From June 65438 to June 0997, a financial crisis broke out in Asia, and the development process of this crisis was very complicated. By the end of 1998, it can be roughly divided into three stages: June 1997 to February12; 1998 1 month to1998 July; 1998 July to the end of the year.

The first stage: 65438+1July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, which triggered a financial storm sweeping Southeast Asia. On the same day, the exchange rate of Thai baht against the US dollar fell by 17%, and financial markets such as foreign exchange were in chaos. Under the influence of the fluctuation of Thai baht, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit have become the targets of international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend Ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has been strong, has also been hit. Although Indonesia is the latest country to be "infected", it is the most seriously affected. 10 year 10 in late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, an international financial center, aiming at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. Taiwan Province authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the new Taiwan dollar, depreciating by 3.46% a day, which increased the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stock markets. 65438+1On October 23rd, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell121.47 points; On the 28th, it fell 162 1.80 points, falling below the 9000 mark. Faced with fierce attacks from international financial speculators, the Hong Kong SAR Government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to 10000. Then, 1 1 in mid-June, a financial storm broke out in South Korea in East Asia. 17 In June, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar fell to a record 1 008: 1. 2 1, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund, which temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on 65438+February 13, the exchange rate of Korean won against the US dollar fell to 1 737.60: 1. The Korean won crisis has also hit the Japanese financial industry, which has invested heavily in South Korea. 1997 a series of Japanese banks and securities companies went bankrupt in the second half of the year. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial crisis evolved into the Asian financial crisis.

The second stage: 1998, Indonesia's financial turmoil resumed. In the face of the worst economic recession in history, the prescription prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 1 1, the Indonesian government announced the implementation of the linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was unanimously opposed by the International Monetary Fund, the United States and Western Europe. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw its aid to Indonesia. Indonesia is in a political and economic crisis. On February 6/kloc-0, the exchange rate of the Indonesian rupiah against the US dollar fell below 10000: 1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market once again set off waves, with the Singapore dollar, Malaysian dollar, Thai baht and Philippine peso falling one after another. It was not until April 8 that Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan that Southeast Asian currency markets were temporarily calm. 1997 The financial crisis in Southeast Asia put the Japanese economy, which is closely related to it, into trouble. The exchange rate of Japanese yen dropped from 1 15 at the end of June 1997 to 1 USD at the beginning of April 1998. In May and June, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen fell all the way, once approaching the mark of 150 yen 1 US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation is more uncertain and the Asian financial crisis continues to deepen.

The third stage: 65438+1At the beginning of August, 1998, international speculators launched a new round of attacks on Hong Kong in the face of the turmoil in the American stock market and the continuous decline of the yen exchange rate. Hang Seng Index has been falling to more than 600 points during the financial crisis. The Hong Kong SAR Government retaliated, and the HKMA used the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market, absorbing Hong Kong dollars sold by international speculators and stabilizing the foreign exchange market at the level of 7.75 Hong Kong dollars 1 US dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, international speculators suffered heavy losses and failed to realize their attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super ATM" again. While international speculators lost in Hong Kong, they lost in Russia. 17 On August 7, the Russian Central Bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble against the US dollar to 6.0 ~ 9.5: 1, and postpone the repayment of foreign debts and government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciated by 70%. This led to a sharp drop in the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market, which triggered a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change of Russian policy has greatly hurt international speculators who have invested huge amounts of money in Russian stock market, and has led to the overall violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange markets of American and European stock markets. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still in trouble. 1999, the financial crisis is over.

There are many reasons for the financial crisis from 65438 to 0997. Chinese scholars generally believe that it can be divided into direct trigger factors, internal basic factors and world economic factors.

Direct triggers include:

(1) The impact of hot money in the international financial market. About $7 trillion of international capital flows around the world. Once international speculators find out which country or region is profitable, they will immediately attack the currency of that country or region through speculation to make huge profits in the short term.

(2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain a fixed exchange rate on the one hand and expand financial liberalization on the other, which provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, Thailand deregulated the capital market at 1992 before the financial system was straightened out, which made the short-term capital flow unimpeded and provided conditions for foreign speculators to speculate on the Thai baht.

(3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries have used foreign exchange reserves for a long time to make up for their deficits, resulting in an increase in foreign debt.

(4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of more short-term and medium-term debts, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the domestic foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to make up for it, the devaluation of the country's currency is inevitable.

Internal basic factors include:

(1) Overdraft economy is growing rapidly, and non-performing assets are expanding. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to maintain the speed, these countries turn to foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the poor economic development, by the mid-1990s, some Asian countries were unable to repay their debts. In southeast Asian countries, the bubble blown by real estate only brought bad debts and bad debts of bank loans; As for South Korea, because it is too easy for large enterprises to obtain funds from banks, once the business conditions of enterprises are not good, the non-performing assets will expand immediately. The existence of a large number of non-performing assets in turn affects the confidence of investors.

(2) The market system is immature. First, the government excessively interferes with the allocation of resources, especially the loan investment and projects in the financial system; The other is that the financial system, especially the supervision system, is not perfect.

(3) The defect of "export substitution" mode. The "export substitution" model is an important reason for the economic success of many Asian countries. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, the production cost will increase and the export will be restrained, resulting in the imbalance of international payments in these countries; Second, when this export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will form mutual extrusion; Third, the gradual progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution, and it is impossible to maintain competitiveness simply by relying on the cheap advantages of resources. These countries in Asia have not solved the above problems after achieving rapid growth.

World economic factors mainly include:

(1) The negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises.

(2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced by developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.

The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, without realizing the paper money standard, including:

(1) Enterprises are heavily in debt, banks are heavily in bad debts, and financial debt crises occur frequently;

(2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control;

(3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis;

(4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered;

(5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability.

(6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems.

The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish an authoritative enterprise transaction settlement intermediary system-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, and eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, so as to avoid the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reduce the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promote stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.

Although the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis has its specific internal causes in all countries: the economy continues to overheat, the economic bubble expands, and the blindness of introducing foreign capital-too much short-term foreign debt, imperfect banking system, collusion between banks and enterprises, and large debts of enterprises. The crisis also has its external causes: the "bad" behavior of international speculators, but people should go further and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and the trend of economic globalization.

Liu believes that the financial crisis is the internal content of the capitalist economic crisis, and the world economic panic of 1929- 1933 is preceded by a serious financial crisis. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a capitalist crisis. The possibility of financial crisis lies in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities get out of control and the contradiction between money and money lending intensifies, the financial crisis will be manifested. The modern market economy characterized by highly developed financial activities is itself a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis. Economic globalization and economic integration are another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is the highest form of market economy development beyond national boundaries. With the further development of commodity relations between countries after the Second World War, countries are more interdependent economically, and goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge flow frequently in the international arena.

The trend of economic globalization is more obvious. The globalization of financial activities is an important reason for the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and the leap-forward development of economically backward countries and regions. However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment and the deepening of internal contradictions, the financial crisis will inevitably break out in those weak links with imperfect systems. To sum up, the modern market economy has not only crises caused by overproduction and insufficient demand, but also financial crises caused by uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system. Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system.

The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, in China's current system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economy system regulated by the government, especially to make great efforts to improve the financial system and greatly enhance their ability to prevent endogenous and exogenous financial crises. Abstract: After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis, pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, while Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reasons, that is, the modern monetary credit mechanism led to the crisis. As long as modern market economy exists, the inherent monetary credit mechanism of market economy may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries. This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still prevent the financial crisis by improving the financial system, and Liu pointed out a way to prevent the financial crisis.

cause

1July 2, 997, the Asian financial turmoil swept through Thailand and the Thai baht depreciated. Soon, the storm swept through Malaysia, Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Break the scene of rapid economic development in Asia. The economies of some Asian economic powers began to slump and the political situation in some countries began to be chaotic.

So, what is the cause of the Asian financial turmoil?

After reading a series of reports about the Asian financial turmoil and my own research, I found the following reasons:

1. george soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

2. The influence of American economic interests and policies;

3. The economic model of Asian countries leads to.

One: George? Soros's personal factors and a capitalist group that supports him;

"Financial Predator" and "Sleeping Wolf" are the titles of this financial geek. He once said, "As far as financial operation is concerned, it has no morality or immorality, it is just an operation. Financial market does not belong to the category of morality, it is not immoral, and morality does not exist here at all, because it has its own rules of the game. I am a participant in the financial market. I will play this game according to the established rules. I will not violate these rules, so I won't feel guilty or responsible. Judging from the Asian financial turmoil, whether I speculate or not has no effect on the occurrence of financial events. It will still happen without hype. I don't think it's immoral to speculate in foreign currency. On the other hand, I abide by the operating rules. I respect these rules and care about them. As a moral person who cares about them, I want to ensure that these rules are conducive to building a good society, so I advocate changing some rules. I think some rules need to be improved. If improvement and improvement affect my own interests, I will still support it, because the rules that need to be improved may be the cause of the incident. " As we all know, Soros's hype about Thai baht is the fuse of the Asian financial turmoil. He is an absolutely powerful and capable financier, but it is obviously despicable to achieve his goal of obtaining huge capital by playing with the political power of Asian countries.

Second, the impact of American economic interests and policies:

1949, Oriental Group, the predecessor of New China, was established. As the number one power of capitalism, the United States has a sense of crisis. With strong economic backing, he established a capitalist United front in the Asia-Pacific region: South Korea, Japan, Taiwan Province Province and even Southeast Asia have all become economic dependencies of the United States. This has brought economic support to the rapid development of some Asian countries. In the 1970s, the economies of some countries in Southeast Asia developed rapidly.

However, in 199 1, the disintegration of the Soviet Union marked the disintegration of the Eastern Group. Of course, the United States did not allow the Asian economy to continue to develop like this, so it began to recover economic losses. For Soros's behavior, he is conniving.

Third, the economic model of Asian countries leads to:

Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented countries. They are highly dependent on the world market. The shake of the Asian economy will inevitably lead to a situation that will affect the whole body. Take Thailand as an example. Whether the Thai baht should be bought or sold in the international market is not dominated by the government, and there is not enough foreign exchange reserves. Facing the speculation of financiers, the national economy is vulnerable. The economy determines politics, so the political situation in Thailand is turbulent.

arouse

(1) The openness of a country's economy is based on its strong economic strength and stable political power. Only strong economic strength and stable political power can we talk about real economic development.

(2) Only when economists have a correct outlook on life and values can they promote social progress and development, otherwise they will not be real economists and will hinder economic development.

(3) Only by improving the comprehensive national strength can a country be in an invincible position.

[Edit this paragraph] The seriousness of the global financial crisis

2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis

Also known as financial tsunami, credit crisis and Wall Street tsunami, it was a financial crisis that began to appear on August 9, 2007. Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, investors began to lose confidence in the value of mortgage-backed securities, which triggered a liquidity crisis. Even if many central banks injected huge amounts of money into the financial market many times, they could not stop the outbreak of this financial crisis. Until 2008, the financial crisis began to get out of control, leading to the closure or takeover of many large financial institutions by the government.

The world is facing the worst financial crisis in 60 years.

The current financial crisis is caused by the bubble of American real estate market. In some ways, this financial crisis is similar to other crises that broke out every four years after the end of World War II 10.

However, there are essential differences between financial crises. The current crisis marks the end of the era of credit expansion with the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Other cyclical crises are part of a larger boom-bust process. The current financial crisis is the peak of the super boom cycle that lasted for more than 60 years.

The boom-bust cycle usually revolves around the credit situation and always contains a prejudice or misunderstanding. This is usually a failure to realize that there is a reflexive and circular relationship between the willingness to lend and the value of collateral. If credit is easy to obtain, it will bring demand, which will push up the value of real estate; In turn, this situation increases the amount of available credit. Bubbles occur when people buy real estate and expect to benefit from mortgage refinancing. In recent years, the prosperity of American housing market is a proof. The super boom that lasted for 60 years is a more complicated example.

Whenever the credit expansion is in trouble, the financial authorities take intervention measures to inject liquidity into the market and find other ways to stimulate economic growth. This forms an asymmetric incentive system, the so-called moral hazard, which promotes the increasingly strong expansion of credit. This system was so successful that people began to believe in former US President Ronald? Ronald Reagan called it "the magic of the market"-I called it "market fundamentalism". Fundamentalists believe that the market will tend to be balanced and let market participants pursue their own interests, which is most beneficial to the interests of the same group of people. This is obviously a misunderstanding, because it is not the market itself that keeps the financial market from collapsing, but the intervention of the authorities. However, market fundamentalism began to become the dominant way of thinking in the 1980s, when the financial market was just beginning to globalize and the current account deficit began to appear in the United States.

Globalization has enabled the United States to absorb savings from other parts of the world and consume more than its own output. In 2006, the US current account deficit reached 6.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). By introducing increasingly complex products and more generous terms, financial markets encourage consumers to borrow. Whenever the global financial system is in danger, the financial authorities will intervene and play a role in fueling the situation. Since 1980, the supervision has been relaxed, even to the point of name only.