberry leaves, will keep the mulberry of the other sex." (Note: Qing Wu Literature by Qianlong, Volume II, Agriculture and Mulberry. Although there are certain risks in the transaction in Ye Hang, the mature township Ye Hang adopts the pre-purchase system and trades in the form of futures, which to some extent enhances Ye Nong's risk tolerance (Note: See Oda: Modern Transformation of Township Society in the South of the Yangtze River, China Commercial Press, 1997, p. 183. )。 In the early 1930s, the local market closely related to the world capitalist market became more and more unpredictable, and the leaf market in the south of the Yangtze River also entered a disorderly operation state. Silkworm farmers who know little about market information can't judge the degree of market risk, so they try to reduce the links connected with the market. In this case, the number of sericulture farmers who are self-sufficient in mulberry leaves has greatly increased. "In a village of forty or fifty people, there are only five or six households that raise silkworms, all of which are their own leaves." Self-sufficient mulberry leaves need mulberry seedlings, and the mulberry seedling trade in Xiangshi is very lively.
Adam Smith, a classical economist, believes that consumers must be rational economic men who pursue the greatest interests. However, in the rural temple fairs in the early 1930s, the role of sericulture farmers was quite passive. In the face of many mulberry seedlings, the advantages and disadvantages are clear at a glance: "The two-pronged' big brother' has taken over, ... planted in the ground, you can get good mulberry leaves in two years at most", while "the younger brothers below the' second brother' are far from talented, even if they are similar to the' eldest brother' ... some of them have to wait five years to produce leaves". Of course, silkworm farmers prefer "big brother" "However, the villagers returned the price and looked at their wallets. When there was not enough money for the boss, they wanted to buy the second child and the third child.
Here, silkworm farmers are helpless: in order to cope with the increasingly dangerous leaf market, they have to make short-term investment and choose the "boss" who "will give you good mulberry leaves in two years at most". However, under the dual constraints of different prices of mulberry seedlings and limited ability to pay, they can only make medium-term investment and choose mulberry seedlings that "sometimes take five years to grow leaves". This choice behavior actually means that silkworm farmers who try to feed themselves with mulberry leaves can't bypass the risky leaf market for the time being.
Under the historical conditions of modern China, the realistic market behavior is bound by social and cultural factors, which is far more puzzling than the "ideal" market behavior, especially the farmers' market behavior; Temple market provides a space for us to understand this market behavior.