Recently, with the panic caused by the South African epidemic gradually dissipated, rubber futures ushered in a slight rebound. On the evening of 65438+February 13, Hujiao futures were sorted in a narrow range, and the main contract 2205 fluctuated in the range of 14650- 14735 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.03%.

Soochow Futures said that in June 5438+February, the southern production area of Thailand ushered in the peak production season, and the rainfall change in the production area had a direct impact on the tapping process and raw material output. This week, with the improvement of the weather in southern Thailand, the output of raw materials increased significantly, and the price of glue continued to fall, but it was still at a high level compared with the same period last year. Continue to pay attention to the weather conditions in the main producing areas in the later period. If abnormal rainfall or cold wave events occur, which will affect the output of natural rubber, it may provide a new round of speculation opportunities for the market and boost the price of rubber.

In terms of inventory, according to Kyushu Futures, as of the week of 65438+February 6, the sample inventory of natural rubber general trading warehouse in Qingdao area was 252,800 tons, a decrease of 0. 1 1 10,000 tons compared with the previous period, with a decrease of 0.43%, and the warehousing slowed down; The sample inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Bonded Zone 17 is 65,200 tons, which is 0. 1 10000 tons less than that in the previous period, with a decrease of 1.66%. In the short term, the absolute quantity of port inventory may remain at a low level.

Huatai Futures said that with the decrease of rain in the main producing areas of Thailand last week, the price of raw materials dropped significantly, which weakened the support of rubber cost last week. After the spread of the superposition period widened, the pressure of arbitrage made the futures price fall. This week, with the recovery of domestic macro atmosphere and the support of domestic raw material prices, rubber prices stopped falling and rebounded, and it is expected that prices will continue to rebound. However, due to the average demand performance, the pressure of finished product inventory in tire factory is accumulated, and the upward momentum is insufficient, so many orders are cautious.

Guo Xin Futures believes that tire manufacturers can start working now. However, at present, the overall shipment of manufacturers is not good, and the overall inventory is on the rise. At present, the cost of tires is still high. Under the pressure of cost, the price of tires is still mainly rising, but the market demand is not good, and the price increase is slowly transmitted to the terminal. The domestic Yunnan production area gradually entered the cutting stoppage period, and the pressure on the supply side decreased. Technically, RU2205 continues to oscillate in the range of 14000- 16000. Operation suggestion: concussion thinking operation.

Guotai Junan Futures pointed out that the short-term negative external market and fundamental interests gradually digested the pressure on rubber prices, and there was insufficient room for further downside. The market is skeptical about the impact of shipment delay, so it is necessary to continue to observe the arrival of goods in Hong Kong in June 5438+February and whether Qingdao can continue to maintain a small amount of inventory to determine whether the trend in the later period is bullish or bearish. Before it is relatively certain, the market is still optimistic about the medium and long-term trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation in Hong Kong and Qingdao. It is expected that the disk will return to the lower edge of the interval after experiencing the previous downturn, and the shock is strong.