It is estimated that the price of rapeseed in Jingmen will increase steadily in 2009, but it is difficult to go higher. According to the investigation, the open scale price is 1.7 yuan/kg. As of June 3rd, the purchase price of Hubei Riyue Oil Co., Ltd. has risen to 1.82 yuan/kg (there is no requirement for rapeseed quality, regardless of impurities and moisture), but there is limited room for further increase. Main reasons:
First of all, market factors make it difficult for prices to rise continuously.
It is understood that the oil and fat industry is greatly affected by the international market price, and is relatively less affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost and price of end products.
(1) Domestic and international market prices are upside down. It is worth noting that the game of rapeseed purchase price has now gone to the world. The price of imported rapeseed fell first and then rose this year, and the international soybean oil price was lower than the domestic market price. The early warning notice of soybean and rapeseed import issued by the Ministry of Commerce on April 24 showed that in the first four months, the cumulative import of soybean was about140,000 tons, an increase of nearly 40%, and rapeseed was about 900,000 tons, an increase of nearly 654.38+0.2 times, a record high. In March, the duty-paid price of Canadian rapeseed to China port was about 3,460 yuan per ton, which was 53 yuan lower than that of domestic rapeseed. The spread continued to narrow and was lower than the domestic market price for five consecutive months. FOB soybean oil in Gulf of Mexico is US$ 646 per ton, equivalent to RMB 44 12 yuan, which is lower than domestic soybean oil in Shandong 1986 yuan. The price after landing tax is 6235 yuan per ton, which is lower than the ex-factory price of local domestic soybean oil 183 yuan. In April, the price of imported rapeseed reversed the trend of being lower than domestic for five consecutive months and began to rise, while the price of imported soybean oil was still lower than domestic. The after-tax price of Canadian rapeseed is about 3689 yuan per ton, which is 289 yuan higher than that of domestic rapeseed. The FOB price of soybean oil in US Gulf of Mexico is US$ 769 per ton, equivalent to RMB 5,254, which is lower than domestic soybean oil in Shandong1.51.65438. The price after landing tax is 6588 yuan per ton, which is lower than the ex-factory price of local domestic soybean oil 176 yuan. Domestic oil companies are not enthusiastic about purchasing rapeseed and increase the processing capacity of imported oil.
(2) The impact of the world financial crisis. From the end of 2007 to June 2008, the international oil price soared, forcing the demand for biofuels to increase, and the rapeseed futures price climbed to a high of 1.6 million yuan/ton, which made the domestic rapeseed purchase jump from 1.75 yuan/kg in 2007 to an abnormal price of 2.75 yuan/kg. After July, the world financial crisis broke out and the price once fell to 65438. At present, the global economic situation has not bottomed out, international crude oil prices have fallen, biofuels have lost their dominant position, and the demand for alternative biofuels has declined. In addition, affected by the financial crisis, oil consumption will decline, and the shutdown and closure of enterprises and the return of migrant workers will greatly reduce the demand for oil. In addition, affected by the price collapse in 2008, enterprises were "trapped" by high-priced rapeseed, and industrial losses occurred in edible oil. More than 95% oil plants in our province suffered losses. For example, Xu Weiguo, general manager of Jingmen Huanxing Oil Company, said that last year, the company lost more than RMB 10 million in rapeseed processing. Therefore, oil middlemen and retailers will keep low inventory, which will affect the consumption decline of the whole market.
(3) The continuous low market price of terminal edible oil has a negative impact on the high purchase price of rapeseed. Recently, bulk rapeseed oil in Jingmen City was 4.32 yuan /500g, bulk salad oil 4 yuan was 500g, and Arowana blended oil was 54.9 yuan /5L, which decreased by 40.33%, 42.9% and 24. 1% respectively. This year, due to climatic factors, the oil content of rapeseed is generally 1-2 percentage points lower than that of 2008. Based on 3kg rapeseed oil 1 kg, the purchase price of rapeseed is about 1.7 yuan/kg.
(4) The purchase price has been basically consistent with the futures trading price. At the close of June 4, 2009, the international rapeseed oil futures trading price was about 7,900 yuan/ton, that is to say, if an enterprise buys rapeseed processing according to 1.85 yuan/kg, it basically belongs to capital preservation, and the profit space is limited, so the later purchase price has not increased much.
Second, national policies will support the market and prices will not drop sharply.
On May 3 1, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Purchase of Rapeseed in 2009, requesting to continue to purchase rapeseed in Hubei, Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, Guizhou, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Gansu, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Xinjiang and Tibet1. Among them, the acquisition period of winter sowing rapeseed production area is from June 1 day to the end of September 2009; The production area of spring-sown rape is from September 1 to the end of February 2009. For temporary reserves, the state did not specify the number of reserves, saying that it would implement unlimited acquisitions.
To sum up, the price of rapeseed is mainly affected by the international market price. On the one hand, the international rapeseed price is running at a low level, and the weak situation of domestic rapeseed market acquisition will continue; On the other hand, affected by the financial crisis, demand has greatly weakened. In addition, this year's rapeseed harvest, rapeseed purchase price downward pressure. Considering that the country increases farmers' income, with the support of the national purchasing and storage policy, it is expected that the market price of Jingmen rapeseed will not fall, but it is difficult to rise. The "roller coaster" price trend, which was high and low before last year, no longer exists. But it is unrealistic for farmers to reach the purchase price of 2.5 yuan/Jin in 2008.
Third, the benefit analysis of planting rape and wheat
The theoretical yield of rapeseed planted this year is146.73kg. If it is purchased at 1.82 yuan/kg, the income per mu will be 534. 1 yuan. The average input per mu (including labor) is 456.3 yuan, and the average net income per mu is 77.8 yuan. If the labor cost is excluded, it is 258.03 yuan (6.57 workers are invested, and each worker is given preferential treatment in 40 yuan).
The theoretical yield of wheat planting this year is 282.5 kg, which is purchased at 0.83 yuan/kg. The benefit per mu is 468.95 yuan, the average input per mu (including labor) is 378.38 yuan, and the average net income per mu is 90.57 yuan. If the labor cost is excluded (3.4 workers are invested, the discount for each worker is 465,438 yuan +0.69 yuan).
In 2009, the average output value of rapeseed per mu was 65.2 yuan more than that of wheat. If the labor cost is not included, the average net income per mu is higher than that of wheat 1 16.8 1 yuan.
Fourth, we should vigorously promote the development of rapeseed production.
First, planting rape can improve soil fertility, and wheat needs a lot of fertilizer and consumes a lot of soil fertility. Second, rape ripens earlier than wheat, which is beneficial to the sowing of the next crop, especially to the early planting of mid-season rice to obtain high yield. Third, promoting order production and building a double-low rapeseed brand can appropriately increase the purchase price of rapeseed. Fourth, vigorously promote the "one dish and three uses" of rapeseed to improve the comparative benefits of rapeseed.