During the Asian session on Tuesday, the yen further weakened sharply. At present, USD/JPY has broken the 128 mark, hitting a 20-year high of 128.22.
If the yen against the US dollar still can't reverse the overall situation in Europe and America, it will continue to fall by 13 trading days, which will be the longest daily losing streak since 197 1 began to count relevant data.
With the further weakening of the yen, the discussion around this topic has also sparked heated discussions on domestic social media.
By Tuesday 13, Beijing time, the topic labels of "Japanese Yen" and "RMB approaching the 20 mark against Japanese Yen" had been listed in the top ten hot searches in Weibo.
In fact, while the above-mentioned hot search for Japanese yen triggered a hot discussion on the whole network, the exchange rate of RMB against Japanese yen officially broke the 20 mark today, which is the first time since the RMB exchange rate reform in the third quarter of 20 15. This also means that the value of 100 yen is less than that of 5 yuan RMB when domestic tourists or overseas students need to exchange foreign exchange in the future.
The yen has never been able to get out of the quagmire.
Coincidentally, this round of 13 consecutive losses of the Japanese yen exchange rate started from April 1, the first trading day of this month. Since then, the yen has fallen by nearly 600 points, or about 4.5%.
And if you count from the beginning of the year, the decline of the yen is undoubtedly even more amazing. At present, the yen has weakened against other G 10 currencies and major emerging market currencies. Among them, the Japanese yen has fallen by more than 10% against G 10 currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar during the year, while it has fallen by nearly 25% against the Brazilian real, the world's strongest currency this year.
The performance of the yen during the year was even weaker than that of the Russian ruble, which is still deeply mired in geopolitical crisis.
Analysts pointed out that the main reason for the rapid depreciation of the yen during the year was the deviation between the financial and monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and those of major central banks in Europe and America. Dove Bank of Japan still keeps the yield of Japanese bonds at a low level through the yield curve control policy, while the yield of US bonds soared during the year due to the expectation of a sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The yield of 10-year US bonds has now risen above the 2.85% mark.
In addition, international commodity prices have generally risen recently, and the yen has also been affected by Japan's status as a commodity importer. According to the data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance earlier, due to the deterioration of the trade balance caused by rising import prices, Japan's current account surplus turned into a deficit in May 438+February last year after four consecutive months of year-on-year decline. This year's inverse difference is 1. 1.887 trillion yen. It is estimated that Japan's current account deficit may appear for the first time in 42 years this year.
At present, foreign exchange traders in Tokyo are realizing that the decline of the yen, which has fallen to a 20-year low, may continue in the next few months, and this round of decline will only stabilize after it falls to 1 USD 130 yen.
According to the data of Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the bearish bets of asset management companies increased to a record high last week, and the net short position of leveraged funds was close to the highest level in more than three years.
Bipan Rai, head of foreign exchange strategy at CIBC, said, "The trend of the yen is unbelievable, but given the different policy positions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, it should not be completely unexpected."
Japanese officials have no intention to intervene for the time being.
For the current decline of the yen, the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance have recently indicated that they are paying close attention to it, and at the same time, they have begun to warn of the possible disadvantages caused by the rapid depreciation of the yen. However, at present, it is still unlikely that Japanese policymakers will intervene in the yen exchange rate rashly.
Suzuki Shunichi, Japan's finance minister, said in Parliament on Tuesday that the yen is weakening rapidly, pointing out that this may be harmful to the Japanese economy.
"Of course, this has a positive side, but given the current economic environment, it also has a strong negative impact," Suzuki said. He refers to the rising import costs and the damage caused by currency depreciation to enterprises that cannot pass on the rising costs. "We are paying close attention to the trend of foreign exchange market with high vigilance."
However, Suzuki Shunichi also said that the exchange rate itself is determined by the market. This means that the Japanese monetary authorities still do not intend to take measures other than verbal warnings, which usually have limited impact on the trend of the foreign exchange market.
On Monday, Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan, said, "The yen has depreciated by about 65,438+00 yen against the US dollar in about one month, which is quite drastic and may make it difficult for enterprises to make business plans. In this sense, we need to consider the negative impact of a weak yen. "
But Haruhiko Kuroda also reiterated that the Bank of Japan must maintain a large-scale stimulus plan to support the fragile economic recovery. He still believes that the depreciation of the yen is beneficial to the overall economy.
The last time the Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market by "selling dollars to buy yen" was at the height of the Asian financial crisis in June 1998. In fact, because the huge current account surplus often brings upward pressure on the yen, most of Japan's traditional interventions are to depress the yen. The Bank of Japan has not really set foot in the foreign exchange market since 2011.
As we pointed out in yesterday's article, in history, Japan, once accused by the US Treasury as a currency manipulator, often had its own "rhetoric" before it really intervened in the foreign exchange market.
In the past, in the comments of the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance on exchange rates, investors can often divide them into different grades according to the anxiety expressed by their words. From the current standpoint, the Bank of Japan's attitude towards the depreciation of the yen is gradually changing from "increasing concern" to "increasing concern", but at least for now, it is far from being able to directly intervene.
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