By investigating the financial data disclosed by the four largest listed shale oil companies in the United States, it is found that the mining cost of shale oil companies in the United States is generally between 36.4 and 47.7 dollars/barrel, which is far from the previous understanding (65 dollars/barrel). The progress of production technology is the main reason for the improvement of production efficiency and the decrease of mining cost of shale oil enterprises in the United States. In addition, the scale effect of large-scale production is also beneficial to reduce the mining cost. At present, the mining cost of crude oil producers has dropped from the high level in 212 to around $3 to $5 per barrel.

from the perspective of market game, the long-term oil price below $42/barrel will have an impact on American shale oil enterprises, forcing some enterprises to withdraw from the market. When the oil price is below $27/barrel, it will hit Saudi crude oil production, which is not conducive to the operation of Saudi oil production enterprises. Therefore, it is in Saudi Arabia's interest for oil prices to run in the price range of $ 27-42/barrel; But > $42/barrel is in the interest of the United States. Based on the above understanding, it may be more accurate to predict the future oil price trend.