By the evening of 20201October 6th 165438+PTA Main Force 2/kloc-0 10 yuan, the contract had closed at 32 10/,the lowest since its listing.
I think there are a lot of abuse in major futures forums, and they have all fallen to this point. Why do you still go down every day? Is there a bottom?
I can understand the anger of these friends
Didn't Fu Haitang, a master of futures, say that when the price of a commodity is low to a certain extent, the willingness of enterprises to produce will decrease and the number of commodities will decrease. Only by raising prices to stimulate production, otherwise the industry will be ruined.
Why doesn't this theory work on PTA?
Futures prices hit a new low since listing in 2007. What else do you want? What's more, spot discount futures are lower than futures by 200 yuan. How can we keep people alive?
I have been paying attention to PTA for half a year. Why should we pay attention to it? The reason is the same as most people, the price is low.
But after in-depth study of PTA, I came to the conclusion that we can't bargain-hunting, and we can't short. The best choice is to wait and see. So, I watched it for half a year.
Not only that, when I communicate with my friends in the circle, I constantly advise you not to do more PTA. Now it seems that I did a good thing. Questioning my friend who is Monday morning quarterback, I can provide chat records to testify. Ha ha laugh
Here, I want to share with you my views on the whole PTA industry.
Writing articles doesn't like to list a lot of data, statements and graphic reports, which makes everyone daunting. I will try my best to make the truth clear with simple and clear analysis. Let everyone study without pressure.
What does PTA industry rely on to make money?
PTA is the midstream industry of chemical industry, with the upstream affected by oil price and the downstream affected by polyester demand. The largest demand for polyester is chemical fiber textile polyester, accounting for 75% of the total demand. Therefore, the demand for PTA mainly depends on the downturn of the textile industry.
So what does PTA industry rely on to make money?
As PTA is a midstream industry, enterprises purchase PX, add acetic acid and catalyst, and then refine it into PTA. Therefore, PTA industry essentially earns processing fees. It is the difference between buying PX, processing it into PTA and selling it. Generally speaking, you earn hard money for dry processing.
The cost composition of PTA mainly includes two parts: raw material cost and processing cost.
The cost of raw materials is mainly the cost of PX. In terms of production technology, it takes 0.655 tons of PX to produce one ton of PTA, so PTA raw material cost = PX price × 0.655;
Processing costs include three categories: first, the cost of accessories: acetic acid, catalysts, etc. ; Second, the power cost: the power that the equipment needs to consume; Three. Financial expenses: equipment depreciation, three expenses, etc.
As mentioned above, the PTA industry earns the difference after PX is processed into PTA, so
PTA processing fee = sales price-raw material cost
Processing fee is a very important index. Reflects the prosperity of the entire PTA industry. When the processing fee is at a high level, the profit is considerable, and the enterprise has a strong willingness to start work, which represents a high degree of prosperity in the industry; On the other hand, it means that the industry is in a low boom.
Is PTA processing fee the profit of the enterprise?
Of course not. The processing fee only reflects the difference between PTA sales price and raw material cost, and there is another processing cost that is not included. So,
PTA profit = processing fee-processing cost
For PTA enterprises, the processing cost is uniform in the whole industry. In order to improve enterprise profits, we must make a fuss about controlling processing costs. And the articles in it are still very big.
Do PTA enterprises make money now?
At present, PTA prices and processing fees are at historical lows. Is it true that PTA enterprises suffer serious losses? Why don't enterprises stop production? Why are the prices so low that some leading enterprises continue to launch expansion plans?
Simply put, do PTA enterprises make money now? When communicating with friends in the futures circle, I found that many people don't really understand this problem.
This is nothing to be surprised about. In fact, it is quite complicated to thoroughly understand this problem.
As of 1 1.5, the PTA processing fee is 463.77 yuan/ton, the futures price is about 3,200 yuan, and the spot price is about 200 yuan/ton.
Can companies still make money at such a low price?
The answer is: not necessarily.
In view of the problems in the previous section, the key lies in the processing cost control of enterprises.
A very important phenomenon in chemical industry is that the structure of equipment determines the treatment cost.
Different equipment structures determine different processing costs for producing the same variety. The processing cost of the old device is higher, and the processing cost of the new device is lower.
