1. 1 Research background and significance
1.2 Review and Evaluation of Research at Home and Abroad
Review on the study of pig cycle abroad
1.2.2 domestic literature review
1.2.3 Comments on the existing literature
1.3 research objectives and contents
1.3. 1 research objective
1.3.2 research content
1.4 research methods and analysis framework
1.4. 1 research methods
1.4.2 Analytical framework of this book
1.5 research innovation
Research content 1.5. 1
1.5.2 research methods
Some Notes on 1.6
1.6. 1 Data used in this book
1.6.2 Definition of research topics and fields
Chapter two: Theory and model of price fluctuation.
2. 1 Economic fluctuation and economic cycle
2. 1. 1 economic fluctuation
2. 1.2 economic cycle
2. 1.3 root causes of economic fluctuations
2. 1.4 the origin of the fluctuation of the live pig market in China
2.2 Price fluctuation theory
2.2. 1 Law of Value and Price Mechanism
2.2.2 Equilibrium price theory
elastic theory
2.3 Study the wave model
2.3. 1 internal conduction model
External influence model
cobweb model
2.4 Measurement of fluctuations
2.4. 1 speed method
2.4.2 trend decomposition method
2.4.3 Comparison of two methods
The third chapter analyzes the overall characteristics of pig production and price fluctuation.
3. 1 production fluctuation analysis
3. 1. 1 historical data description
3. 1.2 data adjustment
3. 1.3 Measurement of Swine Production Fluctuation
3.2 Price fluctuation analysis
3.2. 1 Periodic fluctuation law of hog price
3.2.2 Measurement of price fluctuation
3.3 Comparative analysis of price fluctuation and production fluctuation
3.4 Re-analysis of fluctuations in pig production
3.4. 1 The live pig price cycle leads to the production cycle.
3.4.2 Profit cycle is the internal cause of pig production cycle.
3.5 Summary
Chapter IV Analysis of Regional Characteristics of Pig Production and Price Fluctuation
4. 1 regional overview of pig price and output in China.
4. 1. 1 Overview of live pig prices in various regions
4. 1.2 Overview of pig production in various regions
4.2 Regional Characteristics of Fluctuation of Pig Production in China
4.2. 1 fluctuation characteristics of pig production in five regions
4.2.2 Characteristics of Output Fluctuation of Provinces in the Region
4.3 Analysis of Regional Characteristics of Swine Price Fluctuation in China
4.3. 1 Analysis of price fluctuation in China and five regions.
4.3.2 Analysis of the fluctuation of live pig prices in different provinces
4.4 Comparative analysis of output fluctuation and price fluctuation
4.5 Summary
Chapter 5: Analysis of the reasons and mechanism of the fluctuation of live pig price.
5. 1 Analysis of the causes of fluctuation under the internal conduction mechanism
5. 1. 1 pig growth cycle
5. 1.2 Supply behavior of producers
5. 1.3 production cost
5. 1.4 Profit distribution mechanism of industrial chain
5. 1.5 China pig production structure
5.2 Analysis of the causes of fluctuations under the external impact mechanism
5.2. 1 epidemic and other emergencies.
5.2.2 Impact of Macro-control
Substitute price
5.2.4 Income
5.2.5 Economic cycle
5.3 Summary
Chapter VI Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors of Swine Price Fluctuation
6. 1 Factors affecting the price of live pigs at the supply and demand level
6. 1. 1 Factors affecting supply
6. 1.2 Factors affecting demand
6. 1.3 factors affecting demand and supply at the same time
6.2 Establishment and analysis of empirical model
6.3 Case analysis of the sharp increase in the price of live pigs in 2007
6.3.1Analysis of the reasons for the sharp increase of live pig prices in 2007
6.3.2 Hidden problems behind the sharp rise of live pig prices
6.3.3 Impact of the sharp rise in the price of live pigs
6.4 Summary
Chapter 7: Research conclusions and suggestions.
7. 1 Basic conclusion
7.2 Countermeasures to alleviate the fluctuation of live pig prices in China
7.2. 1 Strengthen the research on the periodic fluctuation law of hog market price.
7.2.2 Strengthen macro-policy guidance.
7.2.3 Strengthen the government's macro-control mechanism.
7.2.4 Accelerate the improvement of the prevention and control system of pig diseases.
7.2.5 Improve the national macro monitoring and early warning system for pig production.
7.2.6 Accelerate the development of the "pig futures" market.
7.2.7 Accelerate the transformation of pig production mode.
7.2.8 Strengthen the construction of circulation links and channels.
7.2.9 Support and guide all localities to establish rural pig-raising cooperative organizations.
7.2. 10 Establish a post responsibility investigation mechanism.
7.3 Research Prospects
refer to