In addition, just last week, 65438+February 14, Pilbara completed the auction of lithium concentrate 13, and the transaction price was 7505 USD/ton FOB, which was 3.84 lower than the auction price of 7805 USD/ton FOB of 65438+1October 16.
Although the price of lithium carbonate has been falling continuously, the price of P mine, which is regarded as the "long-term barometer of lithium salt price in the industry", has also fallen. However, there are still obvious differences on the answer to the question whether the price of lithium will fall in the future.
_ Optimist: The normal fluctuation of lithium price in off-season will still be high.
The bulls pointed out that the current decline of lithium carbonate is only "with the normal fluctuation of the industry off-season, not the inflection point of the price", and it is expected that the high price of lithium carbonate will last for a long time.
For example, Ping An Securities 65438+February 18 reported that the 3.84% decline of P Mine was "not significant (the price is still at a historical high)". At present, the upsurge of installing new energy vehicles has ended at the end of the year, and the demand for electricity market is gradually weakening. Superimposed Q 1 next year is the traditional off-season, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened; Moreover, the battery factory has a certain inventory, which is mainly consumed at present, which leads to the recent decline in the unit price of lithium carbonate trade, which belongs to the normal fluctuation before the off-season of the industry.
Cicc65438+February 18 research report also gave a similar view: the price of lithium concentrate fell for the first time this year, and the auction price of lithium concentrate also fell in July this year. Historically, the auction price of lithium concentrate often follows the change of spot price of lithium salt, and it does not have a significant lead. Therefore, the decline in the auction price is mainly based on the background of domestic lithium price adjustment.
When talking about the future trend of industry prices, many analysts believe that the release of supply is slow, the inflection point of supply and demand may be delayed, and the operating cycle of lithium price is prolonged, which is still expected to maintain a high center.
_ Caution: Demand will remain weak and oversupply is coming.
In the recent decline in lithium prices, the answer given by the bears is roughly the same as that given by the opposite party-
Qu, an analyst of lithium industry in Shanghai New Energy Division, said that the change of auction price of P mine can only be regarded as the cost and emotional guidance in the market, and the leading factor of price decline still comes from the relationship between supply and demand.
However, there are different views on the market outlook, terminal consumption and price trend.
Ma Rui, an analyst of SMM Lithium Cobalt, predicted that the upstream lithium salt factory still had a strong willingness to stand at a high price years ago, but considering the overall decline in subsidies and the off-season of terminal consumption in the first quarter, terminal consumption may still weaken further, and the overall price may show a slight downward trend.
Qu also pointed out that in the case of weak demand and relatively sufficient supply, product prices may still fall.
In addition, Zheshang Securities' February 14 report 14 clearly gives the calculation data of "supply or surplus". By comparing the release of new supply and demand in each quarter in 2023, the trend of lithium price is judged from the marginal point of view:
In terms of resources, it is estimated that in 2023, the 44 major lithium resource projects in the world will bring 5.7 million tons, 6.6 million tons, 10.0 tons and1290,000 tons respectively, with a total annual supply increase of 352,000 tons. From the demand side, it is estimated that the new demand of Q 1-Q4 in 2023 will be 5.7, 6.3, 73 and 82,000 tons of LCE respectively, and the total demand will increase by 276,000 tons of CLE.
The balance of supply and demand in each quarter is -0. 1, 0.4, 2.6 and 47,000 tons LCE respectively, and the marginal oversupply will appear in the second half of 2023.
_ How to observe the inflection point?
Generally speaking, the rapid explosion of lithium consumption driven by the demand of new energy terminals in recent years and the relative rigidity of mine terminal production capacity are the core contradictions of lithium price fluctuation. Brokers pointed out that in terms of time and space, it is currently in the second half of the second round of upward cycle of lithium price since 20 16.
So, when will the turning point come? The expectations of all parties are still uneven, but the suggestion of China Merchants Futures can focus on several signals:
In the next few quarters, the increase rhythm of overseas and domestic large-scale lithium mines, and the marginal changes in the demand for power batteries and materials in the middle reaches; Long-term influence of new technology on lithium material system. These include:
(1) The supply recovery of new production projects and production reduction projects has high certainty: the supply is still the core factor affecting the current round of lithium price loosening. Q4 in 2022-Q3 in 2023 will usher in the peak period of global investment/expansion of new lithium mine projects;
(2) The terminal demand intensity analysis focuses on the verification value of inventory changes: the marginal decline in demand is expected to be a short-term reality, but it is expected to maintain a high growth rate, and the negative impact on lithium prices is expected to be less than the previous round. The change of supply and demand forces causes three marginal stages of price inflection point: supply ↑+demand ↓; Inventory ↑; At present, the futures price is still in the early stage of the first stage, and it is expected that the inventory level will rise in the future, but it is meaningful for verification and trend confirmation.
(3) Pay attention to the long-term influence of new technologies such as sodium battery on lithium material system: 2023 is the first year of sodium battery industrialization. In the current situation of high lithium price, it is necessary to pay attention to the long-term impact of the space for improving the permeability of sodium batteries on the demand for lithium products.