The reason for the low processing cost of the new device is that the conversion rate of raw materials is improved and the unit consumption of raw materials is reduced, that is, the new device can get more finished products by consuming the same raw materials. Therefore, with the continuous upgrading of equipment, the processing cost of new equipment is decreasing.
Another important factor that determines the processing cost is the scale of the enterprise.
There is a concept in economics called economies of scale. With the continuous expansion of output scale, the average cost is decreasing. This phenomenon is also called "marginal effect". Simply put, the bigger the enterprise, the higher the marginal effect and the lower the average cost.
Zhuochuang Information divides the devices into three categories: the capacity of Class A is below 6.5438+0.4 million tons, the capacity of Class B is between 6.5438+0.5-22 million tons, and the capacity of Class C is above 2.2 million tons.
From the perspective of scale effect, the processing cost of class C devices is the lowest, and the processing cost of class A devices is the highest.
Judging from the current situation, the structural ratio of the three types of devices is generally A: B: C = 3: 2: 5.
Some insiders estimate that:
The total cost of Class B equipment is about 450, and Class A equipment is more than 700. That is to say, at present, the processing fee of 463, Class B equipment can barely draw even, and there is no loss, while Class A equipment has already lost about 240 yuan. Does that mean that this industry can't go on?
Not necessarily!
At present, the most advanced and lowest cost device is Hengli Petrochemical No.4 device, and its PTA production cost is only 3 19 yuan. After deducting amortization and depreciation, the variable cost is only 256 yuan.
What needs to be emphasized here is that whether the micro-enterprises in economics continue to produce depends not on whether the price falls below the full cost, but on whether it falls below the variable cost, that is, the cost after amortization and depreciation is deducted from the full cost.
That is to say, at present, with the processing fee of 463 yuan, Hengli Petrochemical still has a profit margin of about 150 yuan and a profit margin of 2 10 yuan before it is forced to stop production. People live a beautiful life.
So you will understand why the more leading enterprises push down their prices, the more they need to continuously expand their production capacity and install new equipment. People just take this opportunity to lower the price and eliminate your backward production capacity and small-scale enterprises.
Now is the best time for them to seize market share.
Besides, we must pay special attention to this figure. At present, under the most advanced equipment level, the bottom line of PTA cost is 256 yuan, which means that if the processing fee of PTA is less than 256 yuan, no one in the industry can really make money, so in theory, this value is the bottom line of PTA processing fee.
If even the most advanced equipment can't make money, no one in this industry really wants to do it. So, this number is very important!
Can PTA bargain-hunting?
Then simply analyze the fundamentals of PTA. The specific data will not be expanded, because my article is not an analysis report. Just say something definite.
The following figure shows the operating rate of PTA-related industries drawn by the fundamental quantitative system we developed. It can be seen that:
On the supply side, PTA operating rate has remained high since this year, the industry is producing at full capacity, and social inventory remains high. It is said that the storage capacity of the exchange delivery warehouse is full. And there will be a lot of new production capacity in the next two years. (see the picture below)
To sum up, the supply side is very abundant, and even a serious surplus is not an exaggeration.
On the demand side, this year's epidemic has dealt a great blow to the clothing industry, with domestic demand greatly reduced and exports extremely shrinking. Therefore, the early operating rate of the textile industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has not been high, running at around 50%~60%. Around the National Day, with the approaching of "double 1 1" and the arrival of the peak season of textile demand at the end of the year, the textile operating rate began to rise sharply, and it has reached the state of full load operation. Therefore, it will support the PTA price in the short term. However, this demand is seasonal and unsustainable.
Judging from the disk, the current spot price discount futures are around 200 yuan. Under the structure of negative basis, bulls are unwilling to enter the market to receive goods, and the delivery inventory is full, which is easy to lead to empty positions. So it's risky to do more at the bottom.
To sum up, the pattern of PTA's long-term supply exceeding demand has not changed. Do more at the bottom is not supported at all. However, due to the low price and the peak season of seasonal demand, there is a great possibility of a small increase in the short term, so the risk of shorting the current price is also great.
Therefore, the wisest choice at present is to wait and see.
Borrow a sentence from Fu Haitang as a summary. To grasp the big market, it is wise to wait patiently for major policy adjustments or major changes in the industry.