Two short-selling forces led to a continuous decline in the A-share market: severe real estate regulation triggered a general decline in real estate stocks, hurting financial stocks and dragging down the A-share stock index; Different from the other main market force of the fund, it has gone up, deliberately suppressing or shorting bank stocks with the help of leverage effect to achieve the purpose of shorting the A-share market.
Since the listing of 16 stock index futures in April, the A-share stock index has experienced a sharp decline. As a result, some people blame the decline of A shares on stock index futures. Actually, it is not. Although the listing of stock index futures has a certain impact on the fluctuation of A shares, the main impact still comes from the spot market itself. This severe real estate regulation and control has led to the rapid decline of A-share real estate stocks, hurting financial stocks, leading to the decline of financial stocks, especially banking stocks, which is one of the main driving forces for the sharp decline of A-share stock indexes.
Then, why does the regulation of real estate trigger the decline of bank stocks? An important reason is that this severe real estate regulation began with the tightening of mortgages. Some analysts believe that the continuous inflow of bank credit is one of the fundamental reasons for the irrational prosperity of the domestic real estate market.
The reason why real estate regulation has such a great impact and influence on bank stocks is mainly because commercial banks have huge real estate loans. According to Wind statistics, at present, 12 listed banks have disclosed their 2009 annual reports, involving 5.28 trillion yuan of real estate loans, accounting for 25. 14% of their total bank loans. Among them, the scale of mortgage loans of ICBC, BOC and CCB all exceeded one trillion yuan; The scale and proportion of personal loans of joint-stock banks such as Xingye, China Merchants, Minsheng and Shenzhen Development Bank are relatively large. Central bank data show that real estate loans continued to grow in the first quarter of this year. Among them, real estate development loans increased by 320.7 billion yuan, and the balance at the end of the quarter increased by 365,438+0.1%year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points over the end of last year; Personal housing loans increased by 522.7 billion yuan, and the balance at the end of the quarter increased by 53.4% year-on-year, up by 10.3 percentage points from the end of last year. All these data show that real estate loans account for a high proportion in the total loans of Chinese banks. When strict real estate regulation comes, the market will naturally worry about whether the quality of bank loans will deteriorate.
In addition, since mortgage is still one of the high-quality assets and main profit sources of commercial banks at present, it is stipulated that the down payment of the second home loan should not be less than 50%, the loan interest rate should not be lower than 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate, and the third home loan can be suspended in areas with high housing prices, which will inevitably lead to the change of bank credit from the current "demand is in short supply" to the future "demand is relatively insufficient".
Of course, there are also factors such as the pressure of commercial banks' refinancing and the risk of local government financing platforms, which have led to the decline of bank stocks. From the in-depth analysis of the decline of bank shares, it can be seen that the listed banks whose personal mortgage loans and mortgage loans account for a higher proportion of total loans also have a larger decline in their share prices.
However, in addition to the severe real estate regulation and control has a significant impact on the recent decline of bank stocks, there is also a force in the market that deliberately suppresses or shorts bank stocks, which has a prominent impact on this A-share decline.
It stands to reason that the P/E ratio and P/B ratio of bank stocks are already very low, and bank stocks have entered the safe margin of their investment. So, why do bank stocks go down? Observing the financial report of the domestic fund industry in the first quarter of this year, it is found that many domestic funds are substantially increasing their banking stocks. It can also be observed from the disk that the market force to suppress or short bank stocks is not the main force of the A-share market, but another market force that can compete with the main force of the fund or be the opponent's disk. This may be an attempt or preview of the A-share market by forces other than funds.