1984, the current account deficit of the United States reached a record 1000 billion dollars, and the trade friction between the United States and other countries, especially Japan, the main source of the deficit, intensified. To this end, the United States hopes to increase the export competitiveness of products through the depreciation of the dollar, thus improving the imbalance of international payments in the United States. 1In September, 1985, the finance ministers and central bank governors of five developed countries, including the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France and the United Kingdom, held a meeting in new york Plaza Hotel, and decided that the five governments would jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market, so as to make the US dollar fall against major currencies in an orderly manner, so as to increase the export competitiveness of American products and solve the huge trade deficit of the United States, which is known as the Plaza Agreement.
The "Plaza Accord" led to the continued sharp depreciation of the US dollar, among which the Japanese yen was the most affected. 1 985 in September, the yen exchange rate fluctuated between1USD and 250 yen. In less than three years, the dollar depreciated by 50% against the yen, and the lowest value fell to 1 to 120 yen. Subsequently, Japan's economy entered a downturn for more than a decade, which was called the "lost decade". Although the root cause of Japan's sustained economic depression lies in the defects of its own economic structure and the wrong economic policies of the Japanese government, the Plaza Agreement is undoubtedly one of the important factors of Japan's sustained economic depression.
Soros attacked Thai baht.
During the period of 1996, foreign short-term capital poured into Thailand's real estate and stock markets, resulting in obvious bubbles in the real estate and stock markets, and Thailand's assets were seriously overestimated. International financial tycoons predicted that the Thai baht would depreciate and began to look for profit opportunities in the wrong exchange rate pricing in the financial market.
1997 At the beginning of February, international investment institutions, mainly Soros, borrowed long-term Thai baht contracts from Thai banks for several months and then sold them on a large scale in the spot market. At that time, the Thai baht implemented a fixed exchange rate system linked to the US dollar. Soros's attack led to the rapid devaluation of the Thai baht, and repeatedly broke through the floating ceiling of the exchange rate set by the Central Bank of Thailand, causing market panic. In order to maintain the stability of the Thai baht, the Bank of Thailand bought the Thai baht. However, after a short battle, the Bank of Thailand, with a foreign exchange reserve of only $30 billion, announced that it had run out of ammunition and food. Finally, we had to give up the exchange rate policy of 14 of Thai baht pegged to the US dollar and implement a managed floating exchange rate system.
After the devaluation of the Thai baht, international investment institutions repurchased the Thai baht at a low price in US dollars to repay the Thai baht loan and interest. Soros's short selling has earned him billions of dollars. The devaluation of the Thai baht triggered a financial crisis, which dealt a heavy blow to Thailand's economic development and became the fuse of the Asian financial crisis.
The quantitative easing policy in the United States has led to an increase in dollar volatility.
5438+065438+June 2008+10/October, in response to the economic recession caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve announced the purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), marking the beginning of the first round of quantitative easing (QE). Introducing QE in the economic downturn can put liquidity into the market and increase the supply of funds, thus stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic development. The foreign exchange market reacted violently to QE, and the US dollar index (100.5567, -0.0 154, -0.02%) weakened obviously. When the first round of QE was announced, the US dollar index fell by 12% within one month, instead of the US currency strengthening. Because many countries hold a large proportion of their foreign exchange reserves, this unconventional quantitative easing policy leads to a decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds, which makes the foreign exchange assets of the corresponding debtor countries have a great risk of depreciation.
With the improvement of the economic situation in the United States, the unemployment rate is gradually approaching the normal level. The Federal Reserve has withdrawn from QE since February 20 13, and the market liquidity is gradually tightening, which will promote the appreciation of the US dollar.
Due to the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, the spillover effect of US domestic monetary policy has brought risks to other countries. At present, quite a few countries have taken strategic measures to avoid the risks brought by the US dollar, such as bypassing the US dollar through currency swap agreements and directly using bilateral currencies for settlement.
The foreign exchange market is a volatile market, so it is very likely to trigger a global financial crisis under speculative operation. In many historical lessons, countries have also strengthened their risk supervision on the foreign exchange market, and financial supervision and cooperation among countries are also strengthening day by day.