Wheat has been rising slightly since the rebound, which is also expected, so needless to say, the focus is still corn.
Many people wonder: What happened to corn?
As far as the current situation is concerned, I think the high probability of corn falling is still caused by emotions.
First of all, the supply and demand level has been weak, but this weakness is not just weak, it has been a long time.
It has been weak and volatile before, why did it suddenly start to fall continuously? It doesn't make sense.
Secondly, it is rainy in the north. According to the past practice, the weather affects the quantity of corn, but even if it rains, the quantity of corn to trucks has not decreased, which shows that traders are anxious to ship.
What's the hurry?
Looking back carefully, it was after the corn price fell below the 1.4 yuan/kg mark that the market sentiment was somewhat panicked.
Because it was really unexpected for the market to fall below this price, the market was optimistic about the follow-up corn trend, waiting for the corn to break through 1.5 yuan/kg again, but the result fell below 1.4 yuan, which was really "sad".
Third, the recent decline in international food prices across the board has also had a certain impact on market sentiment.
Although the grain market in China is relatively independent and limited by the fluctuation of the international grain market, there is not much emotional transmission.
There are at least three bad news in the international grain market recently:
First of all, with the sharp interest rate increase of major economies in the world, the commodity market has experienced considerable turmoil.
Coupled with the peak of inflation, the expectation of economic recession has risen, and global commodity prices have fallen across the board, including food.
Second, Russian and Ukrainian cereals are expected to return to the global market.
Thanks to the efforts of the United Nations and other parties, the four-party negotiations composed of the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine finally came to an end, and relevant agreements were signed to jointly guarantee the grain export transportation of Russia and Ukraine.
This news really has a great influence. After all, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, food prices soared sharply, one of which was based on concerns that Russian-Ukrainian food exports were blocked. Now this worry is easing. According to the logic that the impact of news is faster than the real impact, global food prices continue to fall.
This sentiment is also transmitted to China. The decline in international food prices means that imported food is cheaper, which means that imported food may increase, which means that it will have a certain impact on corn.
Third, many countries have reported bumper harvests.
For example, Brazil's second season corn harvest is in sight. Although the planting area of corn in the United States has decreased, it is much higher than the estimate in March, which also eased everyone's concerns about corn.
The combination of these factors, coupled with the withdrawal of some funds from the futures market, made the futures begin to fall, and the spot market sentiment collapsed.
Then, with the continuous decline of corn, is it time to "shoot"? Who should "shoot" again?
Is it time for downstream enterprises to "shoot"?
According to logical analysis, who is most beneficial to the fall of corn price? It is definitely not the main grain holder in the construction of high warehouses, that is, downstream deep processing and feed enterprises.
But at present, it seems that these two downstream companies have not "shot". Why?
First of all, deep processing is in the traditional maintenance peak season, and the demand is not great. In addition, there were many stocks before, and more importantly, the market has a characteristic, which is often to buy up and not buy down. The more it falls, the stronger the buyer's wait-and-see mood, so deep processing is still in sight.
Secondly, what did the feed enterprises do? Didn't the price of pigs go up? Demand should also rise.
The price of pigs has indeed gone up, and the enthusiasm for filling the bar is also improving. However, after all, the country has made it clear that the determination to stabilize pig prices is clear, and no one will bet on this city. Therefore, the breeding benefits brought by the increase in pig prices have not yet appeared.
But then again, we have analyzed before that there is really little room for corn to fall, which means that corn is close to the bottom. If the downstream enterprises do not "shoot", then the policy may "shoot".
According to the latest news, Jilin Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. is the first to start the acquisition by rotation. Although the number of targets is not very large, it is still a small signal. In addition, this year's rotation task is not small, and it can be started in advance if necessary.
Secondly, we have repeatedly stressed that the main purpose of this year's policy is to "ensure supply and stabilize prices." The significance of stabilizing prices is not only to prevent prices from rising too fast and too sharply, but also to prevent prices from falling too much, which is more sensitive when it comes to food.
Because food is related to the national economy and people's livelihood on the one hand, and the vital interests of hundreds of millions of farmers on the other, the interests of grain farmers must be guaranteed after the development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers has just entered a new era.
Therefore, although there is no good news about corn at present, if it continues to fall like this, the policy level is likely to be "shot".
For more information, welcome to collect the New Concept of Agriculture and learn about the new development of agriculture, countryside and farmers in the new era.