1. The downward pressure on the economy may ease slightly.
From September to October in 215, the difference between CPI and PPI reached more than 7.2 percentage points, which showed the deepening economic depression in China since the second half of 211. At present, the factors that make CPI decline are agricultural product prices and food prices, and the factors that make CPI rebound are the rising labor costs in cardinal utility and service industries. The factor that makes PPI decline lies in the continued strength of the US dollar index, and the factor that makes PPI improve lies in cardinal utility.
on a comprehensive balance, the difference between CPI and PPI in China may narrow moderately from November 215. The collocation of prices may imply that the downward pressure on China's economy will ease slightly in 216. At the same time, in the remaining two months of 215, the possibility of the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut will also be weakened.
2. The investment growth rate will fall below 1%.
in p>214 and 215, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in China was 2% and 17% respectively. It is expected that the growth rate of investment in China may fall below 1% in 216. Among the three major factors supporting investment, the possibility of improvement in industrial investment is very weak, and the growth rate of real estate investment will only be between and 3%. The key factor lies in government-led infrastructure investment. In 215, the scale of infrastructure investment may be 13.5 trillion yuan. Even if the growth rate of infrastructure investment is to be maintained at 12%, it means that the scale of infrastructure investment will be maintained at more than 15 trillion yuan in 216, which is extremely challenging. Even if the fiscal policy relaxes deficit ratio to 3% or even 3.5%, it will be difficult to support the continuous expansion of infrastructure investment, not to mention that the main way of fiscal force may be the tax reduction of supply-side policy, not infrastructure.
3. The profit rate of the real economy will be slightly improved.
in p>216, it is difficult to observe the improvement of China's real economy in terms of industrial investment, added value and total profit. However, perhaps the after-tax net profit rate of the main business of industrial enterprises above designated size will improve. This net profit rate will be 5.5% and 5.2% in 214 and 215 respectively. By 216, the profit rate of industrial enterprises may rebound slightly to the level in 214. There are two reasons: first, the market interest rate remains at a stable low level, which improves the financial cost of enterprises, and the replacement pricing of corporate debt cost may last for more than 3 years; Second, PPI may be improved. Therefore, there may be different opinions on the real economy in 216. Those who pay attention to the aggregate indicators tend to think that the real economy is still deteriorating, and those who pay attention to marginal indicators may think that there are signs of improvement.
4. The profit growth rate of China banking industry will enter the zero era.
This is not surprising. The marketization of interest rates is nearing completion, the shadow banking is shrinking again, the demand for physical loans is sluggish, and the income channels of intermediary business are exhausted, all of which have forced the banking industry in China to enter the era of zero profit growth from 216. In 215, the book profit of the banking industry may increase by about 3%. In the next two to three years, the general pattern of the banking industry is that the overall profit will increase by zero, the performance differentiation will intensify, the non-performing assets will be Shuang Sheng, the capital replenishment will be difficult, the merger and reorganization of the industry will accelerate, and bank holding will gradually become the mainstream. If most industries with overcapacity are industries that expanded too fast in the three years after the subprime mortgage crisis under government intervention, the banks that meet the government intervention and rapid expansion are mainly small and medium-sized city commercial banks.
5. RMB exchange rate is becoming more and more flexible.
At present, it seems very likely that RMB will join the SDR currency basket. 216 may be a year when RMB internationalization will gradually accelerate. The possible posture of the central bank is to reduce foreign exchange intervention, expand exchange rate volatility and guide RMB exchange rate to a balanced and sustainable level. Therefore, even if the US dollar remains strong in 216, the biggest feature of the RMB exchange rate is not depreciation, but the flexible expansion of the fluctuation range and the continuous enhancement of the market's self-regulation ability. It is not surprising if the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar finally fluctuates around 6.35 and reaches about 4%.
6. The consumption growth rate may increase to 11% or even higher.
There are two factors that lead to strong consumption: First, it is related to housing. The trading of stock houses and commercial houses is active. At present, China real estate does not have the ability to pull the investment end such as steel and cement, but it still has the ability to pull the consumer end such as household appliances. In 215, the sales area and amount of commercial houses may increase by 8% and 15% respectively, creating a historical peak beyond 213, and the real estate situation next year is more likely to be the same as this year. The second is the improvement of car-related, especially the sales amount of refined oil.
the popularization of "gnawing at the old" phenomenon has slowed down the income growth of residents and employment difficulties have not directly impacted consumption. In 216, the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth may rise to 6%, while the contribution rate of industry will continue to decrease.
