At the same time, the price of the main corn contract, 220 1 today, is indifferent in the context of the continuous decline of the US dollar index, which is "abnormal". What is the reason?
According to the market chart, the US dollar index has been falling continuously recently, from 10 to 13, and then to 14: 00 and 15: 57. After two transactions, the dollar index fell by 659 points, that is, the dollar depreciated by 0.69%.
As we all know, the US dollar index and the corn price run in the opposite direction, that is, the US dollar index goes down and the corn price goes up, or the US dollar index goes up and the corn price goes down.
Today, however, the dollar index and corn prices have fallen simultaneously. Bian Xiao felt that there must be a reason for this "abnormality". According to the market chart, yesterday, the price of 12, the main contract of American corn, fell sharply. Today, although the main contract price of US corn 12 "opened higher and went higher", it rose slightly, but the rebound rate was very small.
From this point of view, the sharp drop in the contract price of corn 220 1 today is in line with the market operation law. There is a simple reason. The decline in the main contract price of US corn 12 will lead to the decrease in the cost of importing overseas corn in China, thus forcing the domestic corn price to fall.
Recently, however, the dollar index has continued to fall. It stands to reason that the main contract price of US corn 12 should rise. Previously, Bian Xiao always emphasized the "negative correlation" between the US dollar index and corn prices, while ignoring the essential reasons for the "ups and downs" of corn prices.
In fact, the most important factor that determines the rise and fall of corn price is whether the relationship between supply and demand of corn is unbalanced. Under normal circumstances, if the demand remains unchanged and the supply increases, the price of corn will fall, or if the demand remains unchanged and the supply decreases, the price of corn will rise.
Recently, the main contract price of corn 12 in the United States has been falling continuously, indicating that the supply of corn in the United States is "increasing", so the contract price of corn 220 1 main contract is "sharply declining" today.
It is reported that yesterday morning, USDA released the monthly corn report of 10. The data shows that the corn planting area in the United States is expected to be 93.3 million mu in June 5438+1October 202//2022, and it is expected to be 93.3 million mu in September, which is the same as last month. In June 5438+1October, the corn harvest area in the United States 20265438+1October /2022 is expected to be 8565438+ million mu, and in September it is expected to be 8565438+ million mu, which is the same as last month.
However, in June, 5438+ 10, the annual corn output in the United States is expected to be 176.5 bushels/acre, and in September, it is expected to be 176.3 bushels/acre, an increase of 0.2 bushels/acre over the previous month. In June 5438+ 10, the annual corn yield in the United States 20265438+ 10 /2022 is expected to be 150 19 million bushels, and in September it is expected to be14,996 million bushels, an increase of 20% from the previous month.
At the same time, the total corn supply in the United States in June 20021/2022 is expected to be162.8 million bushels, and it is expected to be162.08 million bushels in September, an increase of 72 million bushels from the previous month. In June, 5438+ 10, the total corn consumption in the United States is expected to be10 /2022, and it is expected to be147.8 billion bushels in September, a decrease of 20 million bushels from the previous month.
In addition, in June, 5438+ 10, the ending inventory of corn in the United States in 20021/2022 is expected to be1500 million bushels, and it is expected to be1408 million bushels in September, an increase of 92 million bushels from the previous month.
That is to say, the contract price of corn 220 1 main force has turned sharply today, because the supply of corn 5438+00 in the United States increased and the inventory increased in June. Therefore, the decline of the US corn 12 main contract price has not been affected by the decline of the US dollar index.
In addition, as the high inflation in the United States continues to ferment in the future, the market's expectations for the Fed to reduce the scale of asset purchases are also "heating up". In other words, when the US dollar index rebounds, it will also play an important role in the decline of corn 220 1 main contract price.
The data shows that the data shows that the annual CPI of the United States in September was 5.4%, the expected value was 5.3%, and the previous value was 5.3%. From the data point of view, in September, the inflation rate in the United States was not only "underestimated", but also "higher" than in August.
In other words, the inflation rate in the United States did not "peak" at all in July, which also made the comments of Federal Reserve Powell questioned. Earlier, Powell said that the high inflation in the United States was only "temporary".
In this regard, at 2 am today, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on September 2 1-22.
According to the minutes of the meeting, participants believe that the Fed is close to achieving its economic goals and may soon start policy normalization by reducing the speed of monthly asset purchases.
At the same time, most officials agree that the gradual debt reduction plan may start in the middle of 10 or February, and may end in the middle of 2022.