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Margin trading and T+0 track system will be replaced by agricultural tools that collect money again.

On May 15, I was glad to see that the two major stock exchanges failed to draw up new trading rules of the stock exchanges, so as to reserve space for margin trading and T+0 trading. The first reason is that China Stock Exchange is expected to enter the market in early trading, and the second reason is that the author shouted for the first time in March 1 the year before last that "margin trading must go with T+0 trading". Later, the author proposed to introduce corresponding supporting measures. At first, I saw the last hope, but how does this system work? Will it deform? We still have to look at each other, but we hope that the China stock market will not continue to distort some market-oriented institutional rules in the future, and that the market-oriented system will not become a deformed tool for collecting money.

Attached to the following article

Margin trading must go hand in hand with T+0-.

■ Pay attention to the securities credit trading system (1)

■ Su Peike originated from China Economic Times (2006.3. 1).

Since the symposium on margin financing and securities lending held by China Securities Association in Beijing on February 22, 2006, the climax of discussion on margin financing and securities lending in the domestic standardized market is extremely low. Coupled with the prestige news that "the relevant rules of margin financing and securities lending business are being formulated at present", people feel that margin financing and securities lending are about to set sail and securities credit trading is just around the corner. Is this a disaster for the market and investors? Is it a blessing?

"Margin trading", also known as "securities credit trading", includes securities companies' margin trading with investors and financial institutions' margin trading with securities companies. In short, financing means borrowing money to buy securities; And securities lending means selling securities, repaying them in the future, and shorting them in the name of cash.

If the starting point of designing this kind of securities credit transaction with short selling mechanism is to connect with the international market, to make the market improve the effectiveness of financial resource allocation, to provide a smooth investment and financing channel, to act as an equalizer for stock price stability, and to invent the value of the market, then its arrival may not be a disaster. However, if the design purpose is completely opposite to this, it is not necessarily a blessing if it is only to activate the depressed market by multiplying the trading volume of margin financing and securities lending, so as to save the troubled brokers, open up a new profit model for margin financing and securities lending brokers, or provide "double insurance" for the institutional loopholes in the share-trading reform. (The first guarantee in the "single guarantee" is that after the internationalization of A shares, non-tradable shares will become tradable shares and undertake the obligation of long-term lock-in of equity; The second insurance is to use the financing in margin financing to undertake "locking, climbing" and "securities lending", and double access to the source stocks that are not smooth after "locking and climbing". )

If we want to build an efficient and real domestic market, if we can only do more unilaterally, there is no short-selling machine, there is no securities credit transaction, and there is no two-way hedging mechanism such as stock index futures and options to avoid risks, our delusion of building an international market will never be realized, just like a "one-legged" person who wants to win the 100-meter hurdle, the chance of realizing his fantasy is extremely small. At present, China's securities market is only a "one-legged" market, and the depressed market format has made investors generally lose confidence. Now it is necessary to graft another "leg" through margin financing and securities lending. If the starting point is to be more stable in the future, it may be a blessing to the market. However, if the purpose is to enliven the market atmosphere and let brokers earn more money, the logic of "chasing profits and circling money" is a disaster. The purpose is to make investors pay a higher price, use the "licking the blood" margin to conduct daily trading, and open up a new profit model for brokers, which is despicable and not worth promoting.

In this "symposium on margin financing and securities lending business", the dispute over margin financing and securities lending access is even more steaming. In 2008, some people suggested that securities credit transactions should be conducted in a "characteristic" way based on the current situation of China stock market, while others suggested that "financing" should be used as a pilot to promote "securities lending", so as to turn securities credit transactions of margin financing and securities lending into a "one-legged" walk. I think that if this "suggestion" is followed, the securities credit transaction will be carried out.

China cannot engage in stock index futures, margin financing and securities lending, financial derivatives, etc. And can't make "China characteristics". The author once made a specific explanation in the article "Stock index futures can no longer play" China characteristics ". Because, while stepping up the reform of China's financial market, we should also step up the innovation of financial derivatives, actively learn from the mature experience and lessons of foreign countries, and use the principles and methods of superstition and "three fairness" to rescue China's state-owned assets and profit market from the quagmire. At this juncture, we must not continue to design a set of so-called "special" products suitable for the current China stock market to fool the people and make a fortune. Waiting for several years has become another historical burden of China Ziyuan market. We hope that such mistakes will not be repeated in stock index futures, margin trading and financial derivatives.

