According to the information obtained at present, some newly locked wheat prices are concentrated above 1.4 yuan, among which the price of a batch of new wheat recently booked by China Grain Storage Anhui Branch is 2900 yuan/ton, and the price per catty reaches 1.45 yuan.
In fact, we mentioned in the previous broadcast that there are still nearly five months before the new corn comes on the market, and the total demand for corn is about1.1.700 million tons. According to the current market supply situation, even if a large number of corn, sorghum and barley are imported, it is expected that the market supply and demand situation will still be poor.
In this context, if the grain supply and demand of wheat are not affected, the purchase price can only be higher than that of corn to limit the amount of wheat in the feed, thus maintaining the balance between supply and demand of wheat.
On the occasion of the May Day holiday, we received news from the government.
According to the news from the National Grain Trading Center, the low bidding price of rice will be greatly reduced in May 1 future, and the lower the reserve price, the greater the reduction. Only in 2020 will the early indica rice be raised by 35 yuan/ton.
We know that in the past, rice also flowed to the feed field through directional trading, but mainly because of the prolonged storage time. Now, under the background that the corn price continues to run at a high level and has further increased, lowering the reserve price of rice auction will undoubtedly make rice flow to the feed field. Provide convenient conditions.
Moreover, according to the current minimum rice price of 2380 yuan/ton, it is far lower than the current mainstream quotation of 2900 yuan in the corn market.
In addition, we also notice that all the rice auctioned at present is the grain after 20 18, which also shows that the overstocked rice stored in China from 20 17 and before may have been consumed.
But this does not mean that the rice market will be in short supply.
On the one hand, according to the rice auction arranged by the state, the number of auctions dropped sharply from 1.8 million tons in the first week to 900,000 tons after the price reduction; On the other hand, as the highest variety in China, there are still about 654.38+400 million tons of rice in temporary storage, equivalent to 78% of the annual output.
In addition, after entering May, the new season rice in the south will be listed on a large scale.
In addition to the possibility of replacing corn feed with rice, we also noticed a problem.
According to the list of the first batch of approvals for the production and application of the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms in 2022 recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, four genetically modified corn varieties developed by enterprises such as Hangzhou Ruifeng and China Seed Group have been approved again, and the maize transgenic breeding technology is still accelerating.
Judging from the current development of domestic aquaculture, many pig breeding enterprises, including Muyuan, Zhengbang Technology and Shi Wen Co., Ltd., suffered losses in the first quarter, with Zhengbang Technology losing more than 1 10,000 yuan each.
However, since the end of April, with the promotion of the national central reserve frozen meat storage and the implementation of measures such as de-capacity of enterprises, pork prices have experienced a rare continuous increase, and the whole breeding situation is improving.
Let's look at the international market again. At present, Indonesia's palm oil problem is still a headache for the global grain and oil market.
It is reported that Indonesia has announced the conditions for resuming export, that is, when the price of bulk edible oil in Indonesia drops to 14000 rupiah per liter, the export ban can be lifted.
At present, the price of edible oil in Jakarta ranges from 9000 to 20000 rupiah per liter/kloc-0, which is about RMB 8.7 yuan per liter.
It is worth noting that before palm oil production in Southeast Asia, western countries have always accused it of forced labor, ecological damage and other problems, and therefore put pressure on Indonesia and Malaysia to limit their palm oil export scale.
Just in the middle of April, Italian chocolate giant Ferriero stopped using palm oil from Senami plantation on this land.
But now, due to Indonesia's palm oil export ban, everything has reversed, and more and more countries are beginning to worry about the future supply.
In response to the accusations of western countries such as the United States and Europe on the palm oil market, the news from Malaysia said that in order to protect their soybean and soybean oil industries, the United States and Europe constantly discriminated against and suppressed palm oil and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia.
According to the data, the four traditional food suppliers in the world are all American and European enterprises, occupying an absolute dominant position in the traditional soybean, wheat and corn markets, and gradually forming a global agricultural product pricing mechanism centered on the Chicago Board of Trade. It is difficult for countries including China to bypass these four traditional transnational food suppliers in food import.
However, we have also noticed that in this round of global commodity price increase, wheat, corn, soybeans and other varieties are mostly, while the rice market with sufficient supply in Southeast Asia is relatively mild.
However, in the end, rising global food prices still hurt low-income countries the most.
According to the African Development Bank, Africa needs to be fully prepared for the global food crisis. Some African countries are suffering from regional conflicts, climate change and epidemics. The current Russian-Ukrainian conflict is having a far-reaching impact on the whole world, including Africa. Rising energy and fertilizer prices are pushing up food prices in Africa.
At the same time, due to sanctions from western countries, it is difficult for Russian wheat to find buyers.
At present, Russian wheat has found a buyer, and the discount on the transaction price is $65,438 +00-20 per ton.
At the same time, in order to ensure the smooth transaction, Russian sellers have to bear additional expenses such as transportation and insurance, which makes the loss of grain income exported overseas as high as 70 US dollars/ton.
But for countries such as Europe and America, it is the best time to sell grain, because the global price of wheat and other grains is at the highest level in history.
According to the annual reports issued by the four major multinational grain suppliers, ADM in the United States achieved the best performance in fiscal year 20021,with operating income of $85.249 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. In fiscal year 20021,Bunge achieved a net sales income of $5.9/kloc-0.50 billion, up 43% year on year, and a net profit of $2.08 billion, up 8 1% year on year. Cargill achieved a total revenue of US$ 654.38+034.4 billion in fiscal year 2002/KLOC-0, up 654.38+07% year-on-year.
Louis Dreyfus was $49.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and its after-tax profit was $697 million, a year-on-year increase of 82%.