In the hot summer when natural gas supply is insufficient, the living conditions of people all over the world who can't afford electricity bills can be imagined. And this may not be a short-term problem. So today, Bian Xiao is here to sort out the knowledge about natural gas for everyone. Let's have a look!
The Logic of Determining Natural Gas Price
In fact, the underlying logic that determines the trend of international natural gas prices is very clear, that is, the change of supply and demand. We analyze it from the export end and the import end respectively.
Take LNG trade as an example. The countries on the list of exporting countries are all major energy powers in the world. According to the latest report of the US Energy Agency, as of the first half of this year, the United States has become the world's largest exporter of LNG, of which 765,438+0% of LNG is exported to Europe.
Australia is also one of the largest exporters of LNG in the world. Statista data shows that in 20021year, Australia exported about 108 1 100 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas, ranking first in the world. Qatar exports about 654.38+006.8 billion cubic meters, ranking second in the world; The United States ranks third in the world with 95 billion cubic meters of exports; Russia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria and Indonesia rank 4-8 respectively.
Of course, here we only calculate the export of LNG, that is, the sea route. A vast country like Russia mainly exports natural gas by land.
According to the data of us energy information administration, in 20021year, Russia exported about 250 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas and pipeline natural gas, accounting for 36% of its output of about 700 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Among them, 84% of Russian natural gas is exported through pipelines.
In the list of LNG importing countries, East Asian countries and European countries rank first.
In 20021year, Europe imported 3.41100 million cubic meters of natural gas, including 232.8 billion cubic meters of pipeline natural gas and 0.08 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas.
Take Russian natural gas as an example. In 20021year, European countries (especially Germany, Turkey, Italy, Belarus and France) were the largest importers of Russian natural gas, accounting for nearly 75% of Russia's total natural gas exports.
According to the data of the European Commission, in 20021year, about 40% of the natural gas supply in 27 EU countries came from Russia.
Even though the import volume in Europe is already high, the three countries in East Asia are still ahead of the rest of the world in importing natural gas.
According to Interface News, the top three importers of LNG in the world are China, Japan and South Korea. China has surpassed Japan, ranking first among countries. The demand in China has been rising for several years. 202 1, import growth 12.8%. Japan and South Korea followed closely, being the second and third largest importers respectively.
There is still a market in winter.
Based on various research reports, as long as the reasons for the above three price increases have not changed greatly, the relationship between supply and demand of natural gas in the global market is likely to become more tense this winter.
For importing countries such as Japan and South Korea, this may be compensated by raising prices, but for many relatively less wealthy countries, this winter may be affected by serious crises such as dying and blackouts.
(1) If the price of natural gas peaks again this winter, how much impact will it have on other energy prices? We know that coal and oil are also important raw materials for industrial production such as power generation, and there is a lot of room for imagination here.
(2) Will there continue to be a gap in global natural gas prices this winter, especially in Europe and East Asia, two major importers? Assuming that the price of natural gas in Europe is much higher than that in East Asia, will the competitiveness of related industrial chains in the two places change?
(3) Enterprises in Europe and East Asian countries are almost at the forefront of the world in terms of alternative energy sources and green industries for energy conservation and emission reduction. Will the sharp rise in natural gas prices promote the development of related enterprises and indirectly lead to the emergence of leading enterprises in related industries in these two regions?
Natural gas concept leading stock
Zhong Man petroleum (6036 19): the leading company, 20171.07, Zhong Man petroleum and natural gas group co., ltd. was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and successfully landed in the A-share capital market.
202 1, the net profit of China Petroleum was 6614.150,000, an increase of1/3.438+0% over the previous year.
On August 14, the stock price fell within 3 days1.17%; Since the beginning of this year, it has increased by 265,438+0.08%, and its P/E ratio is 65,438+065,438+00.77.
Guang 'an Aizhong (600979): the leading company, the only gas supply business organization in the gas supply business area approved by the competent construction department, engaged in natural gas sales, customer engineering installation, instrument installation and debugging. In the approved area.
In 20021,the company achieved a net profit of 209 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.62%, and the compound growth rate in recent five years was -6.89%. Earnings per share is 0. 17 yuan.
August 14 news, Guang 'an Aizhong's growth rate dropped by -9.85% this year, with a turnover of 48.6822 million yuan.
Longzhou shares (002682): leading company. In Tianjin, the company also invested and built a CNG natural gas processing plant in Dagang District of Tianjin through acquisition. The designed production capacity of this project can reach 300,000 cubic meters/day.
202 1, Longzhou shares achieved a net profit of1318190000, a year-on-year increase of10/.43%, and a compound growth of -64.67% in recent three years. Earnings per share is 0.02 yuan.
The latest news of the opening on August 14 shows that the share price of Longzhou shares fell by 8.07% within 7 days.