/kloc-in the early morning of 0/4, two oil facilities in Saudi Aramco were attacked and caused fires. As the most influential oil exporter in the world, the attack has reduced Saudi Aramco's oil production by half, which will also have an impact on international oil prices. Is the attack on Saudi oil good or bad? Positive mood.

The attack will affect the crude oil production of 5.7 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 5% of the global daily production. Because the attack occurred at the weekend when the international market was closed, the impact on oil prices could not be directly reflected. But for the oil market that has already opened the floodgates, this is undoubtedly a blockbuster.

At present, affected by the global economy, oil demand has been sluggish, leading to overcapacity. Emotionally, the attack on Saudi oil is good for the oil sector, but it is only short-term speculation and should not be chased.

Before the attack, the price of crude oil futures has been in a state of shock, which also reflects the expectation of excess fundamentals. Now Saudi oil facilities are under attack. If the capacity loss is too large, the balance between oil supply and demand will be affected, and the price of crude oil futures will inevitably rise. However, as production reduction is a long-term process, IEA will not take any quick action in the short term, and everything is still under observation, depending on the change of production capacity.

The above predictions need to be confirmed and evaluated. We can't jump to conclusions yet. After all, the market is volatile, and it is unstable to be long or short.