Since Trump's victory led to the rise of the dollar, the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar has weakened. However, the euro did not weaken against the G 10 currency, but rose against the Japanese yen. Previously, the market strongly expected the Trump administration to implement fiscal stimulus policies, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in June 20 16, and revised the "bitmap" of interest rate expectations, which provided support for the US dollar.

Looking into the future, the prospect of the euro will depend on whether President-elect Donald Trump of the United States has the ability to implement a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy, and when the market will start pricing and when the European Central Bank will stop buying QE. Hedge funds short the euro, but "mom's money" does not meet the bank's exclusive capital flow, suggesting that there is a balance risk in the position.

20 16 EUR/USD has fallen below the bearish target. At present, it is estimated that EUR/USD will fall to 1.02 in the middle of 20 17, strengthen in the second half of the year, and return to 1.05 at the end of 20 17.

Related risks: multiple risks

20 17 The weak US economic data in the first quarter makes it difficult for Congress to approve fiscal stimulus measures, which may lead to a further decline in the US dollar and support the euro. The market may begin to challenge the loose stance of the European Central Bank, and it is expected that it will cut QE at the beginning of the year. However, the elections in France and Italy show that the euro will face significant tail risks. In the second half of the year, the focus will be on the successor of Federal Reserve Yellen, or the euro will continue to fall against the US dollar.