Besides, the current stock market in China is a very imperfect market. If we add a "unique innovation" to this "imperfection", the future lifeblood of China stock market can be imagined.

Only a single financing and post-securities lending can really enliven the investment atmosphere of the market, but it will break through the relationship between supply and demand in the market, and the market will be full of credit transactions, which will expand the market danger innocently. If margin financing and securities lending come at the same time, the two-way coordination effect of its price stabilizer will be realized, which requires that the "financing" pilot can not be simply carried out.

For the short-selling mechanism and hedging function of stock index futures in margin financing and securities lending, the author has written for a long time, hoping that he will come soon. However, the purpose of analyzing the fortune of margin financing and securities lending this time is not to oppose it, but to hope that it will be more market-oriented, more transparent, more international, and less "circling money" and "features".

At the same time, the author suggests that the formulation of relevant rules of margin trading and securities lending business must be timely, solemn and market-oriented, and it is not possible to blindly "characterize" without any worries.

First of all, margin trading should go hand in hand with T+0 trading. If margin trading is carried out according to T+ 1, there will be serious institutional defects.

When financial derivatives such as margin trading and stock index futures are not mentioned, the author of T+0 trading has always opposed it, because without these tools, T+0 will only lose its role as a tool for brokers to earn and handle fees, which will intensify market speculation. It is suggested to go with margin financing and securities lending, mainly to supplement the system loopholes of margin financing and securities lending under T+ 1 transaction.

Because the risk of securities credit trading in margin financing and securities lending is greater than abnormal trading, the credit trading in margin financing and securities lending may increase the transaction quality and risk to 10 times of the margin. If trading continues according to T+ 1, investors may double the daily limit of 10% in the case of short selling, but if the daily limit of 10%, investors may lose all the margin within one day, so there is no hard problem of closing positions. However, there are some problems in financing. For example, if a stock rises by 65,438+00% a day, investors may double. However, if the stock falls, investors may lose all their money and leave the market, while continuing to increase the margin or inherit debts. What's important is that investors have no choice but to sell and hold passively under the T+ 1 trading system. If the stock continues to fall the next day, the daily limit can't be opened and no one buys it, and the financing institution can't close its position, it will present an abnormal scene of investors shorting the financing institution, and it will also lock the financing institution. Therefore, the T+ 1 trading system has a big loophole in the case of margin trading, and avoiding this risk can only be achieved through T+0 trading, otherwise no matter how beautiful the stock is, it cannot guarantee a sudden and continuous down limit.

In fact, the games of buying more and selling short, such as margin trading and T+0 trading system, have already started in the "black market of securities" in previous years. This set of rules of the game makes these investors who participate in the "black market of securities" understand that the reason why the "black market of securities" is abhorrent is mainly because it has no real securities as a guarantee, but only imitates transactions, allowing investment companies to play games with investors who participate in the "black market" transactions, and the losses of investors are paid by private companies. The rules are similar, but the essence is completely different. Therefore, after margin trading and T+0 trading in China stock market, investors must guard against risks and seek truth from facts. At the same time, regulators should strengthen supervision and prevent institutions from manipulating stock prices and bloodbath shareholders.

Secondly, the author puts forward that margin financing and securities lending must be transparent to prevent brokers from misappropriating customers' deposits and stocks (moving securities).

In recent years, the weakness of China stock market not only led to the collapse of entrusted wealth management and proprietary trading of securities firms, but also exposed the misappropriation of customers' security funds, all of which were used for "financing". We know that some brokers have been secretly "financing" for a long time, but most of these funds are misappropriated from customers' deposits. When the margin financing and securities lending is opened, it is necessary to prevent the brokers from "misappropriating". At the same time, it is necessary to separate the customer's securities deposit from the securities business as soon as possible, hand it over to the bank for governance, and hand it over to the third-party professional "settlement company" for fair settlement, so as to ensure the efficiency and transparency of margin financing and securities lending under the T+0 system.

If we continue to confuse the deposit and settlement functions with securities firms, its chaos and "misappropriation" will be inevitable. Because the current situation of the brokerage itself is "clay idol crossing the river", how can it be possible to have its own funds and idle funds to "finance" customers? Therefore, the necessary separation is the gospel of investors, otherwise there will be a bigger "misappropriation" black hole.

In addition, the formulation of the rules of the margin trading game must be one-sided and steady. It is both an opportunity and a provocation for the market, and a coexistence of risks and benefits for investors. Only under the transparent and honest market environment and fair system deployment can investors dare to participate, otherwise, the farther away they are, the stronger their dependence will be.