There are many factors that affect the supply and demand of palm oil. The international trade situation, international energy price, exchange rate, prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and other related substitutes will all lead to changes in palm oil prices, which makes palm oil prices fluctuate frequently and violently. From May 38, 2006 to June 2003, domestic palm oil rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 6307 yuan/ton, an increase of 86%; Since then, it has dropped from 6293 yuan/ton in March 2004 to 4 195 yuan/ton in February 2005, a decrease of 33%; After 1 years of consolidation, it began to rise in April 2006, and the price in April 2007 was 6600 yuan/ton, up 57%.
Among the vegetable oil varieties, the correlation between soybean oil and rapeseed oil price changes is high, while the correlation between palm oil and soybean oil and rapeseed oil price changes is much smaller. The statistical results from 2003 to 2006 showed that the correlation coefficients of palm oil and soybean oil were 0.728, 0.725 and 0.953 respectively. In terms of price difference, from 2003 to 2006, the price difference between palm oil and soybean oil ranged from -450 yuan to -2000 yuan/ton, between palm oil and rapeseed oil from -550 yuan to -2350 yuan/ton, while the price difference between soybean oil and rapeseed oil was only-130 yuan to 450 yuan/ton.
Domestic spot long-term trading of palm oil
There are many domestic palm oil production, trade and consumption enterprises with developed circulation links. In the spot market, not only traditional transactions are conducted, but also various forms of electronic transactions are conducted by relying on the Internet, including B2B mode, online bidding, auction, and long-term warehouse receipt transactions. Among them, Shanghai Bulk Agricultural Products E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Shanghai Zhonghao Youzi Commercial Co., Ltd.) conducts long-term palm oil transactions in the form of electronic warehouse receipts, fully drawing on the trading, delivery and settlement systems in the futures market.
Trend of palm oil price in international market
In recent 20 years, the international palm oil price fluctuated greatly, which was similar to the price trend of vegetable oil such as soybean oil. The lowest price of Malaysian crude oil palm oil futures appeared at 1986. At that time, the global oil seed harvest, especially the soybean harvest in the United States, led to the suppression of all vegetable oil prices, including soybean oil, and palm oil prices showed a phased low. With the occurrence of several severe global weather events, such as El Ni? o and La Ni? a, which affected the global vegetable oil production, the price of palm oil rose several times, including 1988 and 1994, and the price rose from 800 RM/ ton to 1400- 1600. 1999, due to the continuous disastrous weather, oil seed production was reduced, and the supply of vegetable oil was tight, but the demand increased unprecedentedly, and the expansion of output could not keep up with the growth of demand, resulting in the palm oil price reaching a historical high of 2600RM/ ton. By the end of April 2007, the price of palm oil in Malaysia Stock Exchange was about RM 2,200/ton.