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The deepest feeling of a professional investor: what is the essence of stocks?
Take your time and read carefully, and maybe you will realize something. . . . . In the following text, I will put forward some ideas that look different and even weird enough to shock orthodox "investors". I hope to agree with my friends to continue reading, but I don't agree with them to laugh it off, don't take it seriously, don't try to change your opinion through debate, and don't curse angrily. I will be happy to have a little tolerance and sympathy for my point of view. Because my speech is thoughtful. What I said may be incorrect, or I may tell everything I know, but I promise I am telling the truth. It should be noted that if you have more than ten years of stock theory and practical skills, my words may be easier for you to understand; If you are a beginner, it is more appropriate to read these words later, but now you might as well continue reading according to my ideas. In order to simplify the complicated situation, I will have to draw a direct conclusion somewhere. Because there are many schools of stock trading, there may be "professionals" standing up and "criticizing and correcting" anywhere. I'm sorry that such a discussion may make this book deviate from the theme and go too far on side issues. Remember that what I'm talking about here is my personal opinion and cognition, and it's normal that some places don't even conform to your idea as a whole. We must start with the most fundamental question: what is a stock? What is the essence of stock? This question seems so simple and basic, but it has become more and more vague in the past two hundred years. In the eyes of speculators, stocks, commodity futures, oil, US dollars and even stock index futures are all given a unified name called "chips". "Chip" is the prop of currency magician! In the era of electronic trading, you can call it electronic symbols and game weights. These same electronic symbols, in the eyes of "value investors", have aristocratic lineage: their "one share" represents an enterprise, its corporate culture and industry status, the personal charm of its chairman, its investment value and development prospects, and a hen that can lay golden eggs ... In short, it has been endowed with too many sacred meanings. In a country ruled by atheism, the feelings and expectations of "value investors" for the "shares" they bought are similar to the worship of God by God's people. As we all know, Warren Buffett, the contemporary American stock god, is a master of the "value investment school". His teachers, Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher, are the founders of the Value Investment School. Everyone knows that Buffett and his two teachers are not exactly the same. There are differences between them. But what is certain is that Buffett, Graham and Fisher have made pioneering contributions to the value investment theory, thus embarking on a new technical analysis route completely different from the "Dow Theory" and focusing on individual stocks. Their ideas and methods deeply influenced William O 'Neill and Peter Lynch, the top investment masters, who later became all-powerful on Wall Street. Unfortunately, however, the investment environment in the United States is unique, just as Buffett himself is unique. It was the United States that created Buffett, and Graham's value investment theory was born in the economic soil of the United States, just as Hongkong created Li Ka-shing and Taiwan Province Province created Wang Yongqing. When these people are young and middle-aged, as long as they change their positions and move their nests, they will die silently like crops planted in saline-alkali land. Personally, I think that copying the value investment theory in other countries outside the United States is exactly what will happen. No country in the world is as dynamic as the United States, with almost endless innovation, and has maintained economic prosperity for such a long time on the basis of innovation. Look at the great enterprises that dominate the world industry. Those "1000 times shares" and "1000 times shares" that once grew at a high speed were born in the United States in batches: Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, General Electric, Wal-Mart and so on. In addition, hundreds of small and medium-sized enterprises appear as "ten times shares"! Why is it strange that people like Graham and Buffett live in such a big environment? Although Graham selflessly wrote his life experiences and theories in three books: Securities Analysis, Interpretation of Financial Statements and Smart Investors, can future generations master these flexible theories like his author? Buffett is by far the oldest entrepreneur, financier and investor living in this world. How does he pass on his life experience to future generations? These people may not appear in 500 years, they are unrepeatable! Believers of "value investors" are in danger of collectively becoming "pseudo-value investors". Fortunately, the top traders with excellent performance in the world are rarely value investors, and most of them belong to another kind of people that this book will focus on-"professional speculators", represented by Victor Sparandi. So far, their team is huge and outstanding, which is beyond the reach of ordinary "value investors". More importantly, the results of "professional speculators" represented by Victor Spalanti can be copied, and their analytical methods can also be taught through training (referring to the primary and basic content, advanced technology and experience have to be understood by themselves)! Therefore, it goes without saying that China investors are more suitable for the two factions who often quarrel and compete for "orthodoxy": in China, professional speculation is the king of surfing! To sum up, a ground-breaking conclusion is drawn: China's so-called "value investors" may be people who have never even entered the stock market. Although some of them have made money, even a lot of money, they are not confident about the money they have made, because he doesn't know whether he can replicate his success in the next transaction! The so-called confidence in holding shares for a long time is often tested and tortured because of blindness and lack of sense of direction. This ambivalence is more prominent in China stock market. They are blind and lazy.