In 20 10, the price of mineral products showed a rapid rebound trend, and the comprehensive price level rose by 28.3% year-on-year (Figure 44). Although the price dropped in the third quarter, the price of mineral products rose again in the fourth quarter, and some mineral products approached or even exceeded the level before the financial crisis. First, affected by the financial crisis, the price of mineral products was relatively low in the same period last year. With the slow recovery of the world economy, the price of mineral products began to pick up. Secondly, the rapid and stable operation of BRICS economies such as China in the first quarter stimulated the demand for mineral resources; Thirdly, the new real estate policy in April and the storm of energy saving and emission reduction in June temporarily suppressed the demand for mineral resources, which made the price of mineral products fall back in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, with the release of pent-up demand, prices began to rise. On a monthly basis, the prices of aluminum, an important energy and metal mineral product, have risen to varying degrees except for a slight decline, and are in a high consolidation state; The prices of important nonmetals fell further due to the financial crisis, but in the third quarter, they began to get out of the financial crisis and the prices tended to rise.
Figure 44 Annual comprehensive price changes of mineral products
(2) Energy prices are rising rapidly.
The price of crude oil rose rapidly. The spot price of Daqing crude oil averaged 78. 1 USD/barrel, up 45.5% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, it shows a fluctuating upward trend. It rose from $76.9/barrel in June 5438+ 10 to $84.4/barrel in April, and then fell back to $72.7/barrel in July. It began to rise slowly in August, and the average price rose to 9 1.2 USD/barrel in June 5438+February, and reached 93.7 USD/barrel in February 30 (the average spot price of new york crude oil in the United States was 78.4 USD/barrel in the same period, up 31.6% year-on-year; On a monthly basis, it is in a state of shock adjustment, rising from 79.2 USD/barrel in 65438+ 10 to 84.4 USD/barrel in April, then returning to 73.6 USD/barrel in May, and rising to 89. 1 USD/barrel in 65438+February and 65438+February. The sharp rise in oil prices is mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar, which has stimulated the market's risk appetite for crude oil futures and investors' optimistic expectations for economic recovery. Because 20 10 global crude oil supply and demand balance. According to the latest report of IEA, the global demand for crude oil in 20 10 was 86.6 million barrels per day, an increase of10.6 million barrels per day compared with 2009. The increase in crude oil demand mainly comes from non-OECD countries, especially non-OECD countries in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for more than half of the increase in world demand. However, due to the weak demand in OECD countries, especially in Europe, the demand for crude oil decreased by 654.38 million barrels per day compared with 2009, only 45.4 million barrels per day. During the year, the adjustment of crude oil price was mainly due to the Greek debt crisis, the recession of the whole European economy, the recovery of the American real economy, and the geopolitical instability of Kyrgyzstan and North Korea. The Iranian issue is also one of the important reasons. The western camp led by the United States insisted on imposing sanctions on Iran, and Iran threatened that if the United States further strengthened sanctions, it might interrupt oil exports. Although the abundant stocks in OECD countries and the surplus capacity of 6 million barrels in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have weakened the concerns about Iran's interruption of exports to a certain extent, if the Iranian problem worsens, it will still stimulate the sensitive nerves of the international crude oil market. Since the Gulf War in 2003, sectarian conflicts in Iraq have been frequent and the situation has been turbulent. In addition, natural disasters in Europe, the United States and China are also important factors affecting oil prices.
Figure 45 Crude oil price trend at home and abroad
In sharp contrast with the crude oil price, the domestic refined oil price has been on the rise since 2005, and its correlation with the economy is weak, even during the financial crisis, it was only slightly lowered. From 3.76 yuan/liter in March 2005 to 7. 17 yuan/liter in February 2000, the increase rate is 90.7% (Figure 46), which is 1.5 times of the international crude oil price increase rate (60%) in the same period. The growth rate of refined oil prices is much higher than that of international crude oil prices.
Figure 46 Changes of domestic refined oil prices
Coal prices fluctuated and rose. The average closing price of domestic high-quality coal was 723 yuan/ton, up 25.2% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the average monthly price dropped from 773 yuan/ton in 65438+ 10 to 660 yuan/ton in March, and gradually rose to 727 yuan/ton in June, which was relatively balanced in July and August, and fell slightly to 692 yuan/ton in September, and began to rise again in 65438+ 10/0. Due to the sharp increase in demand from China, India and other emerging countries, large Japanese steel companies such as Nippon Steel and JFE have recently reached an agreement with BHP Billiton to raise coal prices. From April to June, the price of coal rose to $200 per ton, which was 55% higher than that in 2009, causing the price of coal to pick up in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the state began to regulate and control industries such as iron and steel, electric power, building materials and chemical industry, and all localities increased their efforts to eliminate industries with high energy consumption such as ironmaking, steelmaking and cement. Especially in May this year, the State Council issued the Notice on Further Intensifying Work to Ensure the Realization of the Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Targets in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Under the government's policy goal of eliminating backward production capacity, the above-mentioned high-energy-consuming industries have been strongly regulated, and the above four industries are the main coal-consuming industries, accounting for more than 70% of the total coal consumption; The abundant water in each basin has greatly increased hydropower generation, but also weakened the growth of thermal power generation to a certain extent, resulting in the decline of coal demand and coal price. In the fourth quarter, winter came, and the increase in heating demand led to a rebound in coal prices.
