In order to fight the epidemic, the relevant administrative regions urgently adopted a series of measures, such as closing the city, stopping public transportation and closing public commercial facilities. The people also took out the most effective means to stop the spread of the epidemic-self-isolation and spending the New Year at home. It can be predicted that the epidemic will have a great impact on the "tertiary industry" in China, which belongs to the "secondary industry"? Our automobile market will undoubtedly be affected by this.
Will China passenger car market, which has experienced continuous negative growth of 20 18 and 20 19, fall into a deeper abyss in 2020? As an autobot, how can we fight our way out in a worse 2020?
Sleepy: Compared with SARS, the epidemic situation in COVID-19 is very different, which has a greater impact on the automobile market.
Speaking of the impact of the epidemic on the automobile market, people will naturally think of SARS in 2003.
Looking back at the performance of the automobile market at that time, the automobile sales in 2003 continued the high growth trend in 2002, and even rebounded rapidly within a few months after the outbreak, indicating that the epidemic did not hinder the development of the automobile market in China at that time.
Of course, this time is different, and it can't be as simple as carving a boat for a sword. It is more valuable to combine virus differences, national conditions differences and economic differences.
1.？ The influence cycle of "COVID-19" is similar to that of SARS, but its influence scope is wider.
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 epidemic as an "international health emergency" on June 30th, 65438, and the general validity period is three months. Combined with the previous SARS experience, it is preliminarily judged that the impact of the epidemic will be mainly concentrated in the first four months of this year. On the other hand, the current domestic transportation convenience is far better than that of that year, and the outbreak period coincides with the peak of Spring Festival travel rush. Prior to this, only six provinces in China had more than1000 people infected with SARS, but at present, there are as many as 19 provinces in COVID-19 with more than1000 people infected with SARS (it may increase), and the impact of this epidemic has spread to all provinces, cities and regions in China.
2.？ Social information is highly transparent and people's awareness of prevention is improved.
There was no "smart phone" in 2003. Looking back, SARS may still be severe, but the national nervousness brought by "COVID-19" did not exist at that time. Nowadays, information technology has greatly improved people's general awareness of epidemic prevention. The spontaneity of staying at home in every household in the country has a far greater impact on business than in that year, and the passenger flow will inevitably drop sharply in a certain period of time.
3.？ The growth rate of the national economy is not as good as that of that year, and the macro economy is under pressure.
The year 2003 coincided with the bonus of China's entry into WTO, and both the supply and demand sides made efforts at the same time. The rapid economic growth masked the short-term economic losses caused by SARS. However, in 2020, the proportion of the tertiary industry in China's economy (more than 50%) has surpassed that of the secondary industry, and the overall economy is bound to be dragged down even more than that of that year; On the other hand, China's economy has entered an adjustment period of slowing GDP growth, and now it is disturbed by Sino-US trade issues, and the "COVID-19" has set off a flattening storm. In order to save the economy and stimulate consumption, the country will have a high probability to introduce corresponding policies in the second half of the year to stimulate economic recovery.
Based on the above situation, and according to the development characteristics of China passenger car market, Wilson thinks that "opening low and going high, rebounding in the third quarter" has the opportunity to become the main tone of China passenger car market in 2020.
1.？ The first half of 2020 may face a cliff-like decline.
From the terminal point of view, with the outbreak of the epidemic on June 20, 65438 and the opening of the peak holiday in Spring Festival travel rush, the sales volume of the automobile market has been frozen, and there is almost no passenger flow in the dealerships around the country. In addition, most enterprises postponed to February 10, and the opening cycle of the auto market in February was only 18 days. Under the "internal troubles and foreign invasion", it is difficult for sales to improve.
It is optimistic that the epidemic will be well controlled in March and April, but before the official announcement of "lifting the ban", people's concern and caution about the epidemic will not be reduced, and consumer psychology will hardly reach the normal level.
For manufacturers, most mainstream car companies have announced that they will postpone their work. In addition, the production suspension period overlaps with the Spring Festival holiday, and the supply rhythm of spare parts is disrupted, which has a certain impact on production capacity and delivery in the short term.
Therefore, Wilson currently predicts that the sales volume in the first quarter of 2020 is likely to drop by more than 50% year-on-year; In April of the second quarter, it was still affected by the epidemic, and the year-on-year decline was also above 10%.
2.？ It is still possible to restore the expected annual sales volume at dawn after dark or in the second half of the year.
The setback of the automobile market in the first half of 2020 caused by the epidemic will become a high probability event. If we want to restore the expected sales volume in 2020, starting from the market demand, enterprises may still have the opportunity to grasp the pace of adjustment. (Note: In 20 19, Wilson predicted that the sales volume of passenger cars in 2020 would be 20.69 million, down by -2.9% year-on-year, and the forecast value for the whole year will be adjusted synchronously according to the further development of the epidemic. )
Positive impact: First of all, the epidemic mainly affects the normal release of automobile demand in the first and second quarters, so the suppressed demand in the first and second quarters will be delayed until the third quarter, and the demand has not disappeared. Secondly, for safety reasons, the outbreak of the epidemic will arouse consumers' desire to travel privately, thus stimulating new demand. Furthermore, if the government introduces economic stimulus policies, it will certainly eliminate the negative impact of the overall consumption decline after the epidemic to a certain extent.
Negative impact: At present, the number of cars owned by 100 households in China has exceeded 50%, and this part of consumers mainly buy cars through allocation and replacement. Due to the economic downturn caused by the epidemic, they may delay the addition and replacement because of consumer confidence, which will have a certain impact on luxury brands and high-end models.
Solution: The key to the auto market war is to cultivate "internal strength".
The impact of the epidemic on China auto market is self-evident. How to take positive measures to meet the challenge, how to adjust the strategy and change the style of play in a special period is a problem worthy of our consideration.
"Welcome guests" in internal skill cheats;
During the "COVID-19" period, the biggest problem faced by automobile sales was that users didn't go to 4S stores, so it was quite inappropriate to carry out gathering activities. Therefore, it became a key issue to contact potential users and realize sales transformation. Wilson believes that on the one hand, enterprises can consider using the Internet sales model with strong promotional activities to promote users to the store, such as AR car watching, online red envelope lottery and so on. In addition, it is also the way to break the ice in a special period to mine the base users through big data insight, first determine the potential car owners who have the opportunity to increase redemption, and then implement targeted precision marketing.
Internal skill cheats "guarantee for supply";
The epidemic caused supply stall in the first and second quarters, mainly in the Central Plains. At a time when all aspects of the supply chain are being tested, manufacturers urgently need to adjust their capacity planning and supply strategies in time to ensure the capacity supply during the rebound period of market demand in the second half of the year and avoid the embarrassing situation of poor supply in the second half. Therefore, making a flexible capacity plan will become a key issue for manufacturers in the short term.
Internal skill cheats "new energy";
The epidemic will stimulate new demand for private travel, which is mainly based on security considerations. For these first-time buyers who are mostly economically sensitive, the demand will be concentrated on entry-level models, especially in cities with restricted purchases (mostly crowded cities). Those consumers who have the ability to spend but lack the willingness to spend are likely to explode the demand for new energy vehicles in a short time.
"grasping money" in internal skill cheats;
After the epidemic, the economy was blocked. Although the introduction of national policies can alleviate people's anxiety about future economic development, attractive financial products are undoubtedly a good way to solve consumers' urgent need for money and worries about using money. At present, some enterprises have launched targeted financial solutions to attract users to buy cars after the outbreak. For example, a joint venture brand launched a down payment 15%, with low interest for 3-5 years, a down payment of 40% and zero interest for 2 years; A new power brand launched a down payment of 15%, with interest of 2.99% in three years and 3.49% in five years. These measures can be regarded as a positive response under the influence of the epidemic.
At present, the national "novel coronavirus" campaign is still going on, and the cold war in China automobile market in 2020 has just begun. I hope that "COVID-19" will be controlled and the automobile market will be improved. Wilson will work hand in hand with you to overcome the difficulties.
(Note: This article was originally written by Guangzhou Wilson Information Technology Co., Ltd., please indicate the source if you need to quote; Please contact us for further in-depth interview. )
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.