7. The normalization of the A-share market is accelerated.
Looking back on the A-share market in China since 213, the financing function is intermittent, the supervision is loose or tight, and the market is hot and cold. It has never been a normalized and multi-level market with financing, restructuring and investor protection. After the extraordinary turmoil in July and August 215, the A-share market is accelerating from the abnormal state after the rescue to the new normal. The resumption of IPO, the landing of registration system, the stratification of the New Third Board and the normalization of stock index futures trading are just around the corner, and even strategic emerging boards and international boards are not far away. After RMB joins SDR, it will not be surprising if A shares that returned to normal in 216 are included in MSCI index.
Up to now, equity capital accounts for less than 5% of China residents' wealth allocation, while the ratio in the United States is 2%. In addition, non-residents' investment in China's securities market accounts for less than 3%. In 216, it is inevitable that China stock market will accelerate its normalization, marketization and internationalization reform.
8. Low interest rates have finally arrived.
since 211, the growth of China has been slowing down, but the interest rate level runs counter to the slowdown. There are two main factors: First, the shadow banking system is expanding, and the nominal interest rate raised by the leveraged and risky shadow banking has enriched the bank's profits, but at present, the shadow banking has shrunk again in China, and the proportion of bank credit in the total social financing has returned to a decisive position; Second, interest rate liberalization inevitably pushes up interest rates, narrows spreads and forces China's economy to bear the pressure of deleveraging. At present, interest rate liberalization has come to an end.
Therefore, since the second half of 215, the interest rate level in China has been gradually consistent with the slowdown of economic growth. If China's economic growth is unlikely to recover strongly in the next few years, then low interest rates will continue. There are three factors that will affect China's interest rate in the future: first, the overall trend of domestic prices; second, the willingness and means of the central bank's continuous easing; and third, the changes in the US dollar index and the yield of US Treasury bonds. Generally speaking, at least before the first half of 216, the interest rate level in China will be stable, and the debt reset of the government and enterprises will cause heavy pressure on the bond supply side, and credit bonds will break the shadow of just redemption.
9. China's foreign trade will suffer.
China's foreign trade grew at an average annual rate of 15% and 2% in the 199s and the first decade of the new century, respectively. However, this high growth has gradually faded away due to three factors: First, globalization is regressing, not accelerating. Emerging countries can no longer rely on external demand-oriented growth. China's current account surplus has shrunk from 5% to 1% of GDP at one time to just over 2% at present. Second, regionalism and protectionism are on the rise. The TPP/TTIP promoted by the United States has deviated from the WTO framework. The terrorist attacks in Paris will also force Europe to be more right-leaning and conservative. China may try its best to promote free trade and investment agreements with relevant economies, but it is difficult to reverse the overall situation. Third, the RMB exchange rate and export tax rebate are unlikely to be used to stimulate trade, and the growth of China's foreign trade will increasingly depend on the growth of China's ODI. In 216, China's foreign trade will still be in a state of suffering together with global trade.
1. China's financial reform will present a new pattern.
this new pattern has two characteristics, one is that financial reform is faster than the pace of real economy transformation, and the other is that financial opening and internationalization are faster than internal opening and marketization. The 13th Five-Year Plan provides a clear framework for China's financial reform. The reform of the regulatory framework, the internationalization of RMB and the RMB becoming a hard currency are all due fruits of the financial reform during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. However, it is still difficult for the real economy to achieve de-capacity, strategic transfer and the rise of emerging industries. At the same time, the financial opening layout with the AIIB, the "Belt and Road" strategy and the internationalization of RMB as the core may have less resistance than the marketization and privatization of domestic financial reform.
generally speaking, the new pattern of financial reform may gradually become clear from 216. The history of Japan, the United States and other countries shows that a country's initiative to guide the overseas distribution of savings and production capacity is a process in which money, industry and employment all go abroad, which will bring long-term suppression to domestic asset prices.