Weather factors have become an important factor in favor of wheat prices.

In May, the main wheat producing areas in the world generally suffered from high temperature and little rain, and the pressure on the key growth period of winter wheat crops increased significantly. Drought weather in the midwest of the United States, southern Russia, Argentina, Australia and other places reduced the sown area and yield per unit area of wheat.

At present, investors have basically reached a consensus on the downward adjustment of wheat production data in the world and major producing countries, and the main difference is only the reduction rate.

In view of the above situation, the monthly supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture in June 12 lowered the wheat production in the world and some major producing areas. Among them, the total wheat output in 20 12/ 13 is estimated to be 2.234 billion bushels, which is lower than the estimated value in May 1 1 ten thousand bushels. In 20 12/ 13, the initial inventory of American wheat decreased to 728 million bushels, a decrease of 40 million bushels compared with last month's forecast. At the end of 20 12/ 13, the inventory decreased to 694 million bushels, a decrease of 4 1 10,000 bushels compared with the forecast of last month.

COFCO Futures believes that although the ending inventory level of Meimai in the forecast year is obviously lower than the market expectation, the main reason is the decline in the initial inventory forecast level, rather than the sharp decrease in the output of new works expected by the market. The "Lido" component in the above report will gradually emerge.

As far as China is concerned, it has entered the peak period of winter wheat harvest. As of June 1 1, China has harvested 235 million mu of wheat, and the overall harvest progress has exceeded 65%. It is worth noting that according to the continuous low temperature and rainy weather in various parts of China in May, the wheat diseases are more serious than normal, so the prediction of the yield reduction of winter wheat in China production area by various analysis institutions is roughly 5-7 million tons, which is contrary to the previous view that the market generally expects to increase production.

From the transaction level, the seasonal low of wheat futures price has been basically determined. With the gradual confirmation of output loss, the improvement of export demand and the injection of liquidity in the euro zone, it is expected that CBOT wheat futures prices will fluctuate and rise. Moreover, China's disease will also become the focus of the market. And the minimum purchase price plan for wheat has been launched, which also provides the bottom support for wheat prices.

COFCO Futures pointed out that the economic growth slowed down and the central bank's interest rate cut was interpreted by the market as one of the new round of stimulus measures. Monetary policy tends to be loose, and the liquidity of financial markets is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to promoting the overall rebound of commodity prices.