Since February 9th, when domestic refined oil products fell for the first time in the year, American crude oil production reached a new high, and the number of active crude oil drilling platforms in the United States increased greatly, which deepened the concern that crude oil production would continue to rise, and oil prices fell sharply to the lowest point in the past two months. However, due to the reduction of crude oil production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the willingness of oil-producing countries to further reduce production, the international oil price fluctuated and rose.
As of the close of February 23rd, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.78 USD to 63.55 USD per barrel, with an increase of 1.23%. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery rose 0.92 USD to 67.3/kloc-0 USD per barrel, with an increase of 65,438+0.39%.
According to Jin Lianchuang's calculation, as of the sixth working day on February 23rd, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 6 1.7 USD/barrel, with a change rate of -6.4 1%, corresponding to the downward adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices by 230 yuan/ton, and the current price adjustment window was at 24: 00 on February 28th. The change rate of crude oil monitored by Zhuochuang Information is -4.98%, and the retail price of gasoline and diesel oil is correspondingly lowered by 2 16 yuan per ton.
Li Yang, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, believes that although the rise in crude oil has offset a certain decline, there are only three working days left, and it is unlikely that crude oil will continue to rise in the later period. Therefore, there is no big suspense in the "two consecutive declines" in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. According to the current crude oil price level, after this retail price reduction, the increase since 20 18 will be completely erased, showing a downward trend. This year, it has experienced three price adjustment windows, including two upward adjustments and one downward adjustment, and the cumulative gasoline and diesel are increased by 75 yuan per ton.
Yuan Yuan, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, also said that up to now, although the international oil price has rebounded, the upward momentum of the oil price is insufficient, the US crude oil production is relatively large, and the market is still dominated by bad news, and the oil price will decrease steadily in the future. Now the change rate is in the negative range, and the amplitude is large, so this round of refined oil will face a continuous downward adjustment with great probability.