2008 10
Since September, the global economy has been weak, the demand side of metals has also deteriorated rapidly, the international metal price has continued to fall sharply, and the inventory of non-ferrous metal enterprises has been high.
Due to the emergence of a large number of divestments, investment opportunities of related companies have been born. Due to 2008
The basis of annual report accrual is reference 12.
Month 3 1
Daily product prices, so once product prices rose sharply in the first quarter of 2009, some companies 1
Quarterly results will benefit from the reversal of inventory depreciation.
In June 5438+ 10, the LMEX metal price index rose by 3.3% month-on-month, which was the first month after three consecutive months of month-on-month decline. Among them, lead and nickel increased the most, reaching19%; Followed by copper and zinc, which increased by 4.5% and 8.7% respectively. However, the price of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad has deviated. The international aluminum price decreased by 5.7% month-on-month, while the domestic aluminum price increased by 1 1.2%.
However, the accrual effect of companies may not be fully reflected in the fourth quarter of 2008, and it is expected that a considerable number of companies will be in 2009.
In the first half of 2008, it was still on the verge of loss.
However, the short-term rebound in prices is difficult to cover up the increasing inventory of non-ferrous industries. Before economic activities and demand turn stronger, the increasing inventory will once again put pressure on prices.
In fact, the inventory of non-ferrous metals industry can be divided into several categories, such as manufacturers, consumers and exchange inventory. The increase in exchange inventory is converted from the manufacturer's inventory. Compared with the steel industry, the pressure of non-ferrous metal industry to go to stock is less, because there is a futures market in non-ferrous metal industry. Over the past year, while the prices of various non-ferrous metals have fallen sharply, gold has been less affected by the financial crisis and economic crisis, and its price is relatively stable. The international gold price continued to maintain a steady upward trend in June 5438+ 10, up 4.8% from the previous month.
According to the research report, the gold price may exceed 1200 in the future.
Dollar/ounce. There are four reasons: with the deepening of the financial crisis, people's requirements for asset allocation and security have increased, and the value-preserving function of gold has emerged; With the reconstruction of the world monetary system, the era of credit dollar gradually disintegrated; The dollar will depreciate for a long time; The monetary attribute of goods will be stimulated.
However, some analysts have different views on this. An analyst who asked not to be named said that it is still difficult to judge the future price trend of gold, mainly because gold is different from ordinary non-ferrous metals and it is difficult to analyze it with the relationship between supply and demand.
"Traditionally, gold has the functions of hedging and fighting inflation. In the case of economic downturn, the function of avoiding risks will be strengthened, but this function will be weakened as the expectation of economic bottoming becomes more and more clear. The main feature of the first half of this year will be the coexistence of economic downturn and deflation. In the second half of this year, the bottom of the economy and inflation coexist, and the two major factors affecting gold will change. " This man believes. Therefore, we should not be too optimistic about the trend of gold prices.