Figure 47 Domestic price trend of high-quality coal
(3) The metal price fluctuated and rose.
Copper prices fluctuated and rose. The domestic copper price averaged 59,000 yuan/ton, up 39.9% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, the average monthly price shows a trend of shock adjustment. In June, the average price was 60,200 yuan/ton, and the fluctuation narrowed to 53,000 yuan/ton in June, and then rose to 66,400 yuan/ton in February. In the same period, the spot price trend of copper in London metal market was similar to that in China, with an average price of $7,522/ton, up 45.6% year-on-year. The average price of copper in 65438+February has risen to 8973 USD/ton, exceeding the highest level of 87 14 USD/ton before the financial crisis (Figure 48).
The rapid rise of 20 10 copper price exceeded global expectations, and the copper price quickly approached and surpassed the highest price before the financial crisis. However, the global economic downturn, especially in Europe, has reduced the demand for copper, and the copper market is overheated. With the gradual increase of output, the shortage of supply will turn into surplus, and the copper price will fall. However, in the third quarter, China's copper production tends to decline, but the demand is not reduced, and copper prices are rising. The domestic copper price is generally 500 ~ 1000 USD/ton higher than the international copper price, so the import of copper should be appropriately increased to reduce the domestic copper price.
The bottleneck of copper supply is the main driving force for the rapid rise of copper prices. Due to strikes or accidents in copper mines in Chile and other countries, as well as the decline in the grade of original copper mines, the increase in copper concentrate production is limited; Due to the limited growth of copper production, the capacity of copper smelters needs waste copper to make up for it. However, due to the limited recovery of European and American economies, especially real estate, the supply of scrap copper is also relatively tight, which makes copper the scarcest of all non-ferrous metals. At the same time, although the inventory of the exchange has increased, it is far below the highest level in history. At present, the inventory consumption days of the London Stock Exchange are only 7.8 days, which is lower than the average of 8.7 days since 2000. If production inventory is added, the consumption days are 3 to 4 weeks, which is lower than the historical level of 5 to 6 weeks.
Figure 48 copper price trend at home and abroad
The price of aluminum rose slowly. Domestic aluminum price averaged 1.560 yuan/ton, up 9.7% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the monthly average price shows a downward trend, with the highest average price at 1.68 million yuan/ton. After the fluctuation adjustment from February to May, it fell to 1.44 million yuan/ton in June, and then began to rise again, rising to 1.60 million yuan in February. In the same period, the change trend of spot price of aluminum in London metal market was similar to that in China, and the average price in the same period was 265,438+068 USD/ton, up 29.4% year-on-year. The average monthly price fluctuated from $2,230/ton in June to 1922/ton in June, and then rose to 231/dollar/ton in February (Figure 49). The main reason for the fluctuation of aluminum price is that the global inventory has increased from 6 weeks to about 9 weeks; The increase in the third quarter was mainly due to the optimistic results of European bank stress tests, the rise of the euro and the decline of the US dollar index, and the funds were relatively loose.
Figure 49 Trend of Aluminum Price at Home and Abroad
Iron ore prices have risen sharply. Domestic Hebei iron ore price (66% fine ore) averaged 1 19 1 yuan/ton, up 52.4% year-on-year; The monthly price fluctuation rose from 964 yuan/ton in 65438+1October to 1275 yuan/ton in April, then it was adjusted back to 1067 yuan/ton in July, and then rose to 1396 yuan in 65438+February. The average CIF price of iron ore was 127.8 USD/ton, up 6 1. 1% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the average monthly price is on the rise. The average price of1May showed a rapid upward trend, from 1.365438 USD/ton to 89.8 USD/ton; From June to August, the average price did not change much, fluctuating around1USD 40/ton, and then the price rose further, reaching1USD 46.1ton in February, which was close to the level before the financial crisis (Figure 50). From the perspective of the whole year, the increase of iron ore demand in China and the change of iron ore pricing mechanism from annual pricing to quarterly pricing are the main reasons for the increase of iron ore prices. The fluctuation of transportation cost led to the increase of CIF price of iron ore in the first quarter. Japanese steel enterprises reached a preliminary agreement with Tamsui River Valley, and the payment per ton of iron ore in the second quarter was about 105 USD/ton (FOB), which was 90% higher than that in the fiscal year of 2009, resulting in a further increase in the CIF price of iron ore in the second quarter. China's new real estate policy and iron and steel smelting's forced production restriction and shutdown policy to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction temporarily reduced the demand for iron ore, resulting in the iron ore price stopping rising or even slightly decreasing in the third quarter. The export ban in Karnataka, southern India, reduced the supply to the China market, and at the same time raised concerns that the ban would be extended to the whole country of India, which was the main reason for the increase in iron ore prices in the fourth quarter. In addition, the policies of restricting the export of resources introduced by various countries are also an important factor in the rise of iron ore prices. 20 10 on April 23rd, Iran banned the export of iron ore containing 66% iron. On April 29th, India announced that it would raise the export tariff of iron ore lump ore from 10% to 15%. On April 30th, the Ministry of Railways of India raised the railway freight for exporting iron ore by 100 rubles/ton again. On May 3rd, the Australian government announced that it plans to levy a resource lease tax of up to 40% on local resource enterprises from July 20 12.
