So what caused the "diesel shortage"? Zhang Sheng, a futures analyst, pointed out that there are six reasons for the "diesel shortage" in some areas. First, the main reason of "diesel shortage" is "sudden power failure". All localities are facing the "big test" of energy conservation and emission reduction, and some areas have begun to implement large-scale power rationing to achieve the goal of energy conservation and consumption reduction. Enterprises do not hesitate to buy diesel generators to ensure machine operation, saving electricity but consuming oil. On the one hand, the demand for diesel has risen sharply, on the other hand, some refineries have also reduced production due to power outages, resulting in tight diesel prices. Shenyang, on the other hand, is not a "power-limited" area, and its impact is relatively small.
Second, the relationship between supply and demand. In July, August and September, some domestic refineries were overhauled on a large scale, which reduced the supply. In the past 92 months, the domestic autumn harvest, fishing and agricultural use have greatly increased the consumption of diesel. This makes the growth rate of diesel supply fail to keep up with the growth rate of demand in the last two months.
Third, "chemicals grab diesel." In the process of crude oil refining, there are a series of chemical products besides gasoline and diesel oil. Therefore, the demand for chemical products and diesel production is a "trade-off" relationship. Due to the strong economic recovery, the price of chemicals is soaring. Therefore, enterprises that produce gasoline and diesel as well as chemicals are likely to devote part of their energy to chemical products with rapidly rising prices, and their enthusiasm for producing diesel may not be very high.
Fourth, "private speculation." Because of the phenomenon of diesel "wholesale and retail upside down". It is not excluded that private wholesalers buy diesel products at high prices through relationships, resulting in a tight retail market.
For the phenomenon of diesel shortage in many places, some analysts believe that it is closely related to the consumption cycle in some places. For example, in the third quarter of Zhejiang Province, especially at the end of the year, the consumption of diesel oil will be slightly less than that in the first half of the year, because the fishing season in Zhejiang ended in September, and the demand for coastal oil increased; In addition, Jinhua and other manufacturing-oriented areas have entered the peak season of foreign production orders, and the consumption of these production enterprises has driven the consumption of some refined oil products, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand of diesel. In fact, it is a phenomenon that coastal areas enter the fishing moratorium in the second half of the year and production enterprises enter the peak season of foreign production orders. This year is not the only exception, so it is not objective to attribute the recent diesel shortage to the consumption cycle in some places. In addition, although some coastal provinces and cities have recently started to cut off electricity in order to achieve energy-saving goals, the demand for diesel power generation in various places is prominent, and the demand for diesel for power generation has surged. Under the market economy, there will only be a backlog of unsold goods, and consumers and enterprises will rarely worry about not buying goods and raw materials. Therefore, under normal market economy conditions, it is difficult to cause a shortage of diesel.
Fifth, the cost increased and the refinery stopped production.
The insiders believe that insufficient supply should be the main reason for the diesel shortage.
According to the industry, large-scale overhaul occurred in domestic refineries from August to September, resulting in a sharp drop in output. International oil prices continue to fluctuate at a high level, and local refineries have increased refining costs, reduced profits, reduced production enthusiasm, and reduced production or even stopped production.
Ru, deputy general manager of PetroChina East China Company, said that the upside-down wholesale and retail led some small gas stations to stop supplying diesel. This further aggravates the shortage of diesel oil supply.
By the end of September, the cumulative inventory of refined oil in Zhejiang was 357,000 tons, down 34.5% year-on-year, of which the inventory of diesel oil decreased by 49. 1%. Some time ago, typhoons and cold air followed, which also affected the docking of oil tankers and the transit of oil resources.
Lingyun, director of the Office of Coordination Meeting of Coal, Electricity and Oil Transportation in Zhejiang Province, believes that the rapid economic recovery has driven the oil consumption of enterprises in production, transportation, trade and logistics to continue to rise; Near the end of the year, entering the peak season of infrastructure construction, oil consumption of industrial and mining enterprises increased; The end of the fishing ban, the recovery of fishery oil demand in coastal areas, the arrival of autumn harvest and the increase of agricultural machinery oil are all important reasons for the shortage of diesel oil.
Sixth, the consumption of diesel in enterprises has soared.
According to the 11th Five-Year Plan, China's energy consumption per unit GDP must be reduced by 20% in five years. In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction by the end of this year, many places have introduced power restriction policies. Since September, Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces have imposed mandatory power cuts on some enterprises.
The person in charge of an agricultural product deep processing export enterprise said that the actual monthly electricity consumption of the enterprise was 654.38+0.5 million kWh, but the local electricity consumption index was only 60,000 kWh per month. As a last resort, he spent 0.2 million/200 thousand on a diesel generator to ensure the production of electricity.
Jiang Xiufei, manager of Linhai Branch of China Petrochemical Company, also said in an interview that the diesel consumption in Linhai in June this year increased by 19% compared with that in September. "Affected by energy conservation and emission reduction, some enterprises cut off electricity, and in order not to delay production, they all generate electricity by themselves", which is the primary reason for the sharp increase in diesel consumption.
Zhu, manager of the commercial customer department of Jiaxing Branch of Sinopec, estimates that the diesel oil used by enterprises in Jiaxing alone for self-provided power generation will increase by thousands of tons every month. World Wide Web