First, the interest rate in microeconomics refers to the risk-free interest rate, which is about equal to the interest rate of national debt. Generally recognized interest rate of national debt. There are different opinions about the interest rate adjusted by the central bank. Adjusting the deposit and loan interest rate is different from adjusting the deposit reserve interest rate. Adjusting the deposit and loan interest rate is to adjust the stock of money and silver in the market, and raising the deposit and loan interest rate is the embodiment of absorbing deposits and lending less. The adjustment is the whole. Adjusting the deposit reserve interest rate means adjusting the bank's own money and silver stock. The deposit reserve is similar to the deposits deposited by commercial banks in the central bank. After the adjustment, the amount of money and silver in commercial banks will change, and then directly adjust the amount of money and silver in the market. It's not going well. I hope you can understand. In fact, this thing is easy to understand.
Second, the expression of real interest rate is only an approximate expression. Because the money we have is low in reality, we think the specific formula r=i-e/ 1 e, and the expected inflation rate on the right side of the formula is unknown, although the nominal interest rate can be replaced by the bank loan interest rate as the landlord said. According to irving fisher, the basic interest rate is essentially determined by people's impatience. The more impatient people are, the higher the essential interest rate is. However, defects are impossible to observe. I think another indicator to measure the basic interest rate is the basic growth rate of the economic aggregate. Simply put, it is the GDP growth rate MINUS the inflation rate. In fact, expectations can also be obtained.
Third, modern western economists have found several ways to expect. One is the cobweb model that takes the actual value of the current period as the expected value of the next period, the other is adaptive expectations, which is based on a weighted uniformity of the previous period and the current period, and the last is the top rational expectation.
Fourthly, implied volatility is an important index of options, which is derived from a series of complicated formulas. It is similar to the price-earnings ratio of stocks, and is more commonly understood as the emotional index of options buyers and sellers, reflecting the relationship between supply and demand and the intensity of people buying and selling options contracts. If other conditions (such as time, target price, exercise price, interest rate, etc. ) unchanged, if the buyer's will exceeds the seller's will, the premium will rise and the volatility will rise.
Volatility is a trading volume, which is calculated according to the price and does not include expectations. This expectation is given by people and can only reflect the relationship between supply and demand. Generally speaking, if everyone is buying, the volatility will definitely rise. If everyone is profiting from call options, the volatility will generally decline, and it will be obvious on the way down. Option price is the cause and volatility is the result, and the level of volatility has a great relationship with the mood of option investors. Fluctuation is a double-edged sword, which helps to rise and fall. It is the main indicator of price fluctuation after the target, and it is also a different indicator of options relative to stocks, futures and futures.