Figure 50 Iron ore price trend
Column 13 iron ore negotiation mechanism changed from annual pricing to quarterly pricing.
The annual iron ore price negotiation first started at 198 1. After negotiations between iron ore suppliers and consumers, the two sides decided the iron ore price for a fiscal year. According to the traditional negotiation habits for many years, the international iron ore market is divided into Asian market and European market, and the Asian price and European price are determined respectively. The Asian market is mainly represented by China and Japan, and the European market is represented by German users.
There are three main iron ore suppliers: Rio Tinto in Australia, BHP Billiton and Vale in Brazil. According to the negotiation practice in previous years, once the price of any supplier and any steel mill is agreed, this year's iron ore negotiation will be over, and other suppliers and buyers will accept this price as the new annual price, that is, the initial price.
However, significant changes have taken place in the negotiations since 2008. On February 18, 2008, Nippon Steel took the lead in reaching an agreement with Vale on the benchmark prices of two kinds of iron ore in fiscal year 2008, in which the price of southern iron concentrate increased by 65% and that of Karagas powder increased by 7 1%. This has changed the previous practice of "the same variety and the same increase". In 2009, the rules of the game were threatened to be completely broken, and the first order was not reached until the end of May this year. 20 10 BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale have successively reached final or temporary agreements based on quarterly pricing with most customers around the world. So far, the three major international miners have formed a United front in iron ore pricing, and the traditional long-term association mechanism has been completely broken. "Changing a long contract into a short contract" has always been the goal pursued by BHP Billiton in recent years. With the support and participation of Vale and Rio Tinto, this round of negotiations has finally taken an important step to establish a quarterly pricing mechanism.
In fact, iron ore suppliers put forward index pricing several years ago, which is a disguised spot price. At present, the iron ore price index is compiled according to the CIF price of China port, but the spot trading of iron ore only accounts for 20% of the shipping market, mainly in China market, and there is basically no spot market in Japan and Europe. There are already benchmark prices and index prices in the market, and now more and more iron ores are settled at spot market prices. Among them, BHP Billiton's iron ore sold in the spot market has accounted for more than 20% of the total, while it used to be only 10%. Vale is also increasing its share in the spot market.
The main reasons for the change of iron ore negotiation mechanism are as follows: First, the relationship between supply and demand has changed greatly. With the gradual recovery of the world economy, the global demand for iron ore is rising, and the price is bound to rise. The three major miners chose the pricing mechanism that is beneficial to the interests of suppliers. Second, affected by the financial crisis, the spot market price of iron ore rose too much, even more than doubled. During the financial crisis, the prices of raw materials in the international market fell sharply, and some steel enterprises turned to the spot market to buy cheaper iron ore. However, after the economic recovery, the demand increased greatly and the spot market price rose, so steel mills once again chose to buy iron ore at the long-term cooperative price. Third, the development of iron ore spot market provides a reference price for quarterly pricing. The spot market has developed rapidly in recent years. It is conservatively estimated that the trading volume of the spot market has accounted for at least 10% of the total trading volume of iron ore. Fourth, there are many financial speculators behind the changes in iron ore pricing mechanism. They have seen the great potential and value of iron ore, which in their eyes already has the financial attributes of gold, oil and other commodities.
The financialization of iron ore prices has begun. In May 2008, Deutsche Bank launched the iron ore swap. In May 2009, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Barclays jointly launched cash-settled iron ore speculation. At present, there are three major iron ore indexes in the world, namely TSI index of Global Iron and Steel News, MBIO index of Metal Herald and Platts index of Platts Energy Information, all of which take China demand as the main reference index, but China has no say in financial indexes.
The annual pricing mechanism of iron ore is changed to quarterly pricing mechanism, which has great influence on China's steel industry. First, the price instability of iron ore increases, and the short-term price fluctuates greatly; Second, the cost of China iron and steel enterprises has further increased, and the profit space has narrowed; Third, the rise in international iron ore prices has become one of the channels to introduce imported inflation; Fourth, China pays a large amount of foreign exchange reserves every year, which has a negative impact on China's economic development.
The price of gold continues to rise. The domestic gold price averaged 267 yuan/gram for the whole year, up 25.0% year-on-year, and maintained a steady upward trend. On a monthly basis, the average monthly price showed a steady upward trend, rising from 247.8 yuan/gram in 65438+1month to 295 yuan/gram in 65438+February, and rising to 304 yuan/gram on February 7, 65438+February. The price trend of London Gold Exchange is basically the same as that of China, with the average price of 1225 USD/oz in the same period, up 25.9% year-on-year, and rising steadily. The average monthly price is gradually increasing, from117.9 USD/oz in June 5438+February to139/kloc-0 USD/oz, from June 5438+February 7 to June 5438+048. The main reason for the rapid rise of gold prices is that the economic performance of the United States, the most important country affecting gold prices, is weak, which has caused investors to worry about the market; Second, although the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the credit crisis in the euro zone have been solved by the corresponding governments, many investors' trust in the market has been greatly reduced, which has greatly increased the safe-haven charm of gold; Third, from the perspective of Asia, September and 10 are the months with the most holidays in China and India, two major Asian countries. The increase in physical gold consumption demand also drives the price of gold to rise; Fourth, the geopolitical instability between the DPRK and the ROK has increased the attractiveness of investing in gold; Fifth, the international gold price's two spurts are inseparable from the expectation that the two major currencies, the US dollar and the euro, will depreciate sharply. From April to June, under the influence of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone, the euro fell again and again, while gold kept setting new records. 109-June, the Federal Reserve continuously released the signal of continuing to expand liquidity, setting off a new round of dollar selling frenzy. The international gold price at the other end of the seesaw has rewritten the historical record of closing price 12 times in just one month.
Figure 5 1 Trend of Gold Price at Home and Abroad
The price of rare earths has returned. Since 2003, with the steady development of the global economy, the price of mineral products has entered a rapid rising channel, but the price of China's dominant mineral products, especially rare earth products, has risen slowly, in sharp contrast to the rapidly rising prices of gold, silver, iron, copper and aluminum. The low price seriously deviates from the precious rare earth resources.
Since the beginning of the new century, the price of rare earth has fallen rapidly, and it has only picked up slightly since 2006. From 1990 to 2005, the export volume of rare earths in China increased by nearly 10 times, but the average price was reduced to 64% of the original price, and the price increased after 2006. The long-term low price of rare earth is in sharp contrast with the rising price of other mineral products.
Except for 20 10 years, the prices of important rare earth products such as cerium oxide and yttrium oxide exported by China are far lower than those in the 1990s, while the price of rare earth chloride has remained at a low level. For example, in 2009, the average export price of cerium oxide was only 65.5% of 1996, that of yttrium oxide was only 38.6% of 1996, and that of rare earth chloride was only 56.2% of 1993. The price of precious rare earth resources did not rise but fell, and the price of rare earth resources obviously deviated. In 20 10, the price of rare earth rose sharply after China took more resolute control measures (Figure 52).
Figure 52 Price Changes of Important Rare Earth Products
(4) Non-metallic price fluctuation adjustment
Price fluctuation adjustment of potassium chloride. The average annual price of potassium chloride in China is 2996 yuan/ton, down 22.8% year-on-year. From a monthly perspective, the average monthly price shows a trend of falling first and then rising. From 65438+2800 yuan/ton in 10 to 2400 yuan/ton in July, and then to 2800 yuan/ton in 65438+February (Figure 53). The decline before July reflects the lag of nonmetals in coping with the financial crisis, and the price increase in August shows that potassium chloride has the potential to get rid of the financial crisis.
The fluctuation of cement price has intensified. The annual average price of cement was 324.4 yuan/ton, up 3.4% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, the cement price did not change much in the first three quarters, basically fluctuating between 3 10 ~ 320 yuan/ton; Prices rose rapidly in the fourth quarter, with the average price reaching 36 1.2 yuan ton in June 5438+February (Figure 54), and some areas such as Xinjiang and Southwest even surpassed 500 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the price increase in the fourth quarter are as follows: 1. On June 20 10, the State Council issued a notice on printing and distributing a comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction. In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction, some cement kiln factories have reduced production or even stopped production, resulting in a decline in production capacity. Second, production costs have risen. The oil shortage in the middle and late September of 2065438+00 increased the cost of diesel, and the increase of coal price and the cancellation of electricity price concessions also increased the production cost of cement.
Figure 53 Domestic price changes of potassium chloride
Figure 54 